Week 5 Rankings

Can’t really come up with an opening that wouldn’t lead to me going into a baseball rant, so I’m going right into it.

Bitching About Kicking
In past years in this space, I have argued that kickers should get negative points for misses, which would treat them like any other player. The argument against that is, from what I can tell, either A) Kickers don’t have control over blocked kicks, and B) I don’t care if we change their scoring or not. Well it’s been over two years and no change has come, so my crusade against kickers must continue.

This year I’m trying to prove that, in a game where we pride ourselves on skill, kickers take all skill out of the equation. In Nick’s critique of my analysis he was correct about some things and incorrect on a few as well. First, taking Kaeding out of the equation Week 1 is not fair, he was #1 going into the week and his getting hurt was unpredictable ahead of time. Anyone that started him received 0 points, so that’s how it should be for this study. In terms of outliers, it’s going to be a growing sample as the year progresses so the sample size will increase. And I do not follow Yahoo’s projected points, I think they’re as worthless as everyone else does. I follow ESPN’s “experts” rankings. While this is admittedly not perfect, those men are paid to provide fantasy advice, so they’re as much of a reliable source as you can find. And I’ll be using them all year, so at least it’s consistent.

The one area where Nick was absolutely correct is that I can’t just do this for kickers, I need to do it for every position! So I have done just that.
Pretty interesting results so far, though a couple of “outlier” performances were chosen at random (Gates being shut out by the Pats, Ravens D this past week). Here are the results by position so far:

QB – Experts 84 (Rivers, Rodgers, Brady, Brady) – Random 58 (Cassel, Rivers, Newton, Ryan)
Difference per Game of 6.5 points.
RB – Experts 57 (Peterson, Peterson, Peterson, Peterson) – Random 34 (Hillis, Gore, Lynch, D. Williams)
Difference per Game of 5.75 points.
WR – Experts 63 (Andre, Andre, Andre, Calvin) – Random 34 (Harvin, Sims-Walker, Denarius Moore, Wallace)
Difference per Game of 7.25 points.
TE – Experts 14 (Gates, Gates, Witten, Gronkowski) – Random 18 (Shiancoe, Finley, Chandler, Shiancoe)
Difference per Game of -1 point.
K – Experts 30 (Kaeding, Gostkowski, Rackers, Rackers) – Random 28 (Nugent, Hauschka, Suisham, Longwell)
Difference per Game of 0.5 points.
DEF – Experts 37 (Steelers, Steelers, Steelers, Packers) – Random 49 (Chiefs, Eagles, Bucs, Ravens)
Difference per Game of -3 points.

Even if we don’t change our kicker situation, I’m interested to see these results. This week the experts’ team is Rodgers, Foster, Calvin, Jimmy Graham, Rackers and the Lions. And the random team is Gabbert, McFadden, Holmes, Olsen, Carpenter, and the Jets.

Week 5 Rankings
1. Esco – CPP: 181.52 – Last Week: 1st
Calling the rest of the league irrelevant last week was probably warranted. That was impressive. But no one likes an undefeated team, just ask David Tyree. And while Yahoo/Donaldson might be target #1, you are not far behind. But seriously, if Mike Wallace putting up 7 is your worst performer, there’s not a chance you drop a game this season. This week you may have your first hiccup. Byes to future MVP Ray Rice, Ravens D and Daniel Thomas force his French cousin Pierre and Michael Bush into your lineup, and you get a rolling Weissbard team with Brady clean cut and ready for revenge. I’m not predicting a loss, but without your studs you’ll be as ripe for an upset as ever.

2. Autodraft – CPP: 141.50 – Last Week: 2nd
I said everything I had to in the lyrics to your Fantasy D-Name (now with no cocks!). I really wanted to perform the name, but I was on the road without my webcam-enabled computer. Also, my Dangerfield ©days are behind me, so my voice is not as good at hitting Cee Lo’s notes. Having said that, Yahoo deservedly beat me last week. Going forward, this is more of a Donaldson team. I like the moves you’ve made, going from a backfield of dog shit to Addai/Ridley is no small feat in our league. This week you face-off against Joseph, who continually ranks you at the top spot of the fake power rankings. I don’t know if his esteem for you works in your favor or not, but I do know that Calvin and Welker won’t combine for 42 every week (they do have byes) so your luck is bound to turn at some point.

3. Barnard – CPP: 134.61 – Last Week: 5th
I think you’re one of the only teams in this league that actually has the proper record. I look at your roster and see a solid but not spectacular QB, as good of an RB trio as you can get in our league, and shit for WRs. That spells a .500 record to me. I don’t think it spells playoffs for you, but on a given week when AP is roided up, you can matchup with anyone in this league. Luckily for you, you have Gutman this week, who anyone’s bench can matchup with every week.

4. Weissbard – CPP: 128.72 – Last Week: 9th
Why you have someone named Alfonso Smith on your team is beyond me. I keep forgetting to mention that in this space, then I see it when I check each team’s roster every morning and I laugh. If that is your ultimate motivation, then it’s succeeding. Your team is clearly built around Brady’s dominance (and no longer his hair), Nicks/VJax and their big play ability, and the hope that one or two of your (Mc)cluster-fuck of RBs finds the endzone. It’s not a bad strategy, particularly when Blount appears to be hitting his stride, but it might not be strong enough to get you to the promise land. I’m coming out with my annual Mock Trade column next week, and I already have yours figured out. I’m sure you’re on the edge of the phone book you put on your seat.

