2012 Draft Preview

One year ago, a hurricane hit the East Coast, stranding some of us in Vegas and forcing Donnie to autodraft his team again. I don’t know what was more horrifying, the experience Alan, Esco, Joseph and myself had at the Riviera, or Donnie seeing that Yahoo drafted him two defenses and three tight ends.

This year, after the wildly popular First Annual FALAFEL Draft Madness bracket, we head to Nashville. In the process, we are losing a few key members to graduate school and Judaism, but at least Bennett isn’t coming.

We’re now at the point in the preseason where each league member starts to think about what their team will look like in the upcoming season. As FALAFEL’s resident blogger/power ranker, I take it upon myself to think about what every team will look like, and perform a Mock Auction. The Mock Auction has no dollar values, and leans more towards the Mock and less towards the Auction, but it is an important exercise regardless, as I typically nail my predictions for Barnard, scaring him away from players he loves.

On to the Mocktion:

Kumpf

Most likely to draft: Tony Romo. It’s hard to avoid the Cowboy love deep in the heart of Texas, and Romo is undervalued in my opinion.

Other probables: Mohamed Sanu, Ricky Williams, Tim Riggins

Will not draft: Kenny Britt. I love my Rutgers guys, but when you get a DUI on an Army base with a female cadet in your car, that’s where I draw the line. Who am I kidding, that’s fucking awesome. I would gladly take Britt for the right price.

Ajay

Most likely to draft: Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd loves him some Josh McDaniels, so him and Ajay have that in common.

Other probables: Laurent Robinson, Dominic Toretto, Aaron Hernandez

Will not draft: Eli Manning. Burn Ajay once, shame on you. Burn Ajay twice? You get a second Super Bowl ring and host SNL.

Zacherman

Most likely to draft: Stephen Hill. “You guys don’t even know, Hill is the next Calvin Johnson. I’ll be laughing all the way to the Stevens Bowl. I don’t even need to pay my entry fee. No really, I’m not paying.”

Other probables: Jared from Subway, Bilal Powell, Jermichael Finley

Will not draft: Antonio Gates or Andre Johnson. Healthy seasons from them would have put you in the playoffs last year.

Weissbard

Most likely to draft: Victor Cruz. One of the Giant fans is going to overpay for the salsa dancing receiver’s breakout season, and I can see Weiss doing it just so he can bust a move at the draft. Either that or he’ll miss the draft entirely because he’s too distracted by the arcade games and skeeball at Dave & Buster’s

Other probables: Torrey Smith, Avicii, Steve Weatherford

Will not draft: Brandon Jacobs. Weiss respects loyalty, and players that don’t tiptoe in the backfield.

Donaldson

Most likely to draft: Mike Winchell. Kid just wins games

Other probables: Michael Strahan, Kelly Ripa, The Ronimal

Will not draft: Danny Watkins. Not only is he an Eagles offensive lineman, but those fahckin firefightahs are a bunch of fahckin queeahs.

Gutman

Most likely to draft: Sage Rosenfels. He might not even make the Vikings team, but he is probably the only player in the league who would miss his draft to go to Birth Right.

Other probables: Shady McCoy, David Akers, David Guetta

Will not draft: Any player who wears un-tailored football pants. So unstylish right now.

Esco

Most likely to draft: Mike Wallace. I feel like Esco has Wallace every year, and provided he signs this weekend, Wallace will provide value this year.

Other probables: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Doug Martin, Eric LeGrand

Will not draft: Jimmy Graham. He paid $6 for him this year. He’ll likely have to drop at least $26 for him this year, and that ain’t the Commish’s style.

Billy

Most likely to draft: Drew Brees. Brees won Billy a championship last year, so there’s no reason to think Lutz won’t go back to the well with his Bourbon Street buddy again this year.

Other probables: Percy Harvin, Keith Stone, Santonio Holmes

Will not draft: While sober. When you’re the champ, you do what you want. And Billy never wants to be sober.

Kimmel

Most likely to draft: Matthew Stafford. Looking at your final roster from last year, he was literally the only player who is worth more than $15 in the auction this year. You owe him loyalty.

Other probables: Mikel LeShoure, Shonn Greene, Chad Johnson

Will not draft: Mark Sanchez. Why pick a QB who you’ll want benched by Week 4?

