We're now three weeks into the season and both the NFL and FALAFEL have three undefeated teams remaining. There is a team that was aggressively going all-in this season, without regard for long term team construction methods (Rams/Marco), a team led by Pat Mahomes and an impressive assortment of skill players (Chiefs/Zacherman), and a long time sadsack franchise who hasn't had any real success in decades but somehow hasn't lost yet (Dolphins/Weissbard). These teams are all pretty likely to move to 4-0 this week, as they take on three of the bottom 6 teams in the league.
Trade Grade 1
Kumpf receives Ezekiel Elliott, Andy Dalton, and Rishard Matthews
Marco receives Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, and Marvin Jones
I'm a week late on this one, and I'm partially grading myself, so I'll be brief. Marco gave up a stud flex option for a clear upgrade at QB and WR. This was inevitable since he blew his load on those RBs in the draft, but his weekly lineup is a hell of a lot more balanced now, Kirk's weird bed shitting last week aside. From my perspective, I upgraded by RB1, while giving up my backup QB and a WR2/Flex. It raises the ceiling of my team with only a slight hit to my depth. This is a win-win, but I'm giving myself the slightest of edges just because it's apparently possible that Kirk is terrible.
Kumpf Grade: A-
Marco Grade: B+
Trade Grade 2
Alan receives Alfred Morris
Weissbard recieves Sammy Watkins
Yawn. Last week was likely Alf's best game of the season. Breida went down, and Jimmy played most of the game, neither of which is likely to happen moving forward. I guess he's an upgrade at RB2 from Tarik Cohen? But really neither of them are startable on real teams. Also, Alan how do you continually fuck up the formatting of your team name? For the surprisingly 3-0 Weissbard, this is just a swap of flex options. Sammy's ceiling is clearly higher, but given the format of this league, swapping a WR for a RB is usually a downgrade. You were always fucked if Gurley or Quon got hurt, but at least Alf provided some sort of insurance policy. I like this more for Alan simply because RB>WR, but that's not saying much.
Alan Grade: C+
Weissbard Grade: D+
Playoff Odds
After Week 3:
100% (5/5) of 3-0 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams make the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams make the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams make the playoffs
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams make the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams make the playoffs
As mentioned above, our three undefeated teams could be primed to double the 4-0 teams we've had since 2012, which is pretty incredible. On the flip side, things aren't looking great for the dregs of the league, as only 2 teams have ever made the playoffs with 0 or 1 win through four weeks. Of the 1-2 and 0-3 teams, Levine is the clear favorite to emerge given his point total, the division breakdown, and recent history, while the Ajay/BAM/Reap trio are in a lot of trouble already.
Team of the Week - Weissbard
Bennett's high score was built almost entirely on Matty Ice, and he didn't even need those points to beat Reap, so Weiss gets the trophy here. Other than a misstep on his TE dart throw, his lineup was nearly perfect, and he needed every one of those points to take down Levine. His Deshaun/Gurley/Barkley trio looks to be good for 60+ each week, so if his receivers can hold their own, he'll be competitive no matter what. That in and of itself is a huge upgrade for Fireball Dan, but the prospect of 4-0 is a real possibility against the desperate and discouraged Reap.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Leonard Fournette over TJ Yeldon
Lots of close games this week, but no really strategic choices actually swung matchups. So when all else fails, give it to spite. Yes, Barnard only started an injured Fournette because he was fighting a wicked appletini hangover. But given that this is likely his only win of the season, and over Ajay of all people, getting the W while starting an injured player only makes it more sweet. I would imagine that Ajay will be angry about this for years to come.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Fitztragic over Drew Brees
Yes, Gutman still beat me by 0.4. But it took until literally the last play of MNF, and with Brees he would have been able to breath easy by 4pm on Sunday. Levine, Ajay and myself all made less than ideal decisions that would have turned an L into a W, but all of them were defensible. Benching Brees indoors is unforgiveable.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Kumpf vs. Bennett
I hate putting myself in this section, but not only is this the only matchup between above .500 teams, but the winner will take the lead in our still unnamed division. It's also a matchup with a lot of drama. Matty Ice and Dalton facing each other, Agholor/Ertz vs. Ajayi, Buck Allen poaching TDs from Collins, and a lack of Cam/Funchess due to bye. The matchup may be dictated by TNF, because if Diggs and Kupp show up, it will be hard for Bennett to catch up, and then I have Kelce and Sanders for last licks. But if tonight hits the under, Bennett may be a surprising division leader through four weeks. These picks have been terrible for me so far, but I'm going to assume that means I'm due. I done #Kursed myself.
Pick: Kumpf
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/17
NFL Bets
Bengals (+5) at Falcons - Win
Cowboys (-3) vs. Lions - Loss
Bucs (+3) at Bears - Loss
Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals - Push
Saints (-3) at Giants - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2018 Record: 11-7-2 (+2.15 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
For my NFL prop bets, Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards is looking grrrrreat.
NCAA Football Bets
NC State (-5) vs. Virginia - Win
Texas (-9) at Kansas State - Loss
Louisville (+7) vs. Florida State - Win
Washington State (+2) vs. Utah - Win
Duke (-5) vs. Virginia Tech - Loss
Penn State (+4) vs. Ohio State - Win
Last Week: 2-5
2018 Record: 17-18-1 (-3.56 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Loss
Last Week: 1-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 6-9-4 (-5.02 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-6 (-2.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 4-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-1-1 (+2.07 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/26
Astros (+110) at Blue Jays - Loss
A's (-101) at Mariners - Win
9/27
Rays (+140) vs. Yankees - Loss
Last Week: 3-0
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Thursday, September 27, 2018
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Week 2 Recap
Week 1 was the week of the skill players, but the QBs came back with a vengeance in Week 2. Pat Mahomes threw 6 TDs, FitzMagic is doing crazy shit and wasn't even owned in our league (despite Alan owning 3 unstartable QBs), and the entire league averaged a higher passer rating than Aaron Rodgers' career rating. This league does appear to have a pretty clear upper and lower class, but after two weeks, it's more likely that no one knows anything. I do feel like we're over due for a trade however, so hopefully we get some action soon.
