Week 10 Recap

Week 10 was the week of upsets. Instead of a world where six teams were 6-4, we have half that number, and while Barnard was a fringe playoff contender at best, his hopes were likely dashed as well. There are still a lot of playoff races to look at, but first lets review the trade deadline fun.

Trade Grade 9
Alan receives Emmanuel Sanders
Kumpf receives A.J. Green
Alan needs to make up two games on Marco to win the division, his only real shot at the playoffs, so a lame duck Green on his bench was accomplishing nothing. He now gets WR11 on the season (who's outscoring Green on a per-game basis) to fuel his playoff push. On my end, it's simply about raising my team's ceiling on a weekly basis. Green gets a nice Oakland/Cleveland back-to-back in Weeks 15-16, but that would require me making it that far, so it's a gamble.
Alan Grade: A
Kumpf Grade: B

Trade Grade 10
Ajay receives Kerryon Johnson and Panthers D/ST
Gutman receives Sony Michel and Chargers D/ST
Ajay is in desperation mode, so a bye week for Sony is a non-starter. If I was him, I would have waived the white flag and geared up for a Rivalry Week win over Z with my strongest team possible. But I have to respect the never-say-die mentality. As for Gutman, his playoff spot is now in a lot more danger than it was last week, so Sony's bye becomes a big problem with Weissbard on the schedule this week. While Gutman got the better end of the deal, the timing of this trade isn't great for him.
Ajay Grade: C+
Gutman Grade: C+

Trade Grade 11
Barnard receives Bitch Trubisky and Jordan Reed
Reap receives Greg Olsen
Barnard's comically poor planning left him desperate at QB (as well as WR), so a trade was better than scrounging the waiver wire I guess. The downgrade from Olsen to Reed is significant, but Olsen's not the reliable weekly threat he used to be. For Reap, this is a clear raising of his team's floor, though it may not affect his ceiling too much. All in all this trade probably doesn't make an impact on the outcome of the league.
Barnard Grade: C
Reap Grade: B

Trade Grade 12
Levine receives Sammy Watkins
Weissbard receives Rashaad Penny
A true buzzer beating trade! On the surface, I like Watkins more than Penny, but in our league, an RB with a chance at starting is always valuable. Weissbard has been looking for a third RB option all year, and while Penny is in incredibly crowded backfield, he's still a first round pick who the team has an incentive to play down the stretch. Levine had the rare luxury of four startable RBs, but his WR situtation is "only" two-deep in reliable starters. Watkins is by no means reliable, but he does give the defending champ more options as he prepares to defend his chef's coat. I like the trade for both teams, and the last minute nature of the trade pushes it over the top.
Levine Grade: A
Weissbard Grade: A-

Now let's take a look at each of the playoff races:

#1 Seed (Bye and Regular Season Prize)
Favorite: Zacherman
In The Hunt: Kumpf, Weissbard

#2 Seed (Bye)
Favorite: Kumpf
In The Hunt, Weissbard, Belfer

Levine Division Champ
Favorite: Kumpf
In The Hunt: Bennett, Levine

The Chosen People Division Champ
Favorite: Zacherman
In The Hunt: Weissbard, Belfer

Chocolate Starfish Division Champ
Favorite: Marco
In The Hunt: Reap, Alan

Remaining Playoff Teams
Favorites: Weissbard, Belfer
In The Hunt: Bennett, Gutman, Levine

#6 Seed (NiJo Rule)
Favorite: Levine
In The Hunt: Bennett, Gutman

With three weeks left in the season, literally nothing has been clinched, and there's a pretty fun race for each seed. A looming Kumpf/Z matchup could well determine the #1 seed, with the loser in danger of falling out of the bye entirely. Weissbard and a rolling Belfer team can gain ground, and are well-positioned for the playoffs regardless. Marco's division is a wasteland, but he is the clear favorite to advance there over Alan and Reap. And the NiJo spot is a fun three-team race with Levine, Bennett, and Gutman. You all know how much I like our current playoff qualification format, but with 10 teams legitimately alive heading into Week 11, who doesn't like this?

Playoff Odds

After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams make the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams make the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10

After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams make the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams make the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams make the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/10 of 3-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11

History means less now that the playoff picture is coming into focus, but this is a clearly important week for the 6-4 teams. Me and Belfer square off, and Gutman faces Weissbard, leaving Bennett in the potential driver's seat for the #4 seed with a pretty harmless Barnard matchup.

On the flip side, the Shot Spot appears to be relatively locked up for BAM unfortunately. They're a game back of Ajay and Esco, and their point total means they would need to make up two games to avoid taking the shots again.

