The “What If” Analysis
As low scorer of the week (special shout out to the Falcons Defense (-3), Stevan Ridley (2.8), Shayne Graham (4) and Tom Brady (4.4)), I have the honor/pleasure/obligation to craft the Week 4 Weekly Write-up. This will not be a generic write-up where I bash every team, although some of that will certainly be done. Rather, this write-up will be rooted in the “What If”. No, not the “what if I had started one of my bench players” or “what if Tom Brady didn’t throw 2 interceptions and fumble once in an embarrassing Monday night performance”. This weekly write-up is the “What If … I had someone else’s schedule in the league”.
A bit of background – I started doing this analysis last year after everyone started hating on my 0-6 start because I wanted to see if I truly had a bad team or if it was a product of the matchups (as an fyi, it was a product of the matchups… not that anyone cares). Given that this will be my first major email contribution to the league I figured it should be substantial. I do not know as much about football as Esco, I am not as self-deprecating as Barnard, as cutting as Nijo, etc., so I have decided to go with a somewhat analytical approach combined with my general opinion of your teams.
The Power Rankings generated from the “What if” analysis are based on the Average Win/Loss rate a team would have across all schedules. I think analysis helps to show consistency of teams and may also have you cursing the fantasy football gods for your bad luck with scheduling. I have attached the excel file for people who are bored and/or have nothing better to do.
Before the power rankings a few fun facts
· - Donny (413.5 pts against) and Gutman (409.9 pts against) have had the hardest schedule to date; next closes is over 30 points less. No real sympathy here though as they are 11 and 12 on the power rankings.
· - Bennett has had by far the easiest schedule (282.7 pts against) to a stellar 2-2 record. Next closest is wbard with 318 against.
· - Having the highest cumulative score doesn’t always get you the best record. Sorry wbard your 416.4 pts (next closes is Barnard with 384.2) has only yielded 2 wins due to consistency of performance combined with a somewhat unlucky schedule, but the power rankings still love you for this week. More to come.
The Power Rankings
Avg Record
| |||
Team
|
Wins
|
Losses
| |
1
|
Barnard
|
3.00
|
1.00
|
2
|
Weissbard
|
2.71
|
1.29
|
3
|
Joseph
|
2.29
|
1.71
|
4
|
Masand
|
2.21
|
1.79
|
5
|
Reap/Belf
|
2.14
|
1.86
|
6
|
Lutz/Marsh
|
2.07
|
1.93
|
7
|
Escalante
|
1.86
|
2.14
|
8
|
Shah
|
1.79
|
2.21
|
9
|
Kumpf
|
1.64
|
2.36
|
10
|
Bennett
|
1.57
|
2.43
|
11
|
Gutman
|
1.43
|
2.57
|
12
|
Donaldson
|
1.21
|
2.79
|
13
|
Levine
|
1.14
|
2.86
|
14
|
Zacherman
|
0.93
|
3.07
|
Barnard (We Made It)
Word on the street is that you don’t remember the havana nagila that broke out at this year’s draft… if it was due to drunkenness, you should thank the bartenders and pray that whoever comes out last this year bestows upon you the 5 pre-draft shots; it may not have helped the 2 league members who had to partake this year (8th and 13th in the power ranking) but you are an anomaly. With that said, I haven’t been in the league long enough to assess you fantasy football acumen and from what everyone says, including yourself, it has not been pretty. Everyone shits on Barnard, but this year Barnard might be doing the shitting. This team could be destined for greatness. You would be 4-0 or 3-1 in 10 of the 14 schedules with only one losing record (if you had Donnys), so your record is no fluke and your team is legit. Star power at key positions (Lynch, Green, Rivers), depth at every position and the potential for a number one receiver coming back in week 12, thanks to your trade with wbard, that could carry you deep into the playoffs. You may look to improve your WR2 position in the interim by trading away some of your depth (see Shah/Masand Trade), but if not, your team is still very formidable and more importantly, consistent unlike the #2 team in these power rankings.
Weissbard (Even Esco Can’t Get Me Laid)
Your team is off to a good start scoring in the triple digits 2 of the first 4 weeks, but I am skeptical if that will continue. The trade for smith was a nice boost at WR2 but Flacco is garbage and I don’t see Smith catching 60+ yard tip passes for tuddys on a weekly basis. Jordy, Cutler, and Thomas should be solid fantasy contributors all year but after that I am highly skeptical mainly because of your rb situation. Bradshaw is in a time share and cant possibly score a receiving touchdown every week , Ball hasn’t done much in his 3 games on a prolific offense, and Tate, assuming he is back this week, just isnt that exciting on a pretty miserable offense. The Power Rankings like you this week as you would be 4-0 or 3-1 in 8 of the 14 schedules and similar to Barnard would only have one losing record (donnys schedule). A bit unfortunate to be 2-2 but your team will likely make a strong push for the playoff, even if under the Nijo rule.