Playoff Odds
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams make the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams make the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams make the playoffs
After Week 3:
100% (5/5) of 3-0 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams make the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams make the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams make the playoffs
It's crazy that just three weeks in, we already have a 100% historical playoff lock, but that's how it's gone in the past. Marco, Weissbard, Z and myself will all feel pretty good about ourselves if we win this week. But even one loss is a night and day change, and the leaders can fall back to the pack very quickly.
Team of the Week - Zacherman
I know what you're all saying. "But Kumpf, your team came within a garbage time Seahawks TD from setting the all time scoring record!" I know, it was pretty impressive. "But Kumpf, you gave this to Zacherman last week, and this league HATES praising Zacherman!" I know, it's really unfortunate. "But Kumpf, both Alan and Barnard broke 80!" I know, but this section is not about charity. This is about greatness, and Zacherman's lineup not only would have beaten every team other than mine, but his fucking bench would have beaten half the teams in this league as well. That's dominance.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Chris Hogan over all of his other flex options
Gutman's team is unquestionably deep, but one of the issues with a deep team is the lineup decisions. After Hogan shat the bed Week 1, it would have been easy to look at Jalen Ramsey waiting last week and decide to roll with Kerryon Johnson, Marlon Mack, Allen Hurns, or Theo Riddick. Gut kept the faith, and it rewarded him.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Pretty much everything Ajay did
Ajay's team is slightly less deep, and a huge issue with a marginally deep team is that the lineup decisions really suck. Ajay could have started Rivers over Luck, Marshawn over Barber, or John Brown over Corey Davis, and any of those moves would have turned the L into a W. Instead, he's 0-2 and playing in a very depressing Matchup of the Week.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Ajay vs. Barnard
It's a true loser leaves town match. To be fair, the playoff odds are basically identical at 0-2 and 0-3, but to be taken seriously, you gotta win one of your first three games. No one expected much out of Barnard's team, and he has responded by scoring 7 points more over two weeks than my team did in Week 2 alone. Ajay's luck hasn't been great so far, but he's been below average no matter how you slice it. If Fournette is healthy and LeVeon is still out, these starting rosters look pretty close on paper. Ajay's depth is unquestionably superior, but Barnard having a clear edge at multiple positions is pretty shocking. Having said that, Baby Hands is still chosing between multiple third string RBs or WRs for his flex, which is so, so bad. This pick has been a #Kurse so far this year, but betting against Barnard is a good way to turn things around.
Pick: Ajay
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-2
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/17
NFL Bets
Ravens (-5) vs. Broncos - Win
Redskins (+3) vs. Packers - Win
Eagles (-7) vs. Colts - Loss
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders - Win
Cardinals (+6) vs. Bears - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 9-5-1 (+2.44 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Washington State (+4) at USC - Win
Minnesota (+3) at Maryland - Loss
Boston College (-7) at Purdue - Loss
Oregon State (+6) vs. Arizona - Loss
Vanderbilt (+3) vs. South Carolina - Loss
Texas (+4) vs. TCU - Win
Oklahoma State (-13) vs. Texas Tech - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2018 Record: 13-16-1 (-4.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Watford - Push
Burnley (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Win
Cardiff (+2) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 1-3
2018-19 Spread Record: 6-8-4 (-4.02 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Manchester United (-170) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-6 (-2.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Liverpool (Pick) vs. PSG - Win
Schalke 04 (Pick) vs. Porto - Push
Red Star (+1) vs. Napoli - Win
Valencia (+0.5) vs. Juventus - Loss
Manchester United (-0.5) at Young Boys - Win
Bayern Munich (-1) at Benfica - Win
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-1-1 (+2.07 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
CSKA Moscow (+230) at Viktoria Plzen - Loss
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/20
Red Sox (+145) at Yankees - Win
9/22
Blue Jays (+130) vs. Rays - Win
Pirates (+110) vs. Brewers - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2018 Record: 31-43 (-4.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Playoff Odds
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams make the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams make the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams make the playoffs
After Week 3:
100% (5/5) of 3-0 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams make the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams make the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams make the playoffs
It's crazy that just three weeks in, we already have a 100% historical playoff lock, but that's how it's gone in the past. Marco, Weissbard, Z and myself will all feel pretty good about ourselves if we win this week. But even one loss is a night and day change, and the leaders can fall back to the pack very quickly.
Team of the Week - Zacherman
I know what you're all saying. "But Kumpf, your team came within a garbage time Seahawks TD from setting the all time scoring record!" I know, it was pretty impressive. "But Kumpf, you gave this to Zacherman last week, and this league HATES praising Zacherman!" I know, it's really unfortunate. "But Kumpf, both Alan and Barnard broke 80!" I know, but this section is not about charity. This is about greatness, and Zacherman's lineup not only would have beaten every team other than mine, but his fucking bench would have beaten half the teams in this league as well. That's dominance.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Chris Hogan over all of his other flex options
Gutman's team is unquestionably deep, but one of the issues with a deep team is the lineup decisions. After Hogan shat the bed Week 1, it would have been easy to look at Jalen Ramsey waiting last week and decide to roll with Kerryon Johnson, Marlon Mack, Allen Hurns, or Theo Riddick. Gut kept the faith, and it rewarded him.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Pretty much everything Ajay did
Ajay's team is slightly less deep, and a huge issue with a marginally deep team is that the lineup decisions really suck. Ajay could have started Rivers over Luck, Marshawn over Barber, or John Brown over Corey Davis, and any of those moves would have turned the L into a W. Instead, he's 0-2 and playing in a very depressing Matchup of the Week.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Ajay vs. Barnard
It's a true loser leaves town match. To be fair, the playoff odds are basically identical at 0-2 and 0-3, but to be taken seriously, you gotta win one of your first three games. No one expected much out of Barnard's team, and he has responded by scoring 7 points more over two weeks than my team did in Week 2 alone. Ajay's luck hasn't been great so far, but he's been below average no matter how you slice it. If Fournette is healthy and LeVeon is still out, these starting rosters look pretty close on paper. Ajay's depth is unquestionably superior, but Barnard having a clear edge at multiple positions is pretty shocking. Having said that, Baby Hands is still chosing between multiple third string RBs or WRs for his flex, which is so, so bad. This pick has been a #Kurse so far this year, but betting against Barnard is a good way to turn things around.