Barnard

Most likely to draft: Tom Brady. For all the shit I give Barnard, he’s usually a very logical fantasy footballer. He probably thinks that the return of Josh McDaniels will put Brady in 2007 form. He forgets that “throw it deep to Moss” is no longer an option, and Tom Terrific likely won’t be worth the money it costs to get him.

Other probables: Brandon Lloyd, Terrell Owens, Magic Mike

Will not draft: Arian Foster. In all the conversations I’ve had with him about fantasy this year, he always mentions Rice and McCoy as the top 2 RBs, so he clearly wants none of Foster. Maybe he realizes that a pasty white kid taking a guy named Arian is not the best for his thug image.

AGD

Most likely to draft: Tim Tebow. Their name might imply that they’re ambiguously gay, but after seeing Tebow shirtless in the rain, there’s no ambiguity about it.

Other probables: Joe McKnight, RG3, the McCourty Twins

Will not draft: From the same location. Seriously, how is this gonna work? Can you both click +1 in the auction? Is one of you just drafting and the other taking a back seat? I need a logistics update.

Joseph

Most likely to draft: Hakeem Nicks. When Bennett inevitably mentions that he fractured his foot, Nick will give a biting comeback that will shut Bennett up for the rest of the draft

Other probables: David Wilson, Dez Bryant, Cam Newton

Will not draft: Marcedes Lewis. Though we will be drafting at Dave & Buster’s, Nick will not be in attendance, so the Lewis-for-chicken wing trade is not on the table.

Bennett

Most likely to draft: Michael Vick. With his wrist and ribs now ailing him, Vick will come at a draft day discount!

Other probables: DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Freddie Mitchell

Will not draft: Kevin Kolb. Even Bennett doesn’t make the same mistake more than twice.

Alan

Most likely to draft: Marshawn Lynch. It’s like clockwork with Alan, he always takes the RB who had a breakout the year before. In 2010, it was Chris Johnson. In 2011, it was Jamaal Charles (oops). This year it seems like either Lynch or McCoy fits the bill, but I’m betting on Lynch.

Other probables: Eli Manning, Rob Gronkowski, Dan Gronkowski (after he accidentally bids $25 on the wrong Gronk)

Will not draft: Ben Roethlisberger. He’s taken Big Ben in the last two auctions, but despite their similar approaches in picking up girls, I can’t see him doing it again.

I’ll see most of you wingnuts this weekend. I’ll see a few of you in the playoffs. And I likely will never see Bennett again.

Now that’s ending on a high note.

Best Year Ever

I never really watched those Best Year Ever shows on VH1, I spent most of my TV time in college watching four straight hours of live SportsCenter  and trying to notice the difference in Josh Elliott’s jokes or Hannah Storm’s wardrobe (miss you Josh!). If I had to pick a best year ever, it would probably 1999. I was in 6^th grade, ruled the Allen W. Roberts Elementary School playground, danced with a girl for the first time at a full arm’s-length distance, and dominated the Little League diamond for the last time. It was also the first time I played fantasy football, and my life has never been the same since.

The first pick in my first-ever draft was Brett Favre, because my buddy was a huge Packer fan (he also took Ryan Longwell in the fourth round). My first round pick was Marshall Faulk, and I won the championship. Unfortunately, things have gone mostly downhill from there in my fantasy career. I’ve made it well-publicized that I am the only non-Kimmel league member who has yet to make the playoffs, and that is what I consider success in our league. Once the playoffs start, anything can happen. Hell, Alan or a Yahoo-drafted team could win it all. But if you make the playoffs, you should be happy with your season.

That’s why this year will be the Best Year Ever: I am guaranteeing that I make the playoffs. That’s the reason for me anyway. For the rest of the contenders for the Stevens Bowl, and also Bennett, here are some more reasons:

Esco Is Commissioner

Joseph’s reign as commish was highlighted mainly by excellent division names, and there is absolutely something to be said for that. Ajay’s one-year term was marked by laziness and his team making a surprise run to the Stevens Bowl thanks to some fortuitous waiver wire positioning (conspiracy theory?).

With Esco in charge, I feel like we will get more effort than we got from Ajay and more ethics than we got from Nick. The creation of our league would be a nice first step considering we’re a month away from the draft, but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. It’s not like he can lose the alcohol exemption for the league.