The Christmas Card spot is currently Marco's to lose, with his 59.7 score in Week 7 as the only score in the 50s this year. I'm rooting for him to hold onto that spot, as the ceiling would likely be pretty high on that card. BAM, did I really take those pictures for nothing?

Team of the Week - Bennett
The team that allegedly never gets picked in the Matchup of the Week responded with a season-saving destruction of his landlord. Starting with a big TNF from his Steelers, and ending with Ertz's enormous MNF performance, Bennett dominated from wire-to-wire. I probably put him last among playoff contenders based solely on his absolute lack of reliable RBs, but he's hanging around much longer than expected.

Best Lineup Move of the Week - N/A
No great lineup decisions, though Reap getting a goose egg from Taylor Gabriel and still beating Barnard comes close to qualifying based on spite.

Worst Lineup Moves of the Week - Barnard starting Dion Lewis over Derrick Henry and Marco starting CJ Uzomah over Anthony Miller
Neither of these moves were obvious decisions (though Barnard should have known Henry would fuck him twice against the Pats), but both had potentially colossal results. Barnard is now effectively eliminated barring a miracle, while Marco blew the chance at a two-game division lead. I still would pick Marco to win his division, but it's no longer a foregone conclusion.

Biggest Matchups of the Week - Belfer vs. Kumpf, Gutman vs. Weissbard, and Marco vs. Zacherman
Matchups??? Plural??? That's right. It's the home stretch and we have three enormous matchups kicking off the final playoff push. The results of these matchups could result in the following scenarios:

Zacherman
Best Case: Two games up for the #1 seed
Worst Case: #3 seed (admittedly a stretch)

Kumpf
Best Case: #1 seed
Worst Case: #3 seed

Weissbard
Best Case: #1 seed (stretch)
Worst Case: #5 seed (stretch)

Belfer
Best Case: #3 seed (stretch)
Worst Case: #8 seed

Gutman
Best Case: #4 seed
Worst Case: #8 seed

Marco
Best Case: #4 seed, two games up in the division
Worst Case: #9 seed, tied for the division

My picks have perfectly matched the Texans so far this year, and with Houston on a bye last week and thus ineligible to win a game, I was unable to get the win either. Well I'm tripling down this week, and with Houston playing the Skins, I can see this going either way.

Belfer/Kumpf: Lots of tough matchups with Belf's Steelers in Jacksonville and my squad looking ahead to the playoffs and taking on the Bears, Chargers and Titans. Belf's range of outcomes is the largest in this group, so I think desperation works in his favor.
Pick: Belfer

Gutman/Weissbard: Weiss has the least to gain/lose this week, as he's in a unique spot with his point total. However, he loses his Rams next week, so there's an increased sense of urgency here. Gutman traded for a guy on a bye week, and it looks like he could be on the verge of a collapse. This one is easy.
Pick: Weissbard

Marco/Zacherman: For Marco to have a shot in this one, he probably needs to be up 60 heading into MNF. His squad is potentially whole for the first time this year, which is exciting, but Captain Kirk and Dalvin playing in Chicago on SNF doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence. Z's RBs are in shambles, but it probably won't matter.
Pick: Zacherman

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 6-4

Gambling Corner - Week of 11/12

NFL Bets
Seahawks (-3) vs. Packers - Push
Redskins (+3) vs. Texans - Win
Giants (-1) vs. Bucs - Win
Chargers (-7) vs. Broncos - Loss
Chiefs (+4) at Rams - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2018 Record: 28-19-5 (+4.78 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
TCU (+2) at Baylor - Win
Utah (-7) at Colorado - Win
USC (-3) at UCLA - Loss
Boston College (-1) at Florida State - Loss
Wisconsin (+5) at Purdue - Win
Mississippi (+3) at Vanderbilt - Loss
Washington State (-9) vs. Arizona - Win
Last Week: 3-3
2018 Record: 36-43-2 (-12.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Kings (+4.5) vs. Spurs - Win
Magic (+6) vs. 76ers - Win
Raptors (-8) vs. Pistons - Loss
Warriors (+4.5) at Rockets - Loss
Nuggets (-13) vs. Hawks - Win
Clippers (+4) vs. Spurs - Win
Celtics (-2) vs. Raptors - Win
Celtics (-4) vs. Jazz - Loss
Warriors (+4.5) at Spurs - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2018-19 Record: 20-18 (-1.14 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Wofford - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Record: 2-0 (+1.82 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 2-0-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 15-15-5 (-4.12 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-2.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-7-3 (+3.43 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 2-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-6 (-4.38 units)