Pick: Ajay
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-2
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/17
NFL Bets
Ravens (-5) vs. Broncos - Win
Redskins (+3) vs. Packers - Win
Eagles (-7) vs. Colts - Loss
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders - Win
Cardinals (+6) vs. Bears - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 9-5-1 (+2.44 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Washington State (+4) at USC - Win
Minnesota (+3) at Maryland - Loss
Boston College (-7) at Purdue - Loss
Oregon State (+6) vs. Arizona - Loss
Vanderbilt (+3) vs. South Carolina - Loss
Texas (+4) vs. TCU - Win
Oklahoma State (-13) vs. Texas Tech - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2018 Record: 13-16-1 (-4.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Watford - Push
Burnley (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Win
Cardiff (+2) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 1-3
2018-19 Spread Record: 6-8-4 (-4.02 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Manchester United (-170) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-6 (-2.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Liverpool (Pick) vs. PSG - Win
Schalke 04 (Pick) vs. Porto - Push
Red Star (+1) vs. Napoli - Win
Valencia (+0.5) vs. Juventus - Loss
Manchester United (-0.5) at Young Boys - Win
Bayern Munich (-1) at Benfica - Win
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-1-1 (+2.07 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
CSKA Moscow (+230) at Viktoria Plzen - Loss
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/20
Red Sox (+145) at Yankees - Win
9/22
Blue Jays (+130) vs. Rays - Win
Pirates (+110) vs. Brewers - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2018 Record: 31-43 (-4.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Thursday, September 13, 2018
Week 1 Recap
Well that was a doozy of a Week 1. We had twenty non-QBs break 20 points (including James Conner dropping 30 on me as predicted), half the league broke 100, and my Matchup of the Week ended up as a thriller. Even with all those huge performances, I don't know that anything in our league was too surprising. Marco had an absurd week, but his roster setup puts performances like that on the table if everything breaks right. The three lowest scores were Barnard, Bennett and Alan, who had the three lowest draft grades. Everyone else was at least respectable, and that should make for a typically competitive FALAFEL season.
On to the usual recap format.
Playoff Odds
After Week 1:
50% of 1-0 teams make the playoffs
39% of 0-1 teams make the playoffs
After Week 2:
54% of 2-0 teams make the playoffs
50% of 1-1 teams make the playoffs
15% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs
It's obviously early, so these numbers are a long way from being relevant. However it is interesting that 1-0 teams and 1-1 teams have the same playoff odds. The only takeaway so far is that being 0-2 is a bad thing. Shocker, I know.
Team of the Week - Zacherman
Yes, Marco put up the most points. But I'm also not sure if it's sustainable given how much he relies on his RBs. In my mind, Z put up a more impressive performance. He took down Gut in the the Matchup of the Week, and did so without getting anything from an injured Doug Baldwin, a predictably boom/bust Jimmy Graham, and an extremely questionable start for Jeremy Hill. Mahomes and Hill looks like a truly terrifying connection, his RB stable should be solid enough, and that's without even considering how Nuk Hopkins can blow up. The Matchup of the Week may have been a preview of the Stevens Bowl.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Pat Mahomes over Big Ben
There's nothing I hate more than a Z-Ball lovefest, but we didn't have too many close matchups. Big Ben has historically struggled on the road, but after Hard Knocks I had zero faith in the Browns, and Mahomes was still a pretty big unknown going against a supposedly formidable Chargers D. I probably would have gone with Ben, and I would have been wrong.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Reap starting Mike Wallace over Tyler Lockett
This one hurt. The logic made sense on paper with Alshon ruled out, but the Foles factor would have scared me away, especially at the flex position. Getting a goose egg was obviously unexpected, but Lockett looked like a safer play in general, and would have won the week for Reap.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - BAM vs. Alan
As mentioned above, 0-2 is a historically tough hole to climb out of, so the pressure is already on for these division rivals. Sources say that BAM came close to acquiring Saquon this week, but the deal fell through at the last minute. Luckily, they picked up Philip Lindsay, giving them at least some upside at RB2, which is a hell of a lot more than Alan can say. If you told me a team was starting Nick Foles, Tarik Cohen and Sterling Shephard, I would assume they were ravaged by both bye weeks and injuries. The McKinnon injury obviously hurt, but this team was a mess even before that. Alan couldn't afford to not get Lindsay, and it will show this week.
Pick: BAM
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-1
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/10
NFL Bets
Panthers (+6) at Falcons - Loss
Lions (+6) at 49ers - Win
Patriots (-1) at Jaguars - Loss
Cowboys (-3) vs. Giants - Win
Seahawks (+4) at Bears - Loss
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018 Record: 5-4-1 (+0.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Oklahoma (-18) at Iowa State - Loss
Georgia Tech (-4) at Pittsburgh - Loss
LSU (+10) at Auburn - Win
Duke (+6) at Baylor - Win
Wisconsin (-21) vs. BYU - Loss
Missouri (-6) at Purdue - Loss
Arizona State (-5) at San Diego State - Loss
Fresno State (-1) at UCLA - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018 Record: 11-11-1 (-1.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Spurs (Pick) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Cardiff (+2) at Chelsea - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 5-8-2 (-4.07 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Huddersfield (+220) vs. Crystal Palace - Loss
Southampton (+120) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-5 (-1.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/12
Reds (+166) vs. Dodgers - Loss
Giants (+124) vs. Braves - Loss
Twins (+190) vs. Yankees - Win
9/13
Cardinals (+160) vs. Dodgers - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2018 Record: 28-43 (-8.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
On to the usual recap format.
Playoff Odds
After Week 1:
50% of 1-0 teams make the playoffs
39% of 0-1 teams make the playoffs
After Week 2:
54% of 2-0 teams make the playoffs
50% of 1-1 teams make the playoffs
15% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs
It's obviously early, so these numbers are a long way from being relevant. However it is interesting that 1-0 teams and 1-1 teams have the same playoff odds. The only takeaway so far is that being 0-2 is a bad thing. Shocker, I know.