Switching From ESPN to Yahoo

After three years in its current format (and at least six years of Fiji fantasy leagues that I’ve been a part of), FALAFEL will move from ESPN to Yahoo. There are clearly some upsides which I will discuss a little later, but let’s not forget what we’ll miss without Yahoo: the generic team helmet logos, the 20 character team name limits, the player updates that are 3-5 days old, and the only reason to visit a website with an exclamation point in its name (until Josh Schultz starts his own website that just has this image).

Alan Has A Girlfriend

In case I need to expand any further, he’s having sex. With a girl. On the reg. So much that his dick hurts. But also feels good. Because of all the sex.

Unlimited Length of Team Names

My team name idea two years ago was BarnardShavedHisFaceWithAlansBallRazor, which falls into the “funny because it’s true category,” along with “I never thought my sister would find someone who cared about what other people thought as much as she did - until I met Craig.” It never came to fruition, and my team suffered a disappointing 8^th place finish.

This year, there is no character limit on team names, and therefore no limit to the depravity that can come from our former-former commissioner. I have very high expectations from this league, so hopefully we can avoid “ajay” winning best team name in 2012.

Bennett Looks To Extend His Record 12-Game Losing Streak

This has not gotten nearly enough attention: After winning Week 1 against AGD, Bennett lost an insane 12 weeks in a row. He didn’t just lose, he was destroyed, dropping his games by an average of 25 points per week. I honestly hope we don’t see anything like this ever again, as I respect this league, but I am interested to see how far Bennett can take this. If I were him I would skip the draft entirely and trust that ESPN picks a better team.

Free Agent Auction

This is the single most exciting aspect of our league this year. My baseball keeper league switched to this three years ago, and it has made the regular season infinitely more exciting. Not only do we remove the inane process of rewarding the worst team in the league with the best shot at landing free agents, but we get bidding wars for four months after the initial auction. This will inevitably lead to Lutz outbidding Zacherman by $1 for Joe McKnight, and more enjoyably, Barnard dropping $50 for Donte Stallworth as no one else bids. There is nothing I am looking forward to more than this process…

State of the NFL

…Except maybe this. The top three RBs this year are Arian, Rice and LeSean in some order. The top five QBs are Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Cam and Stafford. The top WR is Calvin and the top TEs are Gronk and Graham. But of these 11 players, who is worth the highest bid? An argument can be made for most of them. And after that, who’s next at each position? There is a huge drop-off after each of these players.

The pass-happy state of the NFL puts QBs, WRs and TEs at a premium, but the lack of workhorse backs makes the top RBs more valuable than ever. That conundrum will be looming over every bid on draft day, and will create a bigger gap than ever in our league. Last year 35% of teams were within a game of .500. Two years ago it was 50%. This year I think we’ll see half the teams close to 10 wins and half close to 10 losses, depending on the approach taken during the draft. And as I mentioned earlier, I will be one of those 10-win teams.

I’ll see most of you in Nashville in a month. For the rest of you, get your priorities straight.

FALAFEL 2012 Posts

Coming in July...

Stevens Bowl Preview

What started in Vegas will finish on Christmas weekend. It's been four long months but we're finally here...

Shah! Lutz! It's The Steven's Bowl!

That really never gets old.

This week will be a quick rankings, as I assume most of you aren't at work, or are having parties while you're there. Except Gutman, who is stuck in the backwoods of Tennessee instead of enjoying one of the Crazy Nights.

Bitching About Kicking

My study this year clearly showed that kickers are the least predictable of any of the roster positions, outside of Defense. Defense has a wider range of scoring, so that makes sense. Kickers are just worthless. I won't be at Winter Meetings, but I seriously want to eliminate them next year. They add nothing to the enjoyment of fantasy football and waste $1 of our draft budget.

Consolation Prizes

Esco: I think that nice wad of cash that Barnard is sending you is enough. A championship would have been nice, but ask Zacherman how money can make up for the lack of the Stevens Bowl trophy.

AGD: After another respectable finish, I'm starting to come around on the whole multiple owners thing. So what do you get for the gay couple that has everything? Some "Made for Each Other" gay pillowcases! No need to tell the league which one of you is which puzzle piece.

And now for the main event...

Shah! Lutz! It's The Steven's Bowl!

