Best Year Ever

I never really watched those Best Year Ever shows on VH1, I spent most of my TV time in college watching four straight hours of live SportsCenter  and trying to notice the difference in Josh Elliott’s jokes or Hannah Storm’s wardrobe (miss you Josh!). If I had to pick a best year ever, it would probably 1999. I was in 6^th grade, ruled the Allen W. Roberts Elementary School playground, danced with a girl for the first time at a full arm’s-length distance, and dominated the Little League diamond for the last time. It was also the first time I played fantasy football, and my life has never been the same since.

The first pick in my first-ever draft was Brett Favre, because my buddy was a huge Packer fan (he also took Ryan Longwell in the fourth round). My first round pick was Marshall Faulk, and I won the championship. Unfortunately, things have gone mostly downhill from there in my fantasy career. I’ve made it well-publicized that I am the only non-Kimmel league member who has yet to make the playoffs, and that is what I consider success in our league. Once the playoffs start, anything can happen. Hell, Alan or a Yahoo-drafted team could win it all. But if you make the playoffs, you should be happy with your season.

That’s why this year will be the Best Year Ever: I am guaranteeing that I make the playoffs. That’s the reason for me anyway. For the rest of the contenders for the Stevens Bowl, and also Bennett, here are some more reasons:

Esco Is Commissioner

Joseph’s reign as commish was highlighted mainly by excellent division names, and there is absolutely something to be said for that. Ajay’s one-year term was marked by laziness and his team making a surprise run to the Stevens Bowl thanks to some fortuitous waiver wire positioning (conspiracy theory?).

With Esco in charge, I feel like we will get more effort than we got from Ajay and more ethics than we got from Nick. The creation of our league would be a nice first step considering we’re a month away from the draft, but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. It’s not like he can lose the alcohol exemption for the league.

Switching From ESPN to Yahoo

After three years in its current format (and at least six years of Fiji fantasy leagues that I’ve been a part of), FALAFEL will move from ESPN to Yahoo. There are clearly some upsides which I will discuss a little later, but let’s not forget what we’ll miss without Yahoo: the generic team helmet logos, the 20 character team name limits, the player updates that are 3-5 days old, and the only reason to visit a website with an exclamation point in its name (until Josh Schultz starts his own website that just has this image).

Alan Has A Girlfriend

In case I need to expand any further, he’s having sex. With a girl. On the reg. So much that his dick hurts. But also feels good. Because of all the sex.

Unlimited Length of Team Names

My team name idea two years ago was BarnardShavedHisFaceWithAlansBallRazor, which falls into the “funny because it’s true category,” along with “I never thought my sister would find someone who cared about what other people thought as much as she did - until I met Craig.” It never came to fruition, and my team suffered a disappointing 8^th place finish.

This year, there is no character limit on team names, and therefore no limit to the depravity that can come from our former-former commissioner. I have very high expectations from this league, so hopefully we can avoid “ajay” winning best team name in 2012.

Bennett Looks To Extend His Record 12-Game Losing Streak

This has not gotten nearly enough attention: After winning Week 1 against AGD, Bennett lost an insane 12 weeks in a row. He didn’t just lose, he was destroyed, dropping his games by an average of 25 points per week. I honestly hope we don’t see anything like this ever again, as I respect this league, but I am interested to see how far Bennett can take this. If I were him I would skip the draft entirely and trust that ESPN picks a better team.

Free Agent Auction

This is the single most exciting aspect of our league this year. My baseball keeper league switched to this three years ago, and it has made the regular season infinitely more exciting. Not only do we remove the inane process of rewarding the worst team in the league with the best shot at landing free agents, but we get bidding wars for four months after the initial auction. This will inevitably lead to Lutz outbidding Zacherman by $1 for Joe McKnight, and more enjoyably, Barnard dropping $50 for Donte Stallworth as no one else bids. There is nothing I am looking forward to more than this process…

State of the NFL

…Except maybe this. The top three RBs this year are Arian, Rice and LeSean in some order. The top five QBs are Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Cam and Stafford. The top WR is Calvin and the top TEs are Gronk and Graham. But of these 11 players, who is worth the highest bid? An argument can be made for most of them. And after that, who’s next at each position? There is a huge drop-off after each of these players.

The pass-happy state of the NFL puts QBs, WRs and TEs at a premium, but the lack of workhorse backs makes the top RBs more valuable than ever. That conundrum will be looming over every bid on draft day, and will create a bigger gap than ever in our league. Last year 35% of teams were within a game of .500. Two years ago it was 50%. This year I think we’ll see half the teams close to 10 wins and half close to 10 losses, depending on the approach taken during the draft. And as I mentioned earlier, I will be one of those 10-win teams.