Joseph (Inomin8gehrig4 the #icebucket)
Another team off to a solid start this young fantasy football season and the solid start will likely translate into a playoff run for the commish. As with team “Even Esco Cant Get Me Laid”, you would be 3-1 in 8 of the 14 schedules. However, what kept you from eclipsing wbard from the number 2 spot in the rankings is that in 4 of the 12 schedules you would currently have a losing record. This is no reflection on the quality of your team as it realistically has underperformed. Shady has not been shady, but even if he doesn’t come close to the season he had last year, he is better than his current ranking of 28th. QB and RB2 are really my only concerns with this team, but Big Ben is serviceable so the only real hole is RB2. The combo of Taliaferro/MJD/McFadden wont get it done on a weekly basis but your flex is strong with a sold receiving core. Im sure you will make a move to improve you RB2 slot and potentially QB but if not, this team is still in good position. You are in what looks to be the toughest division this year but a top 6 seems likely.
Masand (AP is Weissbard’s BabySitter)
This ranking is nonsensical. Sure the Power Rankings have you batting cleanup and you have put up some solid numbers, but it defies logic. You would be above 500 in 5 of the 14 schedules and below 500 in only 3 of the 14 schedules so from that perspective the ranking is justified. However, your team leaves something to be desired. Luck, the only true asset left on this team, is off to an insane start this year and while he should be a top 5 fantasy QB all year, his 26.9 weekly Avg seems high. Jennings is a solid RB1 and if Eli can build off of last weeks stellar performance, Jennings will likely finish as a top 10 back. But after that the wheels fall off. You traded your greatest asset (other than Luck) away for a WR3 (maybe) and a Flex RB. Asiata will not score 28 pts again in his career and will likely start to split time at RB. This team has been hurt by the injury bug (Pitta) and by the beating up children bug. There is less than a 1% chance that Peterson sees the field this year so you should probably drop him; he wasn’t smoking weed like Josh Gordon… he was “disciplining” children. We know Alan loves him some Allen but this team isnt making the playoffs… even with loads of Luck.
Belfer/Reap (Rob Woods’ Giant Cock)
At 2-2, AGD can’t be happy; they had a rough first week which really brought down there chances for a top 3 Power Ranking and all but sealed their fate for a 2-2 start. In 6 of the 14 schedules, AGD would be 3-1, but that is less than 50% so cant really feel bad especially since in 4 of the 14 schedules you would be under 500. Be happy at 2-2 and ride your deep team to another playoff berth. Lacy will play better than he has the first 4 weeks, he was playing against the best run defenses after all, but your receivers are about where they should be. This team has some depth to bolster the receiving core with a legit WR1 but either way the Wilson, Lacy, Gio core along with WRs that can go off in a given week should be enough to get you to the dance.
Lutz/Marshall (Big Nutz Black Dick)
At 3-1 this duo should be very happy. Your team had lackluster performances in week 2-3, but were excellent in weeks 1-4. In 5 of the 14 schedules, BNBD would be 3-1, which is less than 50% so to escape a few bad weeks with a 3-1 record keeps the owners smiling as it could’ve been worse with 4 of the 14 schedules giving you a record of under 500. With JC back to full strength this team looks keep the ball rolling with a formidable match-up against NIJO. This team is not deep and will not continually get 22.5 from its flex but there is enough star power (JC, Stafford, Jeffrey, Bennett) mixed in with other solid contributors (Morris, Johnson,) to make a run at the playoffs, barring injury of course; also on this team’s side is the weakest division with the 9th, 13th and 14th ranked teams in the Power Ranking, and a child beating team that is highly overrated. You should like your chances this year.
Escalante (Alan Loves Him Some Allen, D)
We are now getting into the teams that have an average win rate of less than 2. There is only 1 shedule (Wbards) in which Esco would be above 500. Its hard for me to gauge this team; Esco seems to find a way to put together some wins and make the right fantasy moves but other than a solid week 1 performance the team has been uninspired. Snagging Graham, Benji and Allen in early season trades will likely pay-off and Killa Cam will likely Avg more than 14.8 pts/gm. Stacey and Sproles will be hit or miss, boom or bust all year but this team still has enough depth to make some moves down the road to make a final push for a playoff spot. Esco is in the toughest division but until the champ is knocked out you have to like his chances to make a push.
