Week 8 Recap

We're about to enter the home stretch of the season, and things are finally rounding into shape. There are three teams with over 900 points, while the rest of the league other than Levine is under 800, and Esco/BAM sit under 700. The next five weeks will be all about sorting out the middle class and determining who gets the last 2-3 playoff spots.

Trade Grade 7
Barnard receives Dion Lewis
Belfer receives Jared Goff
Well this was the most obvious trade of the year. Barnard had been sitting on a tough QB decision each week, and continues to have a hilarious roster of fat RBs and white WRs. This lets him start his boyfriend without guilt, and also brings up a new decision between Lewis and Henry, which I'm sure he will pick wrong each week. I couldn't be happier. As for Belf, he continues to build a seriously strong team. More on that below.
Barnard Grade: B-
Belfer Grade: A-

Playoff Odds

After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams make the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams make the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams make the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8

After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams make the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9

We're guaranteed to see another record fall, as the winner of Weissbard/Zacherman will be our first 8-1 team in the ESPN era, but there will be plenty of time to talk about that later. This section is all about that absurd 70% gap between 6-3 both 5-4 and 4-5. We have five teams at 4-4, and history tells us that win or lose, it likely doesn't make that much of a difference this week. But for our 5-3 teams, a win and a loss has historically been huge. With my team already leading the division, and projected for an absurd 117 points by ESPN this week against lowly BAM, that leaves Gutman as the team with the most to gain or lose. He faces off with Reap who, along with Alan, are clinging to relevance above the 3-6 death line.

Team of the Week - Belfer
With a whopping three teams within two points of each other in the 130s, I'm giving this to the team that remade itself on the fly, and has renewed playoff hope. Now sitting at .500, as well as 5th in scoring, Belf's team is now pretty deep, and after his trades, he has star power as well. As one of the current top three teams, I would not like to see this team in the playoffs.

Best Lineup Move of the Week - N/A
Only one close matchup this week, and it was won by a BAM team that is already eliminated.

Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Esco starting Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin over Larry Fitzgerald
A coin flip decision, but the old man would have kept Esco's seasons alive. Instead he's nursing a 12-point lead over BAM for Shot Spot.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - Weissbard vs. Zacherman
I feel like one of these two teams has been in this spot almost every week, but they're both 7-1 and score a lot of points, so what do you want from me? In addition to the battle for elusive 8-1, the winner here also takes the lead in their division, which could end up mattering if they both have late-season swoons. On the flip side, the loser is likely to only be a game up on me and/or Gutman, which makes the bye no sure thing. Those are the stakes.

As for the actual matchup, it might not end up being as close as we all would like. Bye weeks are impacting both rosters, but Weiss losing Saquon and Tate dwarf Zacherman losing Boyd, Ebron and the Jags D. The active rosters don't look much better for Weissbard, as his best matchup is Sammy in Cleveland, but that means Z gets Mahomes scoring even more in The Land. Thursday Night Football is Weissbard's best shot at a win, as 30+ points from Raheem Mostert and Jared Cook...sorry I couldn't even make it through that sentence. Say hello to our new leader.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 5-3

Gambling Corner - Week of 10/22

NFL Bets
Redskins (-1) vs. Falcons - Loss
Vikings (-4) vs. Lions - Win
Panthers (-6) vs. Bucs - Win
Broncos (Pick) vs. Texans - Loss
Patriots (-6) vs. Packers - Win
Last Week: 2-2
2018 Record: 22-17-4 (+2.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NFL Prop Bet Check-in
The Good
Packers under 10 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
The Bad
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Texans to win the Super Bowl
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving (currently 21st, 373 yards behind leader)
The Ugly
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Falcons to win the Super Bowl
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing (LOL)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing (LOL)

NCAA Football Bets
West Virginia (+2) at Texas - Win
Iowa (+3) at Purdue - Win
Penn State (+11) at Michigan - Loss
LSU (+15) vs. Alabama - Loss
Texas Tech (+14) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Last Week: 3-3
2018 Record: 29-37-2 (-12.17 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

I also bet on Ohio State to win it all at +1200.

NBA Bets
Nets (+2) at Knicks - Loss
T-Wolves (+2) vs. Lakers - Win
Celtics (-7) vs. Pistons - Loss
Lakers (-6) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Nets (+4.5) vs. Rockets - Loss
Thunder (+3) at Wizards - Win
Jazz (-6) vs. Grizzlies - Loss
Pacers (+3) vs. Celtics - Win
Nets (+4) vs. 76ers - Win
Last Week: 5-2
2018-2019 Record: 13-10 (+1.10 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (+1) at Everton - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Watford - Win
Burnley (+1) at West Ham - Loss
Arsenal (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
Tottenham (Pick) at Wolves - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-15-4 (-5.76 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-9 (-1.70 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-6-2 (+1.59 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.67 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-0
Final 2018 Record: 33-44 (-4.39 units)
Updated Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)