Monday, October 7, 2013

Side Bet Payment

Ajay and I had a Side Bet for our Week 4 matchup. He lost.


It's a self-proclaimed low-effort video, but it's a good start to what I hope will be a series of Side Bet Payments coming soon.

Friday, October 4, 2013

Trade Analysis 2

Nick Gets:
Torrey Smith WR BAL
Matt Schaub QB HOU
Le’Veon Bell RB PIT

Gutman Gets:
Steven Ridley RB NE
Philip Rivers QB SD
Jerome Simpson WR MIN


#HotSportsTake: Wow Ridley is really worth that much?? I understand the flexibility that Philip Rivers allows Gutman but giving up a WR2 in Smith and a starting RB in Bell is an awful lot for one big name…

Reaction in Gif Form

Most Valuable Addition: Even if I am hesitant about his long term potential Ridley is the
unquestioned star of this trade. If he can last a few more games without fumbling then
maaaaybe he will finally take all the carries back from Bolden and Blount. The real questions come in Week 11 when Shane Vereen is projected to come back from his injury. Ridley only has 4 games as unchallenged RB1 before then so if he is unable to seize control of the job then you know that Bill Belichick will have no problem giving the load to Vereen when he gets back.

Potential Starters Gained: This is a huge trade for Nick as his wide receivers have been an abomination since the draft. With Torrey Smith on board he finally has a WR comfortably within the top 25 and most weeks is a top 20 receiver. While Le’Veon Bell is highly unlikely to get two touchdowns every week he still is a starting running back every week in our league and once his bye is over will be in the lineup every week. The fear is an aggravation of his foot injury could sideline him once again later this year. Giving up Rivers hurts this week because Griffin is on bye but from now on you won’t have to deal with a QB dilemma which will make your weekly roster decisions easier.

Gutman is actually quite deep at WR so Torrey doesn’t hurt him as much as I originally assumed. T.Y. Hilton has been a pretty big disappointment this year after being on most people’s sleepers list before the season started but between him, Steve Smith, Anquan and Jerome Simpson you should be able to field at least two capable receivers every week. And Ridley can replace Bell in your lineup next to the Muscle Hamster. Philip Rivers becomes Kaepernick insurance and your QB position now comes down to matchups which can be difficult to successfully predict every week. The real question is why do you have the Cowboys defense on your roster when they are playing premier offenses until week 9 against Minnesota? I think it’s time to drop them and probably Kyle Rudolph for deep sleepers like Kenjon Barner, Keenan Allen, or Terrence Williams so at least you have potential for growth/injury insurance as the season progresses.


Nijo Trade Grade: Originally I loved this trade for you, after looking a little deeper I still like it I just don’t think it was as much of a robbery as I anticipated. You get two every week starters out of the deal and the receiver options you had to deal with before Torrey were really disgusting. Even if Ridley ends up doing significantly better than Bell over the course of the year I don’t see you getting too worked up about it because of your security at wide receiver now. So I’m going to give you this. Overall Trade Grade: A-


Gutman Trade Grade: After looking at your other wide receiver options and your clear need to make a deal at 1-3, I understand why you did what you did. Ridley could be the home run that sneaks you into the playoffs. And I also like the flexibility of having Philip Rivers to play the matchups with Kaepernick so you can stop being so 49er reliant. So my original take was a little strong, I give you credit for making the move when Bell’s value was high.
Overall Trade Grade: B (could be an A if Ridley returns to RB1 status)

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Week 4 CPP Rankings

After getting the highest points prize in Week 3, and then improving on that score, I thought I'd at least be in the running for highest points in Week 4. But a couple of elderly men had other plans, and led Weissbard to the highest point total we are likely to see all year.

Seeing as my math was horribly incorrect last week, and I'm short on time, I'm skipping the Division Captain update and getting right to the...

Week 4 CPP Rankings:

1. Esco - CPP: 197.58, Last Week: 1st
It's hard to dispute Esco's dominance so far. His weekly RB2/Flex dilemma will be a moot point if everyone else keeps performing the way they have been. Even if injury strikes one of his starters, he might have the deepest bench in the league. At this rate he will be resting his starters for the playoffs by Week 9.