I’ll see most of you in Nashville in a month. For the rest of you, get your priorities straight.

FALAFEL 2012 Posts

Coming in July...

Stevens Bowl Preview

What started in Vegas will finish on Christmas weekend. It's been four long months but we're finally here...

Shah! Lutz! It's The Steven's Bowl!

That really never gets old.

This week will be a quick rankings, as I assume most of you aren't at work, or are having parties while you're there. Except Gutman, who is stuck in the backwoods of Tennessee instead of enjoying one of the Crazy Nights.

Bitching About Kicking

My study this year clearly showed that kickers are the least predictable of any of the roster positions, outside of Defense. Defense has a wider range of scoring, so that makes sense. Kickers are just worthless. I won't be at Winter Meetings, but I seriously want to eliminate them next year. They add nothing to the enjoyment of fantasy football and waste $1 of our draft budget.

Consolation Prizes

Esco: I think that nice wad of cash that Barnard is sending you is enough. A championship would have been nice, but ask Zacherman how money can make up for the lack of the Stevens Bowl trophy.

AGD: After another respectable finish, I'm starting to come around on the whole multiple owners thing. So what do you get for the gay couple that has everything? Some "Made for Each Other" gay pillowcases! No need to tell the league which one of you is which puzzle piece.

And now for the main event...

Shah! Lutz! It's The Steven's Bowl!

The Stevens Bowl: Ajay vs. Billy

Quick Summary: I've been over Ajay's team too many times already. Odd draft strategy, didn't quite pan out, but his work on the waiver wire put him in the best situation possible heading into the playoffs. He's caught some breaks, had some nice matchups, and he very well could win six straight to end the year. As for Billy, I am constantly amazed that his team produces every week. Not just Brees and Foster, but everyone. When Harvin gets shut out, Reggie puts up 27. When Lloyd has an off week, Fasano finds the endzone. He doesn't just find ways to win, he finds ways to destroy his opponent. Right now, these really are the two best teams in our league.

QBs: Romo has had a great year, and he can put up stats with the best of them. But the best of them is Brees, and Brees on MNF spells 25+. Romo might keep up, but then again he might not. Edge: Billy

RBs Arian and Reggie might make the most unlikely dominant backfield out there, but they are as reliably great as Brees is. No matter who Ajay plays of Gore/Helu/Spiller, they'll be extremely lucky to match Billy's duo. This is very similar to the QB situation. Edge: Billy

WRs: Though one of them somehow produces week after week, this is Billy's clear weakness. Unfortunately for Mr. Lutz, it also happens to be Ajay's strength. Big Edge: Ajay

TEs: Jermaine Gresham vs. Anthony Fasano is the equivalent of Bennett playing himself. No one would watch and no one wins. Edge: Even

Defenses: Ajay's Broncos have a nice matchup against the turnover prone Bills, but could surrender some garbage time points. I can't possibly think Billy is leaving the Bears D in against the Pack, but as it stands they are his only defense. Edge: Ajay

Owner Awareness: As I've said again and again, this is where Ajay separates himself from his opponents. If Billy replaces that Bears D then he might have a chance, but there's slim pickings out there. Big Edge: Ajay

Final Verdict: This is as close a matchup as we've had in these playoffs. The question is, can Billy's stars put up enough points to compete with Ajay's depth. With the matchup coming down to Brees vs. Roddy on MNF, I say there's gonna be a party in NOLA, even if Billy's the only one attending. Stevens Bowl Champion: Billy

Final consolation prizes and the Stevens Bowl virtual trophy will be handed out next week. I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, or just a solid weekend.

Semi-Final Preview

When any beloved entity loses one of its signature members unexpectedly at the end of a season, it's a tough moment. When that member is vital to the organization's identity and provides its members and followers with both joy and pain, sometimes simultaneously, it's that much harder. Needless to say, this past weekend we all experienced one of those moments. Of course I am talking about the events that went down during the season finale of Boardwalk Empire. I won't say any more for those who haven't seen it yet or inexplicably don't watch the show.

As for our league, well let's just say that every miracle run must come to an end. Now I'm speaking about both our former commissioner, former league-member I guess, and our mostly-automated defending champion.