Team of the Week - Zacherman
Yes, Marco put up the most points. But I'm also not sure if it's sustainable given how much he relies on his RBs. In my mind, Z put up a more impressive performance. He took down Gut in the the Matchup of the Week, and did so without getting anything from an injured Doug Baldwin, a predictably boom/bust Jimmy Graham, and an extremely questionable start for Jeremy Hill. Mahomes and Hill looks like a truly terrifying connection, his RB stable should be solid enough, and that's without even considering how Nuk Hopkins can blow up. The Matchup of the Week may have been a preview of the Stevens Bowl.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Pat Mahomes over Big Ben
There's nothing I hate more than a Z-Ball lovefest, but we didn't have too many close matchups. Big Ben has historically struggled on the road, but after Hard Knocks I had zero faith in the Browns, and Mahomes was still a pretty big unknown going against a supposedly formidable Chargers D. I probably would have gone with Ben, and I would have been wrong.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Reap starting Mike Wallace over Tyler Lockett
This one hurt. The logic made sense on paper with Alshon ruled out, but the Foles factor would have scared me away, especially at the flex position. Getting a goose egg was obviously unexpected, but Lockett looked like a safer play in general, and would have won the week for Reap.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - BAM vs. Alan
As mentioned above, 0-2 is a historically tough hole to climb out of, so the pressure is already on for these division rivals. Sources say that BAM came close to acquiring Saquon this week, but the deal fell through at the last minute. Luckily, they picked up Philip Lindsay, giving them at least some upside at RB2, which is a hell of a lot more than Alan can say. If you told me a team was starting Nick Foles, Tarik Cohen and Sterling Shephard, I would assume they were ravaged by both bye weeks and injuries. The McKinnon injury obviously hurt, but this team was a mess even before that. Alan couldn't afford to not get Lindsay, and it will show this week.
Pick: BAM
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-1
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/10
NFL Bets
Panthers (+6) at Falcons - Loss
Lions (+6) at 49ers - Win
Patriots (-1) at Jaguars - Loss
Cowboys (-3) vs. Giants - Win
Seahawks (+4) at Bears - Loss
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018 Record: 5-4-1 (+0.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Oklahoma (-18) at Iowa State - Loss
Georgia Tech (-4) at Pittsburgh - Loss
LSU (+10) at Auburn - Win
Duke (+6) at Baylor - Win
Wisconsin (-21) vs. BYU - Loss
Missouri (-6) at Purdue - Loss
Arizona State (-5) at San Diego State - Loss
Fresno State (-1) at UCLA - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018 Record: 11-11-1 (-1.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Spurs (Pick) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Cardiff (+2) at Chelsea - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 5-8-2 (-4.07 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Huddersfield (+220) vs. Crystal Palace - Loss
Southampton (+120) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-5 (-1.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/12
Reds (+166) vs. Dodgers - Loss
Giants (+124) vs. Braves - Loss
Twins (+190) vs. Yankees - Win
9/13
Cardinals (+160) vs. Dodgers - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2018 Record: 28-43 (-8.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Thursday, September 6, 2018
Week 1 Preview
Not a whole lot has happened since the draft, so this will be quick. The two biggest injuries were to Marqise Lee and Jerick McKinnon, and Weissbard somehow has the move of the year with a $0 Alf Morris pickup that he only got after an unclear tiebreak process with Marco. The most influential news since Baltimore is probably the LeVeon Bell holdout, which makes Ajay's $68 value look more and more like Barnard's $60 Fournette bid. I'm obviously happy about this news, but I'm also fully expecting John Conner to drop 30 on me this week.
Biggest Matchup of Week 1 - Gutman vs. Zacherman
I don't have a ton of information to work with, so I'm going with the only divisional matchup this week. It does include two of my favorite drafts, so this should theoretically be a good matchup. To make it more entertaining, all of the current starters are playing Sunday, so it makes the return of football one long, exhausting day for both Gut and Z. I bet on Pitt this week, but Ben on the road is weirdly terrible, and that limits the ceiling for Team Z. He does get last licks with Howard and Graham, but I can see Brees to Thomas linking up for 50+, and that's going to be hard to overcome. My Stevens Bowl pick should start 1-0.
Pick: Gutman
2017 Matchup of the Week Record: 13-6
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/3
NFL Bets
Eagles (+1) vs. Falcons - Win
Patriots (-6) vs. Texans - Win
Steelers (-4) at Browns - Loss
Vikings (-6) vs. 49ers - Win
Seahawks (+3) at Broncos - Push
2018 Record: 3-1-1 (+1.31 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NFL Props
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Packers under 10 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Falcons to win Super Bowl (+1500)
Texans to win Super Bowl (+2000)
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards (+1400)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing yards (+4000)
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving yards (+265)
The Win Total bets have historically hit 55% of the time, so I'd expect to win around 8 of these. Don't super love the Packers or Titans picks, but I feel pretty confident on the rest.
NCAA Football Bets
Duke (+3) at Northwestern - Win
Nevada (+10) at Vanderbilt - Loss
Memphis (-6) at Navy - Loss
Iowa (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Virginia (+6) at Indiana - Win
California (+3) at BYU - Win
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 8-6-1 (+0.86 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-5-2 (-1.84 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-3 (+0.05 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/7
Blue Jays (+190) vs. Indians - Win
Last Week: 0-2
2018 Record: 27-40 (-7.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Biggest Matchup of Week 1 - Gutman vs. Zacherman
I don't have a ton of information to work with, so I'm going with the only divisional matchup this week. It does include two of my favorite drafts, so this should theoretically be a good matchup. To make it more entertaining, all of the current starters are playing Sunday, so it makes the return of football one long, exhausting day for both Gut and Z. I bet on Pitt this week, but Ben on the road is weirdly terrible, and that limits the ceiling for Team Z. He does get last licks with Howard and Graham, but I can see Brees to Thomas linking up for 50+, and that's going to be hard to overcome. My Stevens Bowl pick should start 1-0.
Pick: Gutman
2017 Matchup of the Week Record: 13-6
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/3
NFL Bets
Eagles (+1) vs. Falcons - Win
Patriots (-6) vs. Texans - Win
Steelers (-4) at Browns - Loss
Vikings (-6) vs. 49ers - Win
Seahawks (+3) at Broncos - Push
2018 Record: 3-1-1 (+1.31 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NFL Props
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Packers under 10 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Falcons to win Super Bowl (+1500)
Texans to win Super Bowl (+2000)
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards (+1400)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing yards (+4000)
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving yards (+265)
The Win Total bets have historically hit 55% of the time, so I'd expect to win around 8 of these. Don't super love the Packers or Titans picks, but I feel pretty confident on the rest.