2. Kumpf - CPP: 172.33, Last Week: 3rd
I finally got out from behind Barnard, and I gotta tell you, it feels great. I have the #1 WR, the #1 TE, the #5 QB... and that's it. I don't think it's enough to make a Stevens Bowl run, but it should get me into the playoffs.

3. AGD - CPP: 170.48, Last Week: 4th
Every time I look at this team I think it looks perfect, then see a glaring hole at RB2. You guys desperately need to package Marshall or Welker with Richardson and upgrade that spot, then move Tampa Mike into the starting lineup. That's all I have to say about that.

4. Ajay - CPP: 166.03, Last Week: 6th
Tough loss this week, and to be honest I had some big plans for this Danny Cook video, so I hope you don't let us all down. It looks like you stumbled into a starting TE with Fleener now that he's the only guy in town for Luck, and that was really your only week spot. This is a playoff team who will ultimately see its demise due to Vick/Pryor putting up an abysmal week.

5. Weissbard - CPP: 153.38, Last Week: 9th
I have to say, this team is looking better and better. Obviously last week's ridiculousness which included your kicker and DST won't happen again. But I can't see a way that the Broncos score under 35 points, Tony G won't just die already, and if DeMarco is healthy and Sproles is involved with the offense, this team looks pretty good. Unfortunately, DeMarco is bound to get hurt, and the Saints have too many options, so I see a 6-7 season for the Beezle.

6. Bennett - CPP: 150.30, Last Week: 5th
The collapse of this team is so inevitable, it's not even worth discussing. First you had Vereen out, Roddy banged up,  and now both Spiller and FJax hurt? You can barely field a full squad. Combine that with DeSean's already-happening regression as well as Kenbrell disappearing from the offense once Amendola and Gronk are back, and I can see an all-time low score in Bennett's future. I guess I discussed it anyway.

7. BAM - CPP: 144.38, Last Week: 7th
So far BAM is the only nickname I've seen, so I'm going with it for now. I was all set to destroy you guys this week for starting both Nate Washington and Donnie Avery, but that somehow worked out. This still stands as the most top-heavy team in the league, but at 3-1, it could very well be a playoff team.

8. Barnard - CPP:143.88, Last Week: 2nd
A week after doing nearly everything right in the CPP-sense, you did pretty much everything wrong. Outside of leaving a record amount of points on your bench, you also have a shocking amount of Pats and ex-Pats on your team. I know you don't know much football outside of them, but I would think that some diversification would help your team's long term potential.

9. Joseph - CPP: 132.20, Last Week: 8th
The top 8 teams all have a decent shot at making the playoffs based on their team's talent. Anyone from here on out will likely need some lucky breaks to jump into the upper echelon of the league. I say this because we all know that Joseph is the self-proclaimed unluckiest fantasy football player ever. While he has caught some bad breaks in the past, hitching his season to the likes of RG3 and Gronk, while only have Malcom Floyd and Clifford Franklin at WR is not the most responsible way to run a team.

10. Alan - CPP: 122.20, Last Week: 13th
Muff Puff making moves! He may have had a rough loss, but he broke 100 for the first time, and that's a good sign for things to come. Despite oddly having an open slot on his roster, I like the way Team Masand is shaping up for the future. Maybe luck would start turning your way if your changed your team name to something like "Maybe I Can Hang."

11. Zacherman - CPP: 111.45, Last Week: 11th
A mysterious yet serious injury apparently has sidelined Z from his usual complaining, and it seems to have spread to his roster. It pains me to say it, but something is off with Ray Rice, so you need to use your WR depth upgrade that running game. I have a feeling we see a trade here in the next week, but will it be enough to overcome a possible 1-4 start?