Bitching About Kicking

QB - Rodgers 18, Vick 11 - Experts 320, Random 178
Difference per game of 10.14
RB - Rice 18, Helu 12 - Experts 228, Random 130
Difference per game of 7
WR - Calvin 3, Walter 13 - Experts 171, Random 123
Difference per game of 3.43
TE - Gronk 28, Graham 5 - Experts 152, Random 73
Difference per game of 7.18
Kicker - Akers 14, Barth 2 - Experts 115, Random 91
Difference per game of 1.71
Defense - Ravens 10, Lions 27 - Experts 138, Random 145
Difference per game of -0.5

Consolation Prizes

Donaldson

Unfortunately I have no idea how much losing affects you. I am willing to bet that less than 1% of your emails to the listserve have referenced fantasy football, whether you include the F8's or not. What I do know is that you suffered an even bigger loss this week in the form of a video being taken off Youtube. While I cannot rectify that situation, I can offer this gif, which is sure to make you smile.

Joseph

If you had missed the playoffs while having the most points scored, I can see wanting to take a year off. But you made the playoffs. Barnard missed thanks to losing both starting RBs in the same week, Zacherman easily has a case for making the playoffs, and I would likely be in your place if a rash of injuries didn't rape my team all year. So although Monday night was a truly excruciating way to end your season, I think this retirement talk is a bit of an overreaction. Your consolation prize is this movie that Larry David directed that no one ever saw.

Semi-Final Preview

Matchup 1 - Esco vs. Ajay

Quick Summary: This is the matchup of the best drafted team against the best managed team. Esco dominated draft day, no question about that. The depth of his team allowed him to make risky trades at will, knowing he had a solid group to fall back on if it didn't work out. Ajay on the other hand drafted a group of under-performing receivers, non-performing backs, and two legitimate starting QBs. He flipped Stafford for Gore, then worked the waiver wire so well that he now has some extremely tough roster decisions to make.

QBs: With Big Ben either out or severely banged up, Esco is forced to start Michael Vick. Yes, forced to start the man Matthew Berry wrote 2,000 words about as the #1 overall pick, and Gutman decided to spend nearly a quarter of his budget on during the draft. Vick faces a Jets D that has been surprisingly vulnerable this year, last week notwithstanding. While he could put up good numbers, Romo gets to feast on a Bucs D that is probably the worst in the league. Edge: Ajay

RBs: Ajay has some decent matchups here, and his backs are pretty much the only options on their respective teams, but he can't compete with Esco's stable of Rice, Bush and Hillis. And for those of you asking yourselves "Wait, didn't you trade him Hillis?," my response is that he would have had Benson who gets to run train on the Rams pathetic excuse for a run defense. Edge: Esco

WRs: This is obviously where Ajay's team shines, but the decision between Austin and Robinson could be the difference between winning and losing. Good luck. Esco if I were you I would want Ben to sit. If he plays, they'll likely attempt to run on San Fran, but if he sits I can easily see Chuck Batch throwing bombs to Wallace and Brown all day. Edge: Ajay

TEs: If Gresham scores, he's startable. If not, you're getting three points. Jimmy Graham is probably Esco's best receiver. Big Edge: Esco

Defense: Ajay is starting a shitty defense against a shitty offense. Esco is starting a great defense against a great offense. Basically a coin flip, but I think Patrick Peterson is due again. Slight Edge: Ajay

Owner Awareness: These are the two owners who have been the most aware all season long. Ajay has managed his team better during the season, but to give him the edge would be an insult to Esco's draft and his lack of needing to manage the team. Edge: Even

Final Verdict: Based on regular season scoring, this should be no contest. But Ajay is peaking at the right time, and Esco had a rough week last week. With Roddy and the Cowboys playing before Sunday, Ajay will likely be up 40+ before Esco even takes the field. But the Wallace/kicker combo on MNF should be enough to have Esco prevail by a slim margin. Winner: Esco

Matchup 2: Billy vs. AGD

Quick Summary: AGD was one of my sleepers during the season, their consistent production was never spectacular but it got the job done. You could always count on them to break 80, but they would rarely break 100. Unless of course they were facing Nick in a win-or-go-home situation. As for Mr. Lutz, he has the benefit of being the newcomer to the league. Two years ago Alan won in his first year, last year Donnie and Yahoo won in their first year. So there is certainly precedent. Does lightening strike thrice?