The Stevens Bowl: Ajay vs. Billy

Quick Summary: I've been over Ajay's team too many times already. Odd draft strategy, didn't quite pan out, but his work on the waiver wire put him in the best situation possible heading into the playoffs. He's caught some breaks, had some nice matchups, and he very well could win six straight to end the year. As for Billy, I am constantly amazed that his team produces every week. Not just Brees and Foster, but everyone. When Harvin gets shut out, Reggie puts up 27. When Lloyd has an off week, Fasano finds the endzone. He doesn't just find ways to win, he finds ways to destroy his opponent. Right now, these really are the two best teams in our league.

QBs: Romo has had a great year, and he can put up stats with the best of them. But the best of them is Brees, and Brees on MNF spells 25+. Romo might keep up, but then again he might not. Edge: Billy

RBs Arian and Reggie might make the most unlikely dominant backfield out there, but they are as reliably great as Brees is. No matter who Ajay plays of Gore/Helu/Spiller, they'll be extremely lucky to match Billy's duo. This is very similar to the QB situation. Edge: Billy

WRs: Though one of them somehow produces week after week, this is Billy's clear weakness. Unfortunately for Mr. Lutz, it also happens to be Ajay's strength. Big Edge: Ajay

TEs: Jermaine Gresham vs. Anthony Fasano is the equivalent of Bennett playing himself. No one would watch and no one wins. Edge: Even

Defenses: Ajay's Broncos have a nice matchup against the turnover prone Bills, but could surrender some garbage time points. I can't possibly think Billy is leaving the Bears D in against the Pack, but as it stands they are his only defense. Edge: Ajay

Owner Awareness: As I've said again and again, this is where Ajay separates himself from his opponents. If Billy replaces that Bears D then he might have a chance, but there's slim pickings out there. Big Edge: Ajay

Final Verdict: This is as close a matchup as we've had in these playoffs. The question is, can Billy's stars put up enough points to compete with Ajay's depth. With the matchup coming down to Brees vs. Roddy on MNF, I say there's gonna be a party in NOLA, even if Billy's the only one attending. Stevens Bowl Champion: Billy

Final consolation prizes and the Stevens Bowl virtual trophy will be handed out next week. I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, or just a solid weekend.

Semi-Final Preview

When any beloved entity loses one of its signature members unexpectedly at the end of a season, it's a tough moment. When that member is vital to the organization's identity and provides its members and followers with both joy and pain, sometimes simultaneously, it's that much harder. Needless to say, this past weekend we all experienced one of those moments. Of course I am talking about the events that went down during the season finale of Boardwalk Empire. I won't say any more for those who haven't seen it yet or inexplicably don't watch the show.

As for our league, well let's just say that every miracle run must come to an end. Now I'm speaking about both our former commissioner, former league-member I guess, and our mostly-automated defending champion.

Bitching About Kicking

QB - Rodgers 18, Vick 11 - Experts 320, Random 178
Difference per game of 10.14
RB - Rice 18, Helu 12 - Experts 228, Random 130
Difference per game of 7
WR - Calvin 3, Walter 13 - Experts 171, Random 123
Difference per game of 3.43
TE - Gronk 28, Graham 5 - Experts 152, Random 73
Difference per game of 7.18
Kicker - Akers 14, Barth 2 - Experts 115, Random 91
Difference per game of 1.71
Defense - Ravens 10, Lions 27 - Experts 138, Random 145
Difference per game of -0.5

Consolation Prizes

Donaldson

Unfortunately I have no idea how much losing affects you. I am willing to bet that less than 1% of your emails to the listserve have referenced fantasy football, whether you include the F8's or not. What I do know is that you suffered an even bigger loss this week in the form of a video being taken off Youtube. While I cannot rectify that situation, I can offer this gif, which is sure to make you smile.

Joseph

If you had missed the playoffs while having the most points scored, I can see wanting to take a year off. But you made the playoffs. Barnard missed thanks to losing both starting RBs in the same week, Zacherman easily has a case for making the playoffs, and I would likely be in your place if a rash of injuries didn't rape my team all year. So although Monday night was a truly excruciating way to end your season, I think this retirement talk is a bit of an overreaction. Your consolation prize is this movie that Larry David directed that no one ever saw.

Semi-Final Preview

Matchup 1 - Esco vs. Ajay

Quick Summary: This is the matchup of the best drafted team against the best managed team. Esco dominated draft day, no question about that. The depth of his team allowed him to make risky trades at will, knowing he had a solid group to fall back on if it didn't work out. Ajay on the other hand drafted a group of under-performing receivers, non-performing backs, and two legitimate starting QBs. He flipped Stafford for Gore, then worked the waiver wire so well that he now has some extremely tough roster decisions to make.

