Lots to get through this week, so let's jump right in.
Playoff Odds
After Week 12:
We have never had a team start 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2
100% (5/5) of 9-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 8-4 teams make the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 7-5 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 6-6 teams make the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 5-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-9 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-10, 1-11, or 12-0
After Week 13:
We have never had a team start 13-0, 12-1, or 11-2
100% (2/2) of 10-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 9-4 teams make the playoffs
89% (8/9) of 8-5 teams make the playoffs
55% (6/11) of 7-6 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 6-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 5-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 4-9 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 3-10 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-11, 1-12, or 0-13
A few potential firsts for us this year. Zacherman has a chance to be the first 11-2 team in the modern era, while BAM has the opposite chance at being the first 2-11 team. Additionally, we're guaranteed to have at best a 6-7 team make the playoffs (our second ever), with the potential for our first 5-8 team. Absolutely great division drafting by Marco.
Alan still holds the Hot Potato with 51.3 points.
Now on to the good stuff...
Playoff Scenarios
If the playoffs started today, the bracket would be:
1. Zacherman (Bye) - Best Record and Chosen People Division Winner
2. Kumpf (Bye) - 2nd Best Record and Levine Division Winner
3. Weissbard - 3rd Best Record
4. Levine - 4th Best Record
5. Marco - Chocolate Starfish Division Winner
6. Belfer - Most Points of Remaining Teams
Now a team-by-team look at what could happen in Week 13, in order of record, as well as which teams everyone should root for (besides themselves obviously) and against. For these purposes, I'm going to assume that no team can make up more than 50 points on any other team. I'm also assuming that it's preferable to get the best seed possible, however the 4 seed is likely preferable to the 3 seed as they get to face the Chocolate Starfish division winner instead of the NiJo Rule winner.
1. Zacherman
Already clinched the #1 seed, bye, and regular season prize. Week 13 only matters for him to win his Rivalry Week matchup with Ajay and get fifty more dollars. HOWEVER, if Z thinks Ajay is a weaker team than Marco/Alan/Reap, he could throw the matchup to boost Ajay's chances. If the Chocolate Starfish division winner somehow beats me, Weissbard, or Levine in the first round, they would face Z in the semi-finals. Between that and $50, I think we all know which side Z will choose.
Needs to root for: Injuries to his competitors?
2. Kumpf
Already clinched the playoffs. Can clinch a bye by beating Levine, or by losing and Weissbard also losing. Given my point total, I can't fall below 3rd place.
Needs to root for: Esco
Needs to root against: Weissbard
3. Weissbard
Already clinched the playoffs. Can clinch a bye by beating Esco and Kumpf losing. If he loses, Weissbard can only fall to 4th if Levine beats Kumpf and outscores Weissbard by 34.9.
Needs to root for: Levine, but not too much.
Needs to root against: Kumpf
Now it gets interesting. Remember that the 5 seed is reserved for the Chocolate Starfish Division winner.
4. Levine
Can end up anywhere from 3rd to out of the playoffs
3 seed: Levine wins, Weissbard loses, and Levine outscores Weissbard by 34.9.
4 seed: Levine wins, Weissbard loses, and Levine doesn't outscore Weissbard by 34.9 OR Levine loses, Bennett loses, and Belfer doesn't outscore Levine by 27.4.
6 seed: Levine loses, Bennett wins, and Belfer doesn't outscore Levine by 27.4.
Out of the playoffs: Levine loses, Bennett wins, and Belfer outscores Levine by 27.4
Needs to root for: BAM, Esco
Needs to root against: Belfer, Bennett, Weissbard
5. Bennett
Can end up anywhere from 4th to out of the playoffs
4 seed: Bennett wins, Levine loses.
6 seed: Levine wins and Bennett outscores Belfer by 34.3.
Out of the playoffs: Levine wins and Bennett doesn't outscore Belfer by 34.3
Needs to root for: Kumpf
Needs to root against: Belfer, Levine
6. Belfer
Can end up anywhere for 4th to out of the playoffs
4 seed: Levine loses, Bennett loses, Belfer outscores Levine by 27.4, and Bennett doesn't outscore Belfer by 34.3
6 seed: Levine wins and Bennett doesn't outscore Belfer by 34.3 OR Levine loses, Bennett wins, and Belfer outscores Levine by 27.4.
Out of the playoffs: Levine loses, Bennett wins and Belfer doesn't outscore Levine by 27.4 OR Levine wins and Bennett outscores Belfer by 34.3
Needs to root for: BAM
Needs to root against: Bennett
It's complicated: Levine
7. Gutman
Can only make the playoffs as the 6th seed
6 seed: Gutman wins, Bennett loses, and Gutman outscores Bennett by 25.1
Out of the playoffs: Gutman loses OR Gutman wins and Bennett wins OR Gutman wins, Bennett loses, and Gutman doesn't outscore Bennett by 25.1
Needs to root for: BAM
Needs to root against: Bennett
8. Barnard
Can't make the playoffs without outscoring Bennett by over 50. If we're considering that possible, his situation is the same as Gutman, just with an additional 26.7 points necessary. He would also need to outscore Gutman by 26.7, and without Fournette, I don't see that happening.