QBs: Going into the season Brees vs. Eli would have been a no-brainer. And this season Brees has been his usual, dominant self, even cutting back on interceptions. But Eli's play has been truly amazing. He has single handedly won the G-Men a few games, and more surprisingly, hasn't lost them any. Part of this is due to the sudden collapse of their running game, but Eli's play has definitely hit a new level. Even so, he's no Brees. Edge: Billy

RBs: I can't believe this is the case, but Foster/Bush looks poised to put up more than MoJo/Turner/Tolbert. The matchups and current play of the backs make this pretty clear cut actually. MoJo is the wild card here. If he puts up 20+ again, then AGD has a chance, but I can't imagine the Falcons not putting 10 in the box tonight. I can easily see Arian putting up 30 on Carolina, even if they put 10 and Cam in the box. Slight Edge: Billy

WRs: The receivers in this matchup are a pretty pathetic group overall, especially for a Semi-Final matchup. Honestly, I don't think it's even worth discussing. Edge: Even

TEs: This is pretty much the same situation as the receivers, but I think Keller has the much higher ceiling. Edge: AGD

Defense: Bears D has a better matchup, but if they continue to be incapable of moving the ball on offense, Seattle will score some points. The thought of Alex Smith against the Steelers is too appetizing to pass up. Edge: AGD

Owner Awareness: Neither of you made too many moves during the season, which is just not fun. I'll give this one to AGD thanks to their blackmailing trade strategy. Whether it was successful or not, it made the league more entertaining. Edge: AGD

Final Verdict: Looking above, Billy has the edge in QB and RB, which makes sense due to his Brees/Foster dream team. Any advantages AGD has won't be able to compete with that. At least you guys knocked Nick into retirement, like that Bills backer did to Favre last year. Winner: Billy

See you next week for the Stevens Bowl Preview!

Quarterfinal Preview

Honestly, I've been in a funk all week since that Sunday night debacle. I owe Kevin Smith one of my wins, but his inability to stay on the field kept me out of the playoffs. That and Jason Hanson's inability to make field goals. Kickers and injuries, who would have thought?

We'll get to the Final 2011 CPP Rankings, complete with consolation prizes, and the Quarterfinal Preview, but first...

Bitching About Kicking

I could go on a long rant about Jason Hanson, complete with MmmBop references, but I'll just stick to the normal stuff.

QB - Rodgers 32, Josh Johnson 16 - Experts 302, Random 167
Difference per game of 10.38
RB - Rice 30, Spiller 15 - Experts 210, Random 118
Difference per game of 7.08
WR - Calvin 6, Tampa Mike 9 - Experts 168, Random 110
Difference per game of 5.27
TE - Gronk 24, Witten 4 - Experts 124, Random 68
Difference per game of 5.09
K - Kasay 7, Akers 14 - Experts 101, Random 89
Difference per game of 1.09
Defense - 49ers 18, Eagles 3
Difference per game of 0.91

Final 2011 CPP Rankings
1. Esco - CPP: 313.48 - Last Week: 1st
2. Joseph - CPP: 299.51 - Last Week: 2nd
3. Billy - CPP: 284.80 - Last Week: 3rd
4. Zacherman - CPP: 269.37 - Last Week: 4th
5. AGD - CPP: 261.50 - Last Week: 7th
6. Kumpf - CPP: 257.78 - Last Week: 5th
7. Barnard - CPP: 242.81 - Last Week: 6th
8. Kimmel - CPP: 222.35 - Last Week: 8th
9. Weissbard - CPP: 216.06 - Last Week: 10th
10. Ajay - CPP: 214.31 - Last Week: 9th
11. Autodraft - CPP: 196.79 - Last Week: 11th
12. Alan - CPP: 182.34 - Last Week: 12th
13. Gutman - CPP: 176.14 - Last Week: 14th

And the James Barnard Memorial Last Place CPP Award goes to...

14. Bennett - CPP: 173.09 - Last Week: 13th

In the model of Barnard and Long, Bennett you are a true embarrassment to yourself, your family, and this league.

Consolation Prizes

Barnard

Your consolation are these plastic bed sheets. Barnard is coming down to Austin this weekend, and while he will be sleeping on an air mattress, I still prefer he does not soil it. Anyone else that has been eliminated is also welcome. Even you Bennett.

Kumpf

While I've all but given up hope on my "Eliminate Kickers" campaign, I think I can fix my other problem: injuries. I don't need an MRI, I need something better. I need The Rehabilitator. Kimmel's injuries may have been more high-profile, and Zacherman's starters may have missed more time, but mine were the most widespread. My day one starting lineup was Schaub, McCoy, Best, Jennings, Manningham, Moss and Clark. Only McCoy and Jennings missed less than 4 games. This is me justifying why I'm the only person to be in the league all three years who has not made the playoffs.