12. Gutman - CPP: 107.43, Last Week: 12th
I really like the move Gutman made. Nick obviously needed a WR as badly as the Giants need a win, so Gutman sold high on Bell, bought low on Ridley, and got some QB insurance in case Kaepernick actually sucks. It's a pro move by the man who likely has the most trades in FALAFEL history. I still don't see this team going anywhere, but he will at least be respectable from here on out.

13. Donnie - CPP: 102.98, Last Week: 10th
I reeeeally wanted you to take down Z with just 65 points, but Breesus said no. Whether your luck has run out or not, those 3 wins are in the books, and you still get to play Joseph, Alan, Kimmel and Gutman, so if you catch another break or two, this could be an improbable playoff team.

14. Kimmel - CPP: 88.48, Last Week: 14th
The real-fake Kimmel jokes have been flying for weeks, but this is getting ridiculous. With your Packers on a bye last week you had no chance, and you'll likely need to go at least 7-2 the rest of the way to make the playoffs, so it seems like you're in must-win territory. ESPN has you as a 17 point favorite against an AP-less AGD, so the schedule gods have given you your chance.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Trade Analysis 1 - Barnard/Masand

Masand Gets:
Andrew Luck QB IND
Jordy Nelson WR GB

Barnard Gets:
Tom Brady QB NE
David Wilson RB NYG
Stephen Hill WR NYJ

First Take: When I first saw this trade pop up I immediately thought it was a big loss for Barnard as Wilson and Brady have lost more value than almost anyone else so far this season. I can understand buying low on one of them but grabbing both made me (as a relatively risk averse owner) very nervous.

Most Valuable Addition: This should be Brady but I never trust rookie WRs so I think this might actually be David Wilson. The danger is that if the Giants continue to be criminally awful Wilson will be lucky to get 15 carries a game even if he finally retakes the RB1 role. However, I’m still excited about his potential based on some of his preseason runs. And the RB depth in our league is so dismal that even the small potential that he becomes a viable RB2 or maybe even a low RB1 makes him the biggest part of who wins or loses this deal.

Potential Starters Gained: The QB situation remains essentially unchanged as both teams swap their QB1 and neither is much of an injury risk.  

Barnard gets a big upgrade at the Flex position as both Stephen Hill and David Wilson are better options than anything else on his team. Ideally Hill continues to improve as Geno learns how to play in the NFL and Wilson becomes a reliable RB2 and then you can look to trade some combination Jennings/Law Firm/M. Wallace for a stud WR to play opposite Megatron. If you are able to trade two of those for a WR on the level of Welker, Reggie Wayne or maybe even a buy low on Roddy White for a team in need of 2 starters this trade could really put your team in a good position for playoff contention.

Alan actually has 2 acceptable RBs even without Wilson and I really like Gio Bernard to improve almost every week as the season continues and most likely outscore Frank Gore overall. So the loss of Wilson isn’t as devasting as it would be for most teams. And the rotation of Reggie Wayne/Amendola/Jordy/Denarius Moore is an acceptable selection for the WRs and Flex spot. Your only issue is that Jordy and Amendola are constant injury risks and you have literally no one else on your team worth acknowledging let alone starting outside of that WR crew. And I have no idea who are you are going to start on the Gio and Frank Gore bye weeks as your RB2.

Masand Trade Grade: At first I thought this was a decent deal for you considering the dire straits your team is in currently.  But the lowest possible output from Brady probably equals what Luck will give you this year and considering your lack of depth, giving up two starters (even if they are very borderline) for one WR is a very dangerous strategy… Then you go and pay TEN DOLLARS for Hankerson off the waiver wire??? You could have just gotten him for free from Barnard in the deal, he was dropping him anyway! You don’t even need a WR man, you are up to your eyeballs in inconsistent WRs already. I was going to give you a B-/C+ because even though I don’t really like the upside I accept that in your position you have to take risks. But after seeing that waiver move I’m dropping you to a C- and that’s being nice.