QBs: With Big Ben either out or severely banged up, Esco is forced to start Michael Vick. Yes, forced to start the man Matthew Berry wrote 2,000 words about as the #1 overall pick, and Gutman decided to spend nearly a quarter of his budget on during the draft. Vick faces a Jets D that has been surprisingly vulnerable this year, last week notwithstanding. While he could put up good numbers, Romo gets to feast on a Bucs D that is probably the worst in the league. Edge: Ajay

RBs: Ajay has some decent matchups here, and his backs are pretty much the only options on their respective teams, but he can't compete with Esco's stable of Rice, Bush and Hillis. And for those of you asking yourselves "Wait, didn't you trade him Hillis?," my response is that he would have had Benson who gets to run train on the Rams pathetic excuse for a run defense. Edge: Esco

WRs: This is obviously where Ajay's team shines, but the decision between Austin and Robinson could be the difference between winning and losing. Good luck. Esco if I were you I would want Ben to sit. If he plays, they'll likely attempt to run on San Fran, but if he sits I can easily see Chuck Batch throwing bombs to Wallace and Brown all day. Edge: Ajay

TEs: If Gresham scores, he's startable. If not, you're getting three points. Jimmy Graham is probably Esco's best receiver. Big Edge: Esco

Defense: Ajay is starting a shitty defense against a shitty offense. Esco is starting a great defense against a great offense. Basically a coin flip, but I think Patrick Peterson is due again. Slight Edge: Ajay

Owner Awareness: These are the two owners who have been the most aware all season long. Ajay has managed his team better during the season, but to give him the edge would be an insult to Esco's draft and his lack of needing to manage the team. Edge: Even

Final Verdict: Based on regular season scoring, this should be no contest. But Ajay is peaking at the right time, and Esco had a rough week last week. With Roddy and the Cowboys playing before Sunday, Ajay will likely be up 40+ before Esco even takes the field. But the Wallace/kicker combo on MNF should be enough to have Esco prevail by a slim margin. Winner: Esco

Matchup 2: Billy vs. AGD

Quick Summary: AGD was one of my sleepers during the season, their consistent production was never spectacular but it got the job done. You could always count on them to break 80, but they would rarely break 100. Unless of course they were facing Nick in a win-or-go-home situation. As for Mr. Lutz, he has the benefit of being the newcomer to the league. Two years ago Alan won in his first year, last year Donnie and Yahoo won in their first year. So there is certainly precedent. Does lightening strike thrice?

QBs: Going into the season Brees vs. Eli would have been a no-brainer. And this season Brees has been his usual, dominant self, even cutting back on interceptions. But Eli's play has been truly amazing. He has single handedly won the G-Men a few games, and more surprisingly, hasn't lost them any. Part of this is due to the sudden collapse of their running game, but Eli's play has definitely hit a new level. Even so, he's no Brees. Edge: Billy

RBs: I can't believe this is the case, but Foster/Bush looks poised to put up more than MoJo/Turner/Tolbert. The matchups and current play of the backs make this pretty clear cut actually. MoJo is the wild card here. If he puts up 20+ again, then AGD has a chance, but I can't imagine the Falcons not putting 10 in the box tonight. I can easily see Arian putting up 30 on Carolina, even if they put 10 and Cam in the box. Slight Edge: Billy

WRs: The receivers in this matchup are a pretty pathetic group overall, especially for a Semi-Final matchup. Honestly, I don't think it's even worth discussing. Edge: Even

TEs: This is pretty much the same situation as the receivers, but I think Keller has the much higher ceiling. Edge: AGD

Defense: Bears D has a better matchup, but if they continue to be incapable of moving the ball on offense, Seattle will score some points. The thought of Alex Smith against the Steelers is too appetizing to pass up. Edge: AGD

Owner Awareness: Neither of you made too many moves during the season, which is just not fun. I'll give this one to AGD thanks to their blackmailing trade strategy. Whether it was successful or not, it made the league more entertaining. Edge: AGD

Final Verdict: Looking above, Billy has the edge in QB and RB, which makes sense due to his Brees/Foster dream team. Any advantages AGD has won't be able to compete with that. At least you guys knocked Nick into retirement, like that Bills backer did to Favre last year. Winner: Billy

See you next week for the Stevens Bowl Preview!