Trade Analysis

Welcome to the FALAFEL Blog's first guest post, by our resident Trade Analyzer, Mr. Adam Escalante. Nick, see what happens when you send something legible? It gets printed! Here's Esco's takes on what went down this week:


I apologize for not analyzing the trades of last week; I was too upset at Alan for giving Donny a legitimate running back that I couldn’t focus.

Okay let’s do this. First up, a 6 player deal including Zacherman and trade master Alan Masand.

The “Projected Fantasy Points” Column is what Yahoo estimates the player will score for the rest of the year. While Yahoo! is pretty awful at predictions, it’s at least a start.

Zacherman - Players to trade:
Reggie Wayne - Projected Points: 89
Philip Rivers - Projected Points: 222
DeAngelo Williams - Projected Points: 80

Alan - Players to trade:
Andre Johnson - Projected Points: 101
Delone Carter - Projected Points: 49
Victor Cruz - Projected Points: 65

Yahoo Winner: Alan in a landslide (391-215). This isn’t even close, not a good start for Zacherman.

Best Player Involved: Some would point to Rivers and his high point total and the fact he isn’t currently injured but I still greatly prefer Andre Johnson over the long haul. Yes he won’t be playing until week 8, and he still has his bye coming up in week 11 but he is a player who can singlehandedly win you weeks. Also I don’t like rivers at all this year. They finally have a couple of decent running backs again and even when they are throwing he really hasn’t shown the knack for racking up big weeks like he did last year. Also you have to worry about Antonio Gates health for the rest of the year.

Potential Starters Received:

Alan gets upgrades at WR and RB (maybe) and now has a full blown QB controversy on his hands. DeAngelo is certainly better than the filth you currently have starting (Issac Redman or Earnest Graham) but he really shouldn’t be getting you very excited. He’s averaging 4 points a week and best case scenario he’s splitting carries 50/50 because Stewart will be getting most of the catches out of the backfield. Reggie Wayne is certainly a much bigger name than Eric Decker or Jacoby Jones but he hasn’t been his regular self without Manning tossing the pigskin to him. Also you will still have to start 2 out of the 3 of them every week unless you are planning the 2 TE route, Donaldson style. And I don’t know what you plan on doing with Big Ben know unless you are going to start guessing matchups or plan on flipping him to someone else when he gets healthy. I’ll give you Ryan Grant for him, he could actually start for your team.

Zacherman gets a top 5 WR and doesn’t lose too much with Rivers considering he has Rookie of the Year Cam Newton firmly entrenched at QB1. However, you are giving up a starting RB and Carter just doesn’t quite match up. I like getting Victor Cruz as a stopgap until Andre gets back but the quality of the players you are giving up, even if you do get the best player in the deal, makes me nervous.

Conclusions: The big problem I have with Zacherman on this deal is that he is selling very low on DeAngelo and Wayne. They may continue to suck but honestly at this point you are trading 30 cents on the dollar. I know you are in win now mode but unless one of them blows out their knee I can’t see their value getting much worse than it is now. If one of them were to explode this week I think you could have gotten more for them. I really don’t like any of the players Alan gets in this deal, but at least you get 3 players who can start and now you have a QB you can flip for another piece when someone’s starter gets hurt.

Rating:
Alan: B (I will turn this into an A- if you flip Big Ben or Rivers for a starting WR or RB before the trade deadline)
Zacherman: C- This looked a lot better before Andre was confirmed out for 3 weeks and one of those weeks isn’t even his bye week. You need to hope Addai goes down and the giants keep throwing the ball to Cruz. When you are in win now mode it’s not the best idea to trade for an injured guy.


Trade 2

Zacherman isn’t done yet! This “trade your whole team in one week” thing worked terribly for Gutman but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad strategy, at 1-3 your team is on the ropes, a shake-up can’t hurt.
Zacherman - Players to trade:
Stevan Ridley - Projected Points: 114
Santonio Holmes - Projected Points: 89

Donaldson - Players to trade:
Steve Smith - Projected Points: 100
Owen Daniels - Projected Points: 90

Yahoo Winner: Donaldson by a nose (203-190), I’ll call that even.

Best Player Received: Steve Smith has been reborn. Maybe he stole the talent of the other Steve Smith Space Jam style and combined it with his own but this guy is back to being a no question WR1.

Potential Starters Received: Gates isn’t supposed to return until week 7 so Zacherman gets an immediate upgrade there from the waiver wire and I like Smith better than Ridley or Holmes but he can’t take the place of both of them so you lose some depth there.

Donny you fiend! Just as Ben Tate appears to be becoming irrelevant you swipe another RB out of the shadows. I’m not sure how excited you can be about a New England Patriots running back but I know he will get you more excited than Ricky Williams or Jason Snelling. You also have ridiculous WR depth so losing Smith isn’t crushing since I really love A.J. Green and Holmes is great as a WR4. And we all know full well about your tight end depth already so I don’t need to talk about the loss of Daniels.

Conclusions: I like this trade for Zacherman a lot more than the first one. You are giving up long term value (Ridley) for short term value (Daniels) which is never something I’m a fan of but in your position it has to happen. Also you get a top shelf WR on top of it. If Daniels becomes a consistent starter for you and you can flip Gates somewhere around week 10 for an RB I think you may be someone to watch in the playoffs. Donny, you son of a bitch, I can only assume Ridley will rack up at least 1200 yards rushing in the final 12 weeks of the year based on your track record. Even if he doesn’t you gave up nothing for something so bravo.

Ratings:
Donaldson: A you gave up 2 players you didn’t necessarily need to start and got at least one starter in return. Nothing wrong with that.

Zacherman: B+ I like you getting rid of two players with unsure futures for two more consistent performers. If you can flip Daniels or Gates later on for something of value this trade gets even better for you, but in the short term the loss of 2 RBs in the two trades for only 1 in return will hurt.