NCAA Football Bets
Duke (+3) at Northwestern - Win
Nevada (+10) at Vanderbilt - Loss
Memphis (-6) at Navy - Loss
Iowa (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Virginia (+6) at Indiana - Win
California (+3) at BYU - Win
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 8-6-1 (+0.86 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-5-2 (-1.84 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-3 (+0.05 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/7
Blue Jays (+190) vs. Indians - Win
Last Week: 0-2
2018 Record: 27-40 (-7.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Baltimore Draft Recap
Hopefully we're all recovered from what was unquestionably the weirdest draft weekend we've ever had. The house alone provided us with a lack of doors and ceilings, a pig getting slaughtered every time the A/C turned on, mandatory wall leaping if we wanted to get inside, and the human train wreck known as Nancy. I honestly enjoyed Baltimore more than I expected to (thanks Gut), but that doesn't change the fact that I'm giving out draft grades using quotes from The Wire.
Continuing the theme of weirdness, the draft itself was completely unpredictable. Due to the continued success of teams like Levine, Esco and Ajay by forgoing studs and looking for deeper squads, there was a shit ton of value for the best players. This caused pretty much everyone to change their strategy on the fly, no one more so than...
Levine
Cutty: Game done changed.
Slim Charles: Game's the same, just got more fierce.
The most shocking thing I saw all weekend was how shook Levine was after Weissbard maliciously dumped a beer on his laptop. Our defending champ is usually the picture of tranquility during the draft, but having to repeatedly change computers led to some uncharacteristic picks from Levine. I really like Julio this year, but him and Davante for $97 left Levine with a lot of question marks at RB. I'm fine with Mixon, but the RB2 options are extremely shaky, and paying more for AP than Belfer paid for Dion Lewis is not likely to pay off. The ceiling here is still high if everything breaks right, but I'm not as high on my rival as I usually am.
Best Pick: Matt Stafford for $4
Worst Pick: Adrian Peterson for $16
Grade: C+
Alan
Bunk: Boy, them Greeks and those twisted-ass names.
McNulty: Man, back off the Greeks. They invented civilization.
Bunk: Yeah? Ass-fucking, too.
I really missed seeing Alan in his chef's hat, but missing a draft during your wedding year has become somewhat of a tradition, even if said wedding is in January. Hopefully Greece was amazing, because this team is not. McCaffrey and McKinnon could both have great years, but I'm not spending $91 to find out. I like the Mariota/Jameis QB combo, but after that I don't see anything reliable on a week-to-week basis. I've been wrong on Alan before, but I don't think this is one of those years.
Best Pick: Jerick McKinnon for $38 (Not my favorite player, but good value)
Worst Pick: Tarik Cohen for $18
Grade: C-
Kumpf
Bunk: That will teach you to give a fuck when it ain't your turn to give a fuck.
For nine years I've tried to not blackout during the draft, and for nine years I've failed. This was the first year I actually succeeded, and it's also the least I've ever like my team leaving the draft. Spending my last $6 on a backup QB when I got disconnected from the internet was bad luck, but even the picks I did make don't get me excited. I do think it's a solid team with a lot of good value, especially at WR, but I will absolutely be blacking out next year.
Best Pick: Chris Thompson for $5
Worst Pick: Cooper Kupp for $6
Grade: B-
Reap
Omar: A man gotta have a code.
The most iconic mantra in The Wire is apparently something Reap has never heard of. As most of us are aware, Reap offered to trade Billy a runningback if he snorted a line of Old Bay seasoning off the table at the crab dinner. Billy immediately agreed, and they even settled on Lamar Miller as said RB. Then Reap got cold feet and changed the bet to stipulate that the line had to be off Marshall's ass. Billy immediately agreed again (Marshall's consent is up for debate), and then Reap backed off completely. Absolutely despicable behavior by Reap. As for his draft, I really like his starters, but depth will be an issue if injuries pop up. And given the bad karma he earned this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if Omar's coming for David Johnson.
Best Pick: David Johnson for $64
Worst Pick: Lamar Miller for $32
Grade: B
Bennett
D'Angelo: Where's Wallace? Where the fuck is Wallace? Huh? Huh? String? String? Look at me! Where the fuck is Wallace? HUH!?
Where was Bennett??? There is a well established forgiveness for missing the draft if you get married that year. There is also a lesser level of forgiveness for school and work conflicts, even if your job is as worthless as being a weatherman. However, this is the first time that someone has just decided to take a fucking vacation and miss the draft. It's been the same weekend in 9 of the last 10 years, schedule your leisure trips accordingly. Also your team is absolute dogshit.
Best Pick: Nelson Agholor for $3
Worst Pick: LeSean McCoy for $44
Grade: D+
Barnard
Clay Davis: SHIIIIIT
Speaking of dogshit. I actually think everyone is being too hard on Barnard. Yes, his team is not good. But he only spent $184 on it, so when you think about it...nah still sucks. Fournette for $60 is a massive overpay even before you consider than that Gurleys and Bells of the world also went in the $60s. Stocking a team with white receivers and heavy RBs is a bold strategy, but it seems like a year after being immune to taking shots before the draft, next year Barnard might not have a choice.
Best Pick: Greg Olsen for $7
Worst Pick: Leonard Fournette for $60
Grade: D-
Weissbard
Omar: Ayo, lesson here, Bey. You come at the king, you best not miss.
Speaking of bold strategies (all about segues today), Weissbard dumping a beer on Levine's computer may have swayed the league this year. I'm not about to suggest that the last place team should dump a beer on the champ's computer every year, but I'm not not saying that. Considering he was several shots deep, drafted half his team from his phone, and has never had any fantasy success in his life, I kind of like Weissbard's team. Two of the top seven RBs, Deshaun, some interesting bargain basement WRs (other than $3 on Decker), I can see a playoff team here. Of course, if either Gurley or Saquan gets hurt, this will take a turn real quick, but I think Fireball Dan should be the new standard on draft day.
Best Pick: Todd Gurley for $69
Worst Pick: Eric Decker for $3
Grade: B
Lowe and Mueller
Freamon: I don't wanna go to no dance unless I can rub some tit.
Thanks as always to the non-league members for adding to our numbers. Glad you guys got to rub some tit.
Zacherman
Bubbles: How y'all do what y'all do every day and not wanna get high?