Shah (Ajay Temp)
The lack of team name is not working for you, but everyone loved your trade rape of Alan. Dez and Sanders are a solid duo at WR, Kap is a top 10 QB, Gronk will continue to get healthy and finish as a top 5 TE. You have a mish mash of RBs all of which are low end RB2 or high end Flexes. A potential trade to bolster the RB position and clear out some depth could quickly put this team back in the conversation for a playoff berth, especially in the weakest division. The power rankings don’t reflect the aforementioned potential as 3 of your 4 weeks were mediocre. In 2 of the 14 schedules you would be above 500 but in 5 of the 14 schedules you would be below 500 so 2-2 feels about right for this team. Im guessing this team will continue to climb in the power rankings over the upcoming weeks but the team needs to come together soon to have a shot at a playoff berth.
Kumpf (Mind Of The Married Man)
This team would be under 500 in half of the schedules and above 500 in only 2, so you should be quite happy to be at 2-2. This may be the last team I have positive things to say about mostly because I think your team has underperformed and you filled a glaring need by picking up a RB2 in a trade with Donny that helped our raining league champ take down the ship last year. Mathews is always an injury risk but as we have seen this year, who isnt? Demariyius has let you down a bit but there is no way he is not a top 15 receiver. He is unlikely to find a top 5 finish given the love Manning has been showing to Sanders but either way, your WR core is formidable. Top end star power with Ryan, Bell, Jones, and Thomas as well as serviceable players at other positions will make this team tough to beat down stretch. Barring injury I like this team, but unfortunately you are in what looks to be the toughest division.
Bennett (It Ertz When Eifert)
The epitome of generic, this team has had the weakest schedule and is 500. It could only have gotten worse for you in other schedules with 5 opportunities to be below 500 including 0-4 under Nijo’s schedule. Be happy being generic and not making the playoffs this year. Forte and Cobb will be solid all year but the rest of the team will likely flounder and be hit or miss… mainly miss. Time share RB2, no WR2 (fitzy aint fitzy no more), a QB1ish and limited depth. You are still in the thick of your division at 2-2 but Wbard and Reap/Belf are light years ahead. Don’t worry Bennett. On the plus side… you likely wont finish last as the next 4 teams are painful to watch.
Gutman (Bell’s Sankey Blount)
Im gonna go out on a limb and say at this point in the season you did not want to be 0-4 and have already traded away your best asset not named Rodgers and your rookie flier, who looks to be flying high for running back depth. To be fair, in 11 of the 14 schedules you would have at least 1 win and in 8 of the 14 schedules you would be at least 500. But fate dealt you the second hardest schedule coupled with a bad team. Your team lacks star power but surprisingly has a plethora of RB3s and maybe a RB2 If we are being generous. Pray on the weak via trade during bye weeks and you might be able to add some star power to pair with Arod and turn in respectable finish. Realistically, a playoff run is out of the question as Reap/Belf and Wbard are gonna have a better record than you and the Nijo rule is a pipe dream.
Donaldson (Calvin, Stills and Cruz)
Patty D… you have had the hardest schedule to date. However, in only 4 of the 14 schedules would you be 500 or better. No wins to date is a tough pill to swallow because you would have at least 1 win in 12 of the 14 schedules, but your team very top heavy and its currently toppling. Manning and Megatron will keep you in the picture most weeks but short of record breaking days on a weekly basis, your lack of serviceable starters at other positions will keep on the losing side of head to head matches more times than not the rest of the season. I understand why you made the trade with kumpf but your top 2 RBs are both in time shares and are both old… not a recipe for the winning sauce. I would test the trade market for Mega and Manning to see what you can get in return to bolster some other positions. You can always call in a few favors to see if Tony Gionopolis can crack some skulls.
Levine (Kimmel’s Bald Dome)
1) Drunk people make bad decisions 2) I hate Mathew Berry; Mr Berry…. It is not more luckily than not that Tom Brady will go back to being Tom Brady. Thanks to whoever dropped Andy Dalton. He isnt a top 5 fantasy QB like his numbers showed last year but anything is better than Tom Brady. There are only 3 of 14 schedules where I would be 500 (none which I would be better). Luckily I was able to have one of those schedules, haven’t completed been eliminated and in the weakest division, but I wont be in any race for the Nijo rule this year. Here’s to not getting last place.
Zacherman (Squeaky Curd Factory)
There is only one schedule where you would be 500. You currently have hot potato. Things aren’t looking good overall. You still have drew brees who can help you win a week here and there. Your RBs are on the low end of RB2s (and that might be generous). You have a lot of big names and receiver but they just haven’t panned out yet. Percy is in a very unselfish offense so he will likely not put up big points on a regular basis. Vjax is on his 2nd QB of the season already (but Mike Evans is out for a few weeks which could help… sorry Bennett). Welker is concussion prone and Manning seems to like his new toy better. And Djax will be highly volatile as ‘skin.
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