Zacherman

Your consolation prize is a Killer Cam jersey. I'll admit you were right about him. Unfortunately a combination of bad injury luck, and bad matchup luck kept you out of the playoffs. I almost feel bad for you. But then again you made a lot of money last year by losing in the championship.

Weissbard

You had the most inconsistent season of anyone this year or any year. As I've said before, the gap between your highest and lowest scores was 94 points. In honor of that, your prize is one of the signature games of 1994, Earthworm Jim.


Quarterfinal Preview

With Esco and Billy on byes, we have two matchups to discuss this week.

Matchup 1: Ajay vs. Donnie

Quick Summary: These two teams only scored in the top 7 of a given week 10 times (5 each), which means combined they have the same number of "deserved" wins as Esco, Joseph and Billy (and less than non-playoff teams Kumpf, Zacherman, Barnard and Kimmel). But they are in the playoffs nonetheless. And one of them will move on to lose to Esco in the Semi-Finals, but still get a shot at third place.

QBs: Romo hasn't necessarily been consistent, and he will be chased around by the G-Men pass rush all night, but he is a legit fantasy starter. Josh Freeman is probably a borderline starter when he's healthy, but he is not. If he plays he gets a nice matchup, but if he doesn't you're forced to start Kolb, who wasn't even good enough to stay on Bennett's team. Big Edge: Ajay

RBs: We all know how pitiful Donnie's RB situation is (that's what happens when you autodraft), but Ajay doesn't get enough credit for blocking a few of Donnie's presumed waiver claims. Spiller, Gerheart, Ogbonnaya and Hardesty would all have been upgrades for Donnie, but Ajay has hoarded them. Whether he starts the correct ones or not is irrelevant, as Gore and Helu should blow Tate and Grant out of the water. Big Edge: Ajay

WRs: After the draft I thought Ajay had the best group of receivers in the league by far. As it turned out, that honor belonged to the Yahoo autodraft, who picked up Calvin, Welker, Smith 1.0, and AJ Green. And despite trading Smith and consistently benching Green for Tony Gonzalez, that edge remains over Ajay's solid, yet under-producing receivers. Edge: Donnie

TEs: This has been Donnie's hallmark all year for some reason. Both Finley and Gonzo are better than Gresham, and while only one of them should be starting, even if they both do it somehow gets Donnie wins. Big Edge: Donnie

D/ST: The Broncos D has come on like no other unit over the course of the season. And instead of having to deal with Cutler and Forte this week, they get Hanie and Barber. Meanwhile, the Giants D has combined to -1 over the past 2 weeks. Edge: Ajay

Owner Awareness: This one isn't close. Some of it Donnie couldn't control; his draft technical difficulties, his waiver position, etc. But Ajay has mastered our flawed waiver wire like no one else, and that is why he's in the playoffs and other, better teams are not. Big Edge: Ajay

Final Verdict: Based on everything you read above, it would seem Ajay will run away with it. But he has some tough roster choices to make, and against Donnie teams tend to make the wrong ones. Combine that with the inevitable 20+ point performances by Calvin and Welker, and this one will be close. But I'll never pick a team that Yahoo drafted. Winner: Ajay


Matchup 2: AGD vs. Joseph

Quick Summary: Thanks to AGD not following my advice, they draw the Joseph juggernaut in the first round instead of feasting on Ajay or Donnie. I realize you need to make the playoffs to have a chance, but seeing how Joseph's team is playing, I have as good a chance at winning the Stevens Bowl as you do.

QBs: Hey Rodgers! Discount Double-Check! Big Edge: Joseph

RBs: Over the course of the year, MJD, Turner and Tolbert were a more consistent group than CJ, Green and Law Firm. But right now? Nick's group picked the right time to peak. I still say it's close, but Joseph's crew could put up 50 easily (or completely no-show). Slight Edge: Joseph

WRs: I'm not a fan of either of your WR duos. Jordy has been sick this year, but he's not the most reliable performer week to week. The same can be said of Boldin, and his team just rides Ray Rice. AGD could use a healthy Maclin this week, but even if he does play he likely is a risky start. If I had to choose one I guess it's Nick. Slight Edge: Joseph

TEs: Gronkowski is by far the best receiver in this matchup.By far. Big Edge: Joseph

D/ST: As I write this, it's looking like the Steelers will put up about 10, which is solid. Seattle's D is surprisingly good and gets a sweet matchup, but by MNF it won't matter anyway. Edge: AGD

Final Verdict: All year I've said AGD was a playoff team, and I was right. But this is where the road ends for them. Winner: Joseph