Barnard Trade Grade: After a closer look, it appears I was wrong with my initial judgment. Even a mediocre Brady is still on the level of Luck and you have a strong enough stockpile of middle tier WRs that you should be able to handle the loss of Jordy without much pain. And the potential of David Wilson could really swing your team’s fortunes for the stretch run. Of course knowing your luck he will run over Coughlin’s foot in the parking lot and get benched for the rest of his life. I don’t see much a downside with this deal outside of that so I’m going to give you an A-.

Week 3 CPP Rankings

TRADES! TRADES! TRADES!!!

There is nothing I love more than trades. And while last week's blockbuster only happened in the NFL, this week we have two trades in our very own league.

Before I discuss the trades and get to the CPP, here is how our Division Captains look after 3 weeks:

Ajay
Named his division? No
Winning percentage of teams he drafted: .556

Esco
Named his division? No
Winning percentage of teams he drafted: .556

Joseph
Named his division? Yes, but I think we all agree he could do better
Winning percentage of teams he drafted: .556

I have a sinking feeling that the results of this year will be that it really doesn't matter who you have in your division, but we'll look at the overall draft order later on to determine who really picked the best.

Week 3 CPP Rankings:

1. Esco - CPP: 180.40, Last Week: 4th
I'll be examining each of the trades from each owner's perspective, while eagerly awaiting Esco to actually post his reaction. As our only legitimately undefeated team (by Wins and Victory Points), there aren't a ton of weaknesses on this squad other than that Dallas Clark-sized hole at TE. So while he may have bought high on Cameron, it fills a need without really hurting his core team, and you can't argue with that. The only weakness I see now is that a combination of Joique Bell/Ryan Mathews/Ryan Broyles/Brandon Bolden need to fill the RB2/Flex spots. It's not ideal, but in a 14-team league, it could be a lot worse (see: Alan).

2. Barnard - CPP: 165.23, Last Week: 5th
The Nard Dog moves up this week after another solid performance as well as a trade that I find extremely interesting. In our league, only Bennett and Ajay can really upgrade their QB position. Obviously going from Romo to Brees is an upgrade, but not a clear enough improvement to warrant throwing in other valuable players. So I am calling the Luck/Brady swap here a wash. Which makes the trade Jordy for David Wilson and Stephen Hill. I'm a firm believer in Wilson's talent, so even if he's looked like dog shit for 3 weeks, I think he still plays like a top 25 back from here on out. And Stephen Hill (and Geno Smith for that matter) don't look all that bad. So believe it or not, I'm supportive of Barnard's side of this trade, simply because he may have traded one starter for two if everything breaks right. To win this league you need upside, and Barnard's side has a whole lot of it.

3. Kumpf - CPP: 160.10, Last Week: 6th
God fucking dammit. Three weeks in a row right behind Barnard. I almost manipulated the numbers so that I'd fall to 4th, but I'm a whore to being high in my own rankings. The Cameron/Garcon trade on my end is simple. Cameron will never score 3 TDs in a game again, so I needed to sell this week. Esco's team was only missing a TE, and had Flex players to spare. So if Garcon outscores Cameron for the rest of the season, the trade is a win for me because either one would be my Flex. If Cameron outscores Dallas Clark/Brandon Myers by more than Garcon outscores his other Flex options, then it's a win for Esco as well. This could easily be the first win/win trade in FALAFEL history.

4. AGD - CPP: 151.10, Last Week: 2nd
Tough loss last week as you watched Josh Gordon tear shit up on your bench. On the bright side, you can start him this week against Alan. I was skeptical of you guys relying on Daryl Richardson as a legit RB2, but it was the only hole in your lineup and everything else looked very solid. Now color me concerned. It's only fun to start Ben Tate when your team name is Ben Things I Tate About You, so I can't imagine you're sold on your lineup right now.

5. Bennett - CPP: 149.23, Last Week: 1st
Weissbard sent me this last week:
Dan Weissbard
so yesterday i offered bennet starks/lacey/vjax for djax
and he goes "do it for tavon instead and i'll accept it" haha

First of all, that looks really cool. Secondly, Weissbard that is an absurdly bad trade for you. And finally, really Bennett??? In my opinion, V-Jax is better than Desean, but I can see how you and others would disagree. But regardless, you passed up a starting RB and an equal if not better WR just because you're blinded by Chip? You deserve to lose the rest of your games.

