Trade Analysis 2

Back to our Trade Expert to go through three more recent trades. Here's Esco's thoughts:


Okay, after another flurry of trade activity its time to hand out some grades. Thankfully Zacherman isn’t involved in any of these trades so I don’t need to worry about any angry gchats about how every trade deserves an A+.
This first one is a little old since we’ve had a game since it happened but it’s quick and easy so here we go and again the “Projected Points” is what Yahoo! estimates for each player for the remainder of the season.

Kimmel (Players to Trade):
James Starks GB (RB) Projected Points: 75

Bennett (Players to Trade):
Mike Williams TB (WR) Projected Points: 63

Yahoo Winner: Bennett narrowly edges Kimmel here. Also important to note that both players still have their byes coming up so no one gets a boost there.

Best Player Involved: Ugh, this is really a wash. Both guys came into the year with lots of fantasy pundits touting their upside after promising regular seasons (Williams) and playoffs (Starks) last year. Neither has gotten anywhere near the levels of production expected so far. I’m going to give this to Mike Williams and Kimmel for one reason. Green Bay clearly wants Starks to take control of the starting job in Green Bay and he has had every opportunity imaginable already to do that, his upside is pretty much zero. At least with Williams you can hope Josh Freeman can get back to last year’s level of play and Williams all of a sudden becomes a solid WR2.

Potential Starters Received: You both basically traded a flex for a flex. This makes Bennett pretty weak at wide receiver since you will now have to start the corpse of Hines Ward or Steve Breaston for the rest of the year but it doesn’t affect the bottom line of either team that much.

Conclusions: No one got screwed here, and no one did any screwing. This was a low risk low reward move. Maybe Bennett was sick of having Williams for a year and a half now, maybe Kimmel thinks Starks is about to blow up. Either way I’m giving you both a B. Nothing outstanding, nothing truly creative, not surprising at all that Bennett was involved with this.

Okay on to the bigger trades of this week

Kimmel (Players to Trade):
Frank Gore SF (RB) Projected Points: 107

Ajay (Players to Trade)
Willis McGahee Den (RB) Projected Points: 113
Matt Stafford Det (QB) Projected Points: 175

Also Kimmel is dropping Marcedes Lewis but the man once traded for a chicken wing has really fallen off since he signed his new 35 million dollar deal at the beginning of the year so not a huge loss.

Yahoo Winner: I don’t know what idiot at Yahoo thinks McGahee is more valuable for the rest of the year than Gore but Kimmel wins in a landslide here 288-107. Gore does have his bye this week while McGahee is already past his but I don’t think that is enough to make Yahoo’s projections make sense.

Best Player Involved: This is an easy one for me. Gore showed against the Lions that he is still a top back and the 49ers are going to ride him until his legs fall off. Probably not a good player to go for next year in the draft but for now he is a must start back every week. All 3 players involved here carry some injury risk with their pasts so that evens out here. Stafford is good but he is not nearly on the same level fantasy wise as Gore just yet.

Potential Starters Received: Another obvious one. All 3 players involved here are instant starters for their new teams. Kimmel currently has zero QBs on his team and before that he had only Andy Dalton and Sexy Rexy so this is a huge upgrade for him. Both teams are very thin at running back so I see no point in the future where both running backs aren’t starting for their team.

Conclusions: Both of these teams are on the cusp of the playoffs but I would call neither a lock to make it with their current teams. Something needed to happen to mix it up and this certainly qualifies. Stafford was expendable for Ajay just like Rivers was for Zacherman last week and Big Ben was for Alan this week so he basically got an upgrade at RB for nothing. I’m worried McGahee may eventually lose his job to Moreno as he returns to health but Kimmel already has Knowshon so that shouldn’t be a concern for him. Ajay’s starting lineup becomes tremendously strong with this new addition and really your only concern now is injury because you have no depth but as long as that doesn’t happen I could see you being favored in most of your matchups here on out. Also just for thought, if I had to guess the over/unders on how many games each of very injury prone players would make it through this year:
McGahee: 14
Gore: 13
Stafford: 12

No one has missed a game yet so we will see how this plays out as the season progresses.

Rating:
Ajay: A- The only reason this isn’t an A is because now you have to scrounge on the waiver wire for a QB and the odds of Romo making it through the year intact are about the same as Stafford’s so that definitely should be a concern for you. Otherwise this trade really has no downside, your starting lineup is now definitely playoff worthy, I’m glad I already played you.
Kimmel: A If I were to grade your overall team it’s not nearly as strong or deep as Ajay’s but this trade does a lot more for you than it does for him. I think Ajay had better than 50% odds of making the playoffs before this; yours were maybe 15%. This takes your team from the bottom to a fighting chance. Usually 7-6 is the cutoff for the playoffs in our league so if you were to lose to Donny this week your fate may have been sealed and with the team you had before this I think you would have lost. Now you have a real chance to sneak in especially with all the teams currently hovering around 3-3 and 2-4.

Alan (Players to Trade):
Ben Roethlisberger Pit (QB) Projected Points: 163

Esco (Players to Trade):
Malcom Floyd SD (WR) Projected Points: 55
Pierre Thomas NO (RB) Projected Points: 63

Yahoo Winner: Big Ben outperforms Floyd and Thomas 163-118. Again I’m not really sure what the hell Yahoo is smoking here. Floyd is far far more valuable than Thomas is and I can’t understand how Yahoo doesn’t understand this.

Conclusions: I’m not going to go into full detail with a trade I am directly involved in but here are my thoughts. This makes Alan’s previous trade a definite A. He got value for his 2nd QB just like others did before. I think I overpaid slightly for Big Ben but I also have seen Vick get abused repeatedly every week and I can’t rely on Sam Bradford for anything so I really needed a quality backup. I’m not sure if I would start Floyd over Alan’s current WR2 Reggie Wayne but he certainly deserves constant consideration for your flex spot every week and in case the Saints have a mass of injuries Thomas gets a big boost in value.

Still a full month away from the trade deadline so plenty of time to make moves if you haven’t already, action is always better than inaction. Ask Chris Long if you don’t believe me.