Giving Bubbles to Zacherman was the most obvious choice of this process, and Z did not disappoint this year either. We even got some inexplicable videos of frogs. Never change Z. His draft was one of the two where I kept being jealous every time he got a player. He didn't get any amazing values, but I also see no real overpays either. That usually bodes well for the team in question, and I think a squad this deep is going to compete every week.
Best Pick: Carlos Hyde for $10
Worst Pick: Corey Clement for $6
Grade: B
Donny
Proposition Joe: Fool, if it wasn’t for Sergei here, you and your cuz both would be cadaverous motherfuckers.
Hey cuz.
BAM
McNulty: You know why I respect you so much, Bunk?
Bunk: Mm-mmm.
McNulty: It's not 'cause you're good police, 'cause, y'know, fuck that, right?
Bunk: Mm. Fuck that, yeah.
McNulty: It's not 'cause when I came to homicide, you taught me all kinds of cool shit about . . . well, whatever.
Bunk: Mm. Whatever.
McNulty: It's 'cause when it came time for you to fuck me . . . you were very gentle.
Bunk: You damn right.
McNulty: See, 'cause you could have hauled me out of the garage and just bent me over the hood of a radio car, and . . . no, you were, you were very gentle.
Bunk: I knew it was your first time. I wanted to make that shit special.
McNulty: It was, man. It fucking was.
I obviously had to pair my two favorite interracial duos, and after taking the Christmas Card picture, I found this quote extremely appropriate (note: they didn't actually fuck). As usual, this team went big on a few studs, but in a twist, they didn't include any RBs. I have no idea what their plan is at that position (though they are owed Lamar Miller), but they are pretty stacked everywhere else. On a side note, Billy and Marshall are short list for draft weekend MVPs. I don't think their collective BAC dropped below .3 from the moment they set foot in Charm City.
Best Pick: Russell Wilson for $13
Worst Pick: Jamaal Williams for $10
Grade: B-
Gutman
Freamon: We're building something, here, detective, we're building it from scratch. All the pieces matter.
This is the other team that I was consistently jealous of, and all the pieces do indeed matter. Gutman put together a squad that is above average at every position, has a mix of upside and high-floor players, and even includes an always fun QB to WR connection. It's going to be very interesting to see if Gutman can manage to not fuck this up, especially when he'll be a father by Week 5. Given his team name, he's not off to a good start.
Best Pick: Michael Crabtree for $9
Worst Pick: Michael Thomas for $49
Grade: A
Marco
Bunk: All night you been drinkin' like your ass is candy. I want to how how do you do it.
This quote should be self-explanatory. Marco is also in the running for draft weekend MVP, and his team doesn't hurt his cause at all. He drafted a total of three players that cost more than $3. That's absolutely batshit crazy and I can't wait to see how it turns out. I'm going to assume not well, but he's got a lot of upside receivers, so I'm honestly most concerned about QB and TE. Godspeed sir.
Best Pick: Chris Godwin for $1
Worst Pick: Melvin Gordon for $57
Grade: C
Ajay
McNulty: I gotta ask ya: if every time Snot Boogie would grab the money and run away, why'd you even let him in the game?
Man On Stoop: What?
McNulty: If Snot Boogie always stole the money, why'd you let him play?
Man On Stoop: Got to. This America, man.
I don't know why but this made me think of Ajay. Probably because the Man On Stoop says such a nonsensical statement with absolute confidence and conviction. Ajay obviously didn't intend on drafting LeVeon, and I feel like he was as confused as I was for the rest of the draft. The values he got weren't bad by any means, but I don't really love any of the players. Bell can win games on his own, and I feel like Ajay is going to need him to a few times this year.
Best Pick: LeVeon Bell for $68
Worst Pick: Jordan Wilkins for $8
Grade: B-
Belfer
Slim Charles: Yeah, now, well, the thing about the old days: they the old days.
For the first 8 years of this league, Belfer and Reap were a well respected duo who had considerable success. Over that time I don't think I was alone in assuming that Belfer was the primary owner, likely because he was (way) more outspoken on the listserve. In their first year apart, neither team did well, but after another draft, I'm now thinking that Reap may have been the brains of the operation. I don't hate this team, I just feel like it's below average at most spots outside of Brown and maybe Evans. I don't think that spells a playoff birth.
Best Pick: Sony Michel for $5
Worst Pick: Mike Williams for $7
Grade: C
Esco
Marlo: You want it to be one way.
Security Guard: Man, STOP! Stop, sayin' that.
Marlo: But it's the other way.
This quote could apply to the whole draft, but I'm giving it to Esco because he was basically the Security Guard here when he won Aaron Rodgers. He bounced back better than Ajay, Levine and I did, and he still managed to get both high-level talent and significant depth. I like Gutman's team slightly more, but that might be because I had such low expectations going in. A repeat Stevens Bowl appearance would not be a shock here.
Best Pick: Aaron Rodgers for $20
Worst Pick: Aaron Jones for $10
Grade: A-
Overall Grades:
Gutman: A
Esco: A-
Reap: B
Weissbard: B
Zacherman: B
Ajay: B-
BAM: B-
Kumpf: B-
Levine: C+
Belfer: C
Marco: C
Alan: C-
Bennett: D+
Barnard: D-
Based on the grades, we could have a Gutman vs. Esco Stevens Bowl, but Weissbard is shockingly within reach as well. Levine also drafted an amazing division, as one of us might make the playoffs at 5-8. I'll leave you all with the last line in the series, as well as the way all of us felt Sunday morning.
McNulty: Let's go home.
Gambling Corner - Week of 8/27
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
8/29
Giants (-102) vs. D-Backs - Loss
9/1
White Sox (+150) vs. Red Sox - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018 Record: 26-40 (-9.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Through September, my MLB Win Total bets fell off a bit. I'm 15/29 overall on projections, and 10/17 on my actual bets.