5. Joseph – CPP: 122.57 – Last Week: 11th
It might be panic time for you. Rodgers is playing out of his mind, he’s continuing to throw to Nelson, Aaron Hernandez is still out, and the Titans are winning, yet you’re 1-3. Granted, CJ has been about as productive as Eddie George this year, but considering everything else, your team has been in a pretty good spot so far. Pretty soon A-Her will be back, Rodgers will spread it even more, Ridley will surpass the Law Firm, and Marion Barber and/or Roy Williams will get cut. Your window for wins is closing fast, so I really hope you beat Donnie this week, for your sake and the league’s.

6. Kimmel – CPP: 117.68 – Last Week: 13th
You definitely win the award for “Team That Looks Terrible But Actually Has Some Talent From A Fantasy Perspective.” Not to mention that you lost Peyton and Britt, and your best remaining players from a name recognition perspective (Gore, Colston) haven’t even given you any production. While I think your outlook for the playoffs is bleak, I was not too excited about playing you this week. And on top of your sneaky-good roster, I have the karma of shitting on you for your lack of fantasy success waiting to bite me in the ass. I see a low-scoring close game on the horizon for us, and I think it will come down to whoever wins the Tolbert/Mathews battle for carries.

7. Billy – CPP: 115.82 – Last Week: 6th
I’m gonna start by apologizing. Last week I told you that Ryan Torain (among others) had no place on your bench due to having no carries all year. Oops. While I hope I am not your only source for fantasy advice like I am for Alan, I still feel bad about that one. Moving on, the fact that Reggie and Steve Slaton have a bye, and that actually hurts your team, is a bad sign. At least Arian showed up in full force, and I still believe that him and Brees can carry you to the playoffs, but you won’t get far deciding between LT and Reggie for your RB2 spot.

8. Kumpf – CPP: 107.83 – Last Week: 3rd
Looking at my roster, that is not a 4-0 team, so I can’t complain about where I’m at. It is, I think, a playoff team. The main issue I have with my team is that it will never put up those 130+ point weeks. I’ll linger around 90-100 every week, win two out of three games, grab the 4 seed and lose in the first round of the playoffs. And after my performance the last two years, I’m fine with that. Random note, what were the odds going into the year that I would look at Kimmel’s roster the week I’m playing him and say “Thank God Rex Grossman is on a bye.”

9. Alan – CPP: 107.18 – Last Week: 10th
I find it funny that you “lost” the trade with Gutman (though it was close), then Andre got hurt, and a week after that your team is in a much better place than it was before this whole process started. I’m sure you must cry yourself to sleep more than usual at night thinking about what might have been if Charles stayed healthy. Nevertheless, I like your team. It might not be a playoff team, but it’s respectable. And if you can possibly flip Rivers or Ben, then who knows where you might end up. What I’m trying to say is good job.

10. Ajay – CPP: 106.83 – Last Week: 4th
You really need to get rid of Stafford or Romo. I hate having to choose between Schaub and Fitzpatrick every week, but at least they have similar production. The highs are higher and the lows are lower for you. At least you don’t have to make the call this week, but I would look to make trade for an RB as soon as you can, because now you have Alan in the same position. And I think I speak for the rest of the league in saying that when I have two Indian men offering me a “great deal,” I assume I’m getting ripped off on lotto tickets.

11. Zacherman – CPP: 101.51 – Last Week: 12th
That’s what a good team does, plan for the future. You gave away a sure fire #1 QB in Rivers, stashed away Andre Johnson at 70 cents on the dollar, and went all-in on the Carolina Panthers. I only have a few problems with that. One, it’s been four weeks, Rivers will turn it around. Two, you’re 1-3 so sacrificing at least three weeks without Andre, and then having his bye, is a tough proposition. And three, it’s only a matter of time before teams figure out Cam, he stops throwing to Smith in triple coverage, Smith gets mad and breaks Cam’s arm in a locker room fight. And on that day I will be the one who said I told you so.

12. AGD – CPP: 89.53 – Last Week: 8th
Yikes the byes hit you hard this week. Not having Marshall or Hillis this week will be tough to work with, especially when you’re replacing them with Crabtree and David Nelson, who has as generic a name as our very own jersey-selling entrepreneur/scam artist in Albany. Luckily you face an equally fucked Billy this week, so your chances aren’t completely shot. I can easily see this team snatching a 6 seed in the last week of the season, then running train through the playoffs and losing in the finals a la 2009.

13. Bennett – CPP: 88.74 – Last Week: 14th
Sometimes I can’t tell if you’re serious. I’m not talking about the lineup you put out each week, your team name, or even your profession. But trying to sell us knock-off jerseys? And refusing to back down no matter how many people shit on you? I would love to know what goes on in your head. Also, I think you’re the only person in the world who started Forte last week and lost.

14. Gutman – CPP: 82.63 – Last Week: 7th
26 points from Pierre Garcon! That’s awesome!
I’ve decided that I will be starting your section with any positive I can find each week, and I’m sure there won’t be many of them. While Garcon’s TDs were relatively fluky, Painter sure was looking his way a lot. So much so that you decided he was worth a roster spot apparently. Don’t feel too bad, I was there last year, talking myself into Dan Orlovsky, but also don’t kid yourself that you have a chance in hell of making the playoffs. Those dreams are as dead as Steve Jobs (too soon?).