6. Ajay - CPP: 140.57, Last Week: 3rd
A lot of people got hit with injuries this past week, but I would argue that Ajay got it the worst. Not being able to start Reggie is one thing. Having to choose between Knowshon/Montee/Hillman/Pierre/Pead is an entirely different thing. There was no way you were going to make the right choice there. As it turned out, the only "wrong" choice was Knowshon over Hillman, but either way making those choices is a pain in the ass.

7. Billy/Marshall - CPP: 134.07, Last Week: 9th
Still no nickname for these guys, step up your game everyone. Literally nothing is off the table as long as it's quick and easy to type. In Week 3 you guys simultaneously pulled a Chris Long by leaving an injured player in your lineup, and lived up to everything I hoped this team would be by still winning your matchup. I can't wait until Week 12 when you leave both Wilson and Marshawn in on their bye and eliminate AGD from the playoffs while also making them lose the Dress-To-The-Draft side bet.

8. Joseph - CPP: 129.90, Last Week: 11th
The Commish cracks the top 10 while picking up his first win, not too shabby. It was pretty much entirely due to your old friend the Bears D, but a win is a win. I don't know what you should do about Bradshaw right now. You can't be comfortable starting him, but the way he looked last week, it makes it tough to start Jerome Simpson as your Flex. Speaking of Simpson, I would guess that Alan can't pick one of your receivers out of a police lineup.

9. Weissbard - CPP: 119.40, Last Week: 7th
The only thing I like about your team remains its name. But to be honest, with Peyton re-defining the league's passing records, DeMarco looking healthy and effective and the rest of the lineup holding their own, this team isn't quite as bad as I initially thought. I still think you have no chance at the playoffs, but if you somehow make it, I would not want to face Peyton in a winner-take-all matchup.

10. Donnie - CPP: 111.00, Last Week: 8th
Wins his third week in a row, yet falls two spots? Donnie continues his tradition by pulling out a win without being in the top 7 in scoring. In fact, he's currently 10th in scoring. But those wins are in the books, and he likely only needs 4 more in the next 9 games to make the playoffs. And with Stafford, Arian, Alf, Julio and Witten, along with a possible Percy return, The Don could make another improbable Stevens Bowl run.

11. Zacherman - CPP: 109.73, Last Week: 13th
Tough loss last week for Z, who had his best chance at notching his first win. Nicks throwing up a goose egg obviously sucked (and he fucked me in two leagues), as did Ray Ray's injury, but I get the feeling that this team should just be better than it is. I don't know what you can do other than wait and hope, because there aren't a lot of trade pieces there for you.You can get revenge for the 2010 Stevens Bowl against Donnie this week, but if you don't, this season might be over.

12. Gutman - CPP: 98.03, Last Week: 10th
Before the season I though people were too high on Kaepernick because he really had no one to throw to. But even I didn't think it would look this bad. Other than Muscle Hamster, I don't even see anyone on your team that has any trade value. You're in a postion like Z, but you have a little bit more depth, and a lot less talent. Could we be witnessing a season that puts you near the Long Line?

13. Alan - CPP: 95.77, Last Week: 14th
You've had bad luck so far, so you deserved a somewhat lucky win against Weissbard. Your trade of Wilson is something you never want to do: sell low. But a lineup of Luck/Gore/Gio/Jordy/Wayne/Gates with Amendola joining the fray once he gets healthy isn't bad at all. I think you lost the trade, but when you're averaging under 75 points per game, you need to do something.

14. Kimmel - CPP: 94.27, Last Week: 12th
Usually when we have a new guy, they win the damn league. I guess we are calling you Kimmel, so you're not technically new, but you have had some rough luck. Fitz is out of the top 20 at WR, MJD is out of the top 30 at RB, and the depth I though this team had just hasn't panned out. You get to take on Weissbard this week, but with Rodgers on a bye, you'll need an Arizona miracle to pull this one out.