EPL Bets (Spread)
Leicester City (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
West Ham (Pick) vs. Wolves - Loss
Cardiff (+1) vs. Arsenal - Push
Burnley (+1) vs. Manchester United - Loss
Watford (+1) vs. Tottenham - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-5-2 (-1.84 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Huddersfield (+600) at Everton - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-3 (+0.05 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Northwestern (+1) at Purdue - Win
Wake Forest (-6) at Tulane - Push
Western Michigan (+5) vs. Syracuse - Loss
Stanford (-14) vs. San Diego State - Win
Maryland (+14) vs. Texas - Win
Tennessee (+10) vs. West Virginia (Neutral Site) - Loss
Washington (+3) vs. Auburn (Neutral Site) - Loss
Notre Dame (-1) vs. Michigan - Win
Louisville (+25) vs. Alabama (Neutral Site) - Loss
2018 Record: 4-4-1 (-0.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
Continuing the theme of weirdness, the draft itself was completely unpredictable. Due to the continued success of teams like Levine, Esco and Ajay by forgoing studs and looking for deeper squads, there was a shit ton of value for the best players. This caused pretty much everyone to change their strategy on the fly, no one more so than...
Levine
Cutty: Game done changed.
Slim Charles: Game's the same, just got more fierce.
The most shocking thing I saw all weekend was how shook Levine was after Weissbard maliciously dumped a beer on his laptop. Our defending champ is usually the picture of tranquility during the draft, but having to repeatedly change computers led to some uncharacteristic picks from Levine. I really like Julio this year, but him and Davante for $97 left Levine with a lot of question marks at RB. I'm fine with Mixon, but the RB2 options are extremely shaky, and paying more for AP than Belfer paid for Dion Lewis is not likely to pay off. The ceiling here is still high if everything breaks right, but I'm not as high on my rival as I usually am.
Best Pick: Matt Stafford for $4
Worst Pick: Adrian Peterson for $16
Grade: C+
Alan
Bunk: Boy, them Greeks and those twisted-ass names.
McNulty: Man, back off the Greeks. They invented civilization.
Bunk: Yeah? Ass-fucking, too.
I really missed seeing Alan in his chef's hat, but missing a draft during your wedding year has become somewhat of a tradition, even if said wedding is in January. Hopefully Greece was amazing, because this team is not. McCaffrey and McKinnon could both have great years, but I'm not spending $91 to find out. I like the Mariota/Jameis QB combo, but after that I don't see anything reliable on a week-to-week basis. I've been wrong on Alan before, but I don't think this is one of those years.
Best Pick: Jerick McKinnon for $38 (Not my favorite player, but good value)
Worst Pick: Tarik Cohen for $18
Grade: C-
Kumpf
Bunk: That will teach you to give a fuck when it ain't your turn to give a fuck.
For nine years I've tried to not blackout during the draft, and for nine years I've failed. This was the first year I actually succeeded, and it's also the least I've ever like my team leaving the draft. Spending my last $6 on a backup QB when I got disconnected from the internet was bad luck, but even the picks I did make don't get me excited. I do think it's a solid team with a lot of good value, especially at WR, but I will absolutely be blacking out next year.
Best Pick: Chris Thompson for $5
Worst Pick: Cooper Kupp for $6
Grade: B-
Reap
Omar: A man gotta have a code.
The most iconic mantra in The Wire is apparently something Reap has never heard of. As most of us are aware, Reap offered to trade Billy a runningback if he snorted a line of Old Bay seasoning off the table at the crab dinner. Billy immediately agreed, and they even settled on Lamar Miller as said RB. Then Reap got cold feet and changed the bet to stipulate that the line had to be off Marshall's ass. Billy immediately agreed again (Marshall's consent is up for debate), and then Reap backed off completely. Absolutely despicable behavior by Reap. As for his draft, I really like his starters, but depth will be an issue if injuries pop up. And given the bad karma he earned this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if Omar's coming for David Johnson.
Best Pick: David Johnson for $64
Worst Pick: Lamar Miller for $32
Grade: B
Bennett
D'Angelo: Where's Wallace? Where the fuck is Wallace? Huh? Huh? String? String? Look at me! Where the fuck is Wallace? HUH!?
Where was Bennett??? There is a well established forgiveness for missing the draft if you get married that year. There is also a lesser level of forgiveness for school and work conflicts, even if your job is as worthless as being a weatherman. However, this is the first time that someone has just decided to take a fucking vacation and miss the draft. It's been the same weekend in 9 of the last 10 years, schedule your leisure trips accordingly. Also your team is absolute dogshit.
Best Pick: Nelson Agholor for $3
Worst Pick: LeSean McCoy for $44
Grade: D+
Barnard
Clay Davis: SHIIIIIT
Speaking of dogshit. I actually think everyone is being too hard on Barnard. Yes, his team is not good. But he only spent $184 on it, so when you think about it...nah still sucks. Fournette for $60 is a massive overpay even before you consider than that Gurleys and Bells of the world also went in the $60s. Stocking a team with white receivers and heavy RBs is a bold strategy, but it seems like a year after being immune to taking shots before the draft, next year Barnard might not have a choice.
Best Pick: Greg Olsen for $7
Worst Pick: Leonard Fournette for $60
Grade: D-
Weissbard
Omar: Ayo, lesson here, Bey. You come at the king, you best not miss.
Speaking of bold strategies (all about segues today), Weissbard dumping a beer on Levine's computer may have swayed the league this year. I'm not about to suggest that the last place team should dump a beer on the champ's computer every year, but I'm not not saying that. Considering he was several shots deep, drafted half his team from his phone, and has never had any fantasy success in his life, I kind of like Weissbard's team. Two of the top seven RBs, Deshaun, some interesting bargain basement WRs (other than $3 on Decker), I can see a playoff team here. Of course, if either Gurley or Saquan gets hurt, this will take a turn real quick, but I think Fireball Dan should be the new standard on draft day.
Best Pick: Todd Gurley for $69
Worst Pick: Eric Decker for $3
Grade: B
Lowe and Mueller
Freamon: I don't wanna go to no dance unless I can rub some tit.
Thanks as always to the non-league members for adding to our numbers. Glad you guys got to rub some tit.
Zacherman
Bubbles: How y'all do what y'all do every day and not wanna get high?
Giving Bubbles to Zacherman was the most obvious choice of this process, and Z did not disappoint this year either. We even got some inexplicable videos of frogs. Never change Z. His draft was one of the two where I kept being jealous every time he got a player. He didn't get any amazing values, but I also see no real overpays either. That usually bodes well for the team in question, and I think a squad this deep is going to compete every week.
