Week 11 of the NFL season ended with an epic clash of the titans that could double as a Super Bowl preview. Week 12 in FALAFEL has the battle for the #1 seed that could double as a Stevens Bowl preview. Before we get there, we have a lot of playoff ramifications to discuss, starting with the state of the league if the season ended today:
#1 Seed (Bye): Zacherman - Best Record/Chosen People Division Winner
#2 Seed (Bye): Kumpf - 2nd Best Record (Points Scored Tiebreaker)/Levine Division Winner
#3 Seed: Weissbard - 3rd Best Record
#4 Seed: Levine - 4th Best Record (Points Scored Tiebreaker)
#5 Seed: Marco - Chocolate Starfish Division Winner
#6 Seed: Belfer - Most Points of Remaining Teams
Gutman and Bennett are currently on the outside looking in for the #4 seed, while Ajay, Reap and Alan are somehow still alive to take the Chocolate Starfish division.
Playoff Odds
After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams make the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams make the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams make the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/10 of 3-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11
After Week 12:
We have never had a team start 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2
100% (5/5) of 9-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 8-4 teams make the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 7-5 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 6-6 teams make the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 5-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-9 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-10, 1-11, or 12-0
Again, specific playoff races matter more than history here, but BAM has a chance at being our first 2-10 in the ESPN era. BAM can also clinch the shot spot with a loss, so the drama at the bottom of the league might be over with a week to spare.
Alan had a statement week and claimed the Hot Potato by almost 10 points. With bye weeks mostly over, our first two-time champ is overwhelmingly likely to be our first two-time Hot Potato. I wouldn't fault him in waiting to see BAM (or just Billy's) card before sending his, but it will be hard to top his original card.
Team of the Week - Zacherman
A few teams have a case for this spot (including my third 140 point week this season), but Z gets the spot because of how his team looks moving forward. The studs are obviously amazing, but his RB situation looked tenuous at best. Enter Josh Adams, who looks primed to complement James White as a more than acceptable duo entering the playoffs. Doug Baldwin showing signs of life is another encouraging sign for a team that can suffer an injury or two and still be terrifying.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - N/A
Another week without any strokes of genius from this league.
Worst Lineup Moves of the Week - Belfer starting Jalen Richard over Tre'Quan Smith and Bennett starting Devin Funchess over Christian Kirk
Rookie receivers are tough this time of year, but Week 11 was a banner week for them. DJ Moore lit the world on fire, while Kirk and Quan had big days as well. Unfortunately for Belfer and Bennett, they cost themselves key matchups because they went conservative. Belfer is likely to get at least the #6 seed, but this one move likely cost Bennett the playoffs.
Biggest Matchups of the Week - Kumpf vs. Zacherman and Belfer vs. Levine
Last week the Texans won, but only due to a last second missed FG, so it's basically partial credit. In this space, I went 2/3, which still relatively aligns with their performance. I'm keeping the multi-matchup thing going this week, because the stakes are once again high:
Kumpf
Best Case: #1 seed with a 30+ point lead over 2nd, and a bye essentially clinched
Worst Case: #3 seed
Zacherman
Best Case: Clinches #1 seed, Regular Season prize and a bye
Worst Case: Falls to #3 seed if he loses and Weissbard outscores him by 80
There's more pressure on me here because Z gets Ajay in Rivalry Week while I take on a more formidable Levine team. I also have the bye advantage, with Z losing his guaranteed 50 from Mahomes and Tyreek, while I lose Kelce's 15-20. I have slightly better matchups, especially if A.J. Green plays and takes targets from Boyd, but I really hate Nuk getting last licks on MNF. If I get a healthy Green and Zeke/Bears combine for 50 on Turkey Day, I think I'm in good shape. But I think it's more likely that Green sits and the Jags D score 3 TDs against the Bills.
Pick: Zacherman
Belfer
Best Case: #4 seed with a playoff seed essentially clinched
Worst Case: #7 seed with a tenuous hold on the NiJo Rule spot
Levine
Best Case: #4 seed with a playoff seed essentially clinched
Worst Case: #7 seed with a tenuous hold on the NiJo Rule spot
This will be a fun one. These two teams are both virtual playoff locks due to their point totals, but this game still matters. A win puts them in the driver's seat for the #4 seed and a first round matchup with the winner of the lowly Chocolate Starfish division. A loss means the #6 seed and a matchup with Z/Kumpf/Weissbard. This matchup will be mostly decided on Thanksgiving, with a whopping 7 players going. If Belfer can hold serve heading into Sunday, the game will be decided by how Pittsburgh plays in Denver. But I think this one could end up being a blowout before we finish our pumpkin pie.
Pick: Levine
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 8-5
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/19
NFL Bets
Falcons (+13) at Saints - Loss
Bengals (-3) vs. Browns - Loss
Jets (+10) vs. Patriots - Loss
Ravens (-11) vs. Raiders - Win
Titans (+7) at Texans
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018 Record: 29-22-5 (+3.78 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Houston (+7) at Memphis - Loss
Iowa (-9) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Ohio State (+5) vs. Michigan - Win
Texas Tech (+7) vs. Baylor (Neutral Site) - Loss
Syracuse (+7) at Boston College - Win
NC State (-7) at North Carolina - Loss
Stanford (-6) at UCLA - Win
Colorado (+13) at California - Win
Kansas State (+14) at Iowa State - Win
Utah (-13) vs. BYU - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2018 Record: 41-48-2 (-13.01 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Hornets (+4.5) vs. Celtics - Win
Celtics (-12.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Nets (+3.5) vs. T-Wolves - Loss
Knicks (+7.5) vs. Pelicans - Win
Nuggets (-7.5) vs. Magic - Win
Thunders (-1.5) vs. Nuggets - Loss
Mavericks (+4.5) vs. Celtics - Win
Grizzlies (-6.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Last Week: 5-4
2018-19 Record: 24-22 (-1.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NCAA Basketball Bets
Auburn (-9) vs. Xavier (Neutral Site) - Push
San Diego State (+3) vs. Xavier (Neutral Site) - Win
St. John's (-6.5) vs. VCU (Neutral Site) - Loss
Auburn (+11) vs. Duke (Neutral Site) - Win
Creighton (+5.5) vs. Clemson (Neutral Site) - Win
North Carolina (-7) vs. Texas (Neutral Site) - Loss
Michigan State (-6) vs. UCLA (Neutral Site - Win
DePaul (+7) at Notre Dame - Loss
Houston (+3) at BYU - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Record: 7-3-1 (+2.78 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
Tottenham (Pick) vs. Chelsea - Win
Huddersfield (+1) at Wolves - Win
Last Week: 2-0-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-15-5 (-1.28 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-2.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-7-3 (+3.43 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 2-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-6 (-4.38 units)
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