Now we get to the Chocolate Starfish Division Championship
9. Marco
Can only make the playoffs as the 5th seed
5 seed:. Marco wins OR Marco, Ajay, Alan and Reap all lose
Out of the playoffs: Marco loses, and Ajay, Alan, or Reap wins
Needs to root for: Zacherman, Barnard, Belfer
Needs to root against: Ajay, Alan, Reap
10. Ajay
Can only make the playoffs as the 5th seed
5 seed: Ajay wins, Marco loses, Alan doesn't win and outscore Ajay by 43.5, and Reap doesn't win and outscore Ajay by 47.1
Out of playoffs: Ajay loses OR Marco wins OR Ajay wins, Marco loses, and Alan wins and outscores Ajay by 43.5 and/or Reap wins and outscores Ajay by 47.1
Needs to root for: Gutman, Barnard, Belfer
Needs to root against: Marco, Alan, Reap
11. Alan
Can only make the playoffs as the 5th seed
5 seed: Alan wins, Marco loses, Ajay either loses or wins and gets outscored by Alan by 43.5, Reap either loses or wins and doesn't outscore Alan by 3.6
Out of playoffs: Alan loses OR Marco wins OR Alan wins, Marco loses, Ajay wins and doesn't get outscored by Alan by 43.5 and/or Reap wins and outscores Alan by 3.6
Needs to root for: Gutman, Belfer, Zacherman
Needs to root against: Marco, Reap, Ajay
12. Reap
Can only make the playoffs as the 5th seed
5 seed: Reap wins, Marco loses, Ajay either loses or wins and gets outscored by Reap by 47.1, Alan either loses or wins and gets outscored by Reap by 3.6
Out of playoffs: Reap loses OR Marco wins OR Reap wins, Marco loses, Ajay wins and doesn't get outscored by Reap by 47.1 and/or Alan wins and doesn't get outscored by Reap by 3.6
Needs to root for: Gutman, Barnard, Zacherman
Needs to root against: Marco, Alan, Ajay
13. Esco
Literally the least interesting team in the league. Can't make the playoffs, and can't get the Shot Spot. All he can do is win $50 by beating Weissbard and making sure he doesn't get the bye.
14. BAM
Playing for $50 and spite on Bennett, as well as avoiding the only 2-11 season in the ESPN era.
Biggest Matchups of the Week - All Of Them
Quick picks for each Rivalry Week matchup.
Kumpf vs. Levine
Chris Thompson's much anticipated return may cut into AP's workload enough to avoid another MNF collapse for my team. However, AJ Green being injured and/or playing with Jeff Driskel lowers my ceiling enough to make it close. Matchups still are in my favor, and I have to beat Levine at some point right?
Pick: Kumpf
Esco vs. Weissbard
Weissbard's wasteland at receiver should at least open the door for an Esco team that hilariously looks as good as it had all season. The Bears may keep Saquon in check as well, so if Brandin Cooks can steal a TD or two from Gurley and Woods, I actually like Esco's chances. Is this the beginning of the end for Fireball Dan?
Pick: Esco
BAM vs. Bennett
The Eagles playing on MNF means this won't be decided until the last minute. Like Esco, I actually don't mind BAM's team right now, especially against Bennett's Jekyll and Hyde squad. BAM has solid matchups too, but I can't in good conscience pick a team with double digit losses.
Pick: Bennett
Alan vs. Barnard
There's a chance that Alan trading for Emmanuel Sanders single handedly leads him to the playoffs. There's also a chance that the highlight of Barnard's season will be eliminating Alan from the playoffs and using his $50 for a lap dance in front of Alan during next year's draft weekend, as the Muffman calls the stripper a bitch for putting so much weight on Rivalry Week.
Pick: Barnard
Belfer vs. Reap
Per usual, the Steelers will dictate things for Belfer, and I can't say I like the matchup against the Chargers. Combine that with Reap getting Ekeler as an RB1 and this week has the potential to be a nightmare for Belfer.
Pick: Reap
Gutman vs. Marco
The saddest matchup of the weekend could somehow end up with two playoff teams. TNF is enormous for these teams, and the New Orleans scoring distribution will likely decide the matchup. Dallas has been surprisingly solid at defending the pass, and while I don't think that will slow down Brees and Co. too much, it could easily mean that Kamara eliminates Mara.
Pick: Marco
Ajay vs. Zacherman
Z starts his unprecedented double bye week with his Chiefs feasting on Oakland, which could be enough to outscore Ajay on their own. Ajay has solid matchups across the board, but the Jags have been primed for a bounce back for weeks, and that would be poor timing for Luck and Hilton. Ajay's late season run has been