Best Pick: Carlos Hyde for $10
Worst Pick: Corey Clement for $6
Grade: B
Donny
Proposition Joe: Fool, if it wasn’t for Sergei here, you and your cuz both would be cadaverous motherfuckers.
Hey cuz.
BAM
McNulty: You know why I respect you so much, Bunk?
Bunk: Mm-mmm.
McNulty: It's not 'cause you're good police, 'cause, y'know, fuck that, right?
Bunk: Mm. Fuck that, yeah.
McNulty: It's not 'cause when I came to homicide, you taught me all kinds of cool shit about . . . well, whatever.
Bunk: Mm. Whatever.
McNulty: It's 'cause when it came time for you to fuck me . . . you were very gentle.
Bunk: You damn right.
McNulty: See, 'cause you could have hauled me out of the garage and just bent me over the hood of a radio car, and . . . no, you were, you were very gentle.
Bunk: I knew it was your first time. I wanted to make that shit special.
McNulty: It was, man. It fucking was.
I obviously had to pair my two favorite interracial duos, and after taking the Christmas Card picture, I found this quote extremely appropriate (note: they didn't actually fuck). As usual, this team went big on a few studs, but in a twist, they didn't include any RBs. I have no idea what their plan is at that position (though they are owed Lamar Miller), but they are pretty stacked everywhere else. On a side note, Billy and Marshall are short list for draft weekend MVPs. I don't think their collective BAC dropped below .3 from the moment they set foot in Charm City.
Best Pick: Russell Wilson for $13
Worst Pick: Jamaal Williams for $10
Grade: B-
Gutman
Freamon: We're building something, here, detective, we're building it from scratch. All the pieces matter.
This is the other team that I was consistently jealous of, and all the pieces do indeed matter. Gutman put together a squad that is above average at every position, has a mix of upside and high-floor players, and even includes an always fun QB to WR connection. It's going to be very interesting to see if Gutman can manage to not fuck this up, especially when he'll be a father by Week 5. Given his team name, he's not off to a good start.
Best Pick: Michael Crabtree for $9
Worst Pick: Michael Thomas for $49
Grade: A
Marco
Bunk: All night you been drinkin' like your ass is candy. I want to how how do you do it.
This quote should be self-explanatory. Marco is also in the running for draft weekend MVP, and his team doesn't hurt his cause at all. He drafted a total of three players that cost more than $3. That's absolutely batshit crazy and I can't wait to see how it turns out. I'm going to assume not well, but he's got a lot of upside receivers, so I'm honestly most concerned about QB and TE. Godspeed sir.
Best Pick: Chris Godwin for $1
Worst Pick: Melvin Gordon for $57
Grade: C
Ajay
McNulty: I gotta ask ya: if every time Snot Boogie would grab the money and run away, why'd you even let him in the game?
Man On Stoop: What?
McNulty: If Snot Boogie always stole the money, why'd you let him play?
Man On Stoop: Got to. This America, man.
I don't know why but this made me think of Ajay. Probably because the Man On Stoop says such a nonsensical statement with absolute confidence and conviction. Ajay obviously didn't intend on drafting LeVeon, and I feel like he was as confused as I was for the rest of the draft. The values he got weren't bad by any means, but I don't really love any of the players. Bell can win games on his own, and I feel like Ajay is going to need him to a few times this year.
Best Pick: LeVeon Bell for $68
Worst Pick: Jordan Wilkins for $8
Grade: B-
Belfer
Slim Charles: Yeah, now, well, the thing about the old days: they the old days.
For the first 8 years of this league, Belfer and Reap were a well respected duo who had considerable success. Over that time I don't think I was alone in assuming that Belfer was the primary owner, likely because he was (way) more outspoken on the listserve. In their first year apart, neither team did well, but after another draft, I'm now thinking that Reap may have been the brains of the operation. I don't hate this team, I just feel like it's below average at most spots outside of Brown and maybe Evans. I don't think that spells a playoff birth.
Best Pick: Sony Michel for $5
Worst Pick: Mike Williams for $7
Grade: C
Esco
Marlo: You want it to be one way.
Security Guard: Man, STOP! Stop, sayin' that.
Marlo: But it's the other way.
This quote could apply to the whole draft, but I'm giving it to Esco because he was basically the Security Guard here when he won Aaron Rodgers. He bounced back better than Ajay, Levine and I did, and he still managed to get both high-level talent and significant depth. I like Gutman's team slightly more, but that might be because I had such low expectations going in. A repeat Stevens Bowl appearance would not be a shock here.
Best Pick: Aaron Rodgers for $20
Worst Pick: Aaron Jones for $10
Grade: A-
Overall Grades:
Gutman: A
Esco: A-
Reap: B
Weissbard: B
Zacherman: B
Ajay: B-
BAM: B-
Kumpf: B-
Levine: C+
Belfer: C
Marco: C
Alan: C-
Bennett: D+
Barnard: D-
Based on the grades, we could have a Gutman vs. Esco Stevens Bowl, but Weissbard is shockingly within reach as well. Levine also drafted an amazing division, as one of us might make the playoffs at 5-8. I'll leave you all with the last line in the series, as well as the way all of us felt Sunday morning.
McNulty: Let's go home.
Gambling Corner - Week of 8/27
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
8/29
Giants (-102) vs. D-Backs - Loss
9/1
White Sox (+150) vs. Red Sox - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018 Record: 26-40 (-9.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Through September, my MLB Win Total bets fell off a bit. I'm 15/29 overall on projections, and 10/17 on my actual bets.
EPL Bets (Spread)
Leicester City (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
West Ham (Pick) vs. Wolves - Loss
Cardiff (+1) vs. Arsenal - Push
Burnley (+1) vs. Manchester United - Loss
Watford (+1) vs. Tottenham - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-5-2 (-1.84 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Huddersfield (+600) at Everton - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-3 (+0.05 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Northwestern (+1) at Purdue - Win
Wake Forest (-6) at Tulane - Push
Western Michigan (+5) vs. Syracuse - Loss
Stanford (-14) vs. San Diego State - Win
Maryland (+14) vs. Texas - Win
Tennessee (+10) vs. West Virginia (Neutral Site) - Loss
Washington (+3) vs. Auburn (Neutral Site) - Loss
Notre Dame (-1) vs. Michigan - Win
Louisville (+25) vs. Alabama (Neutral Site) - Loss
2018 Record: 4-4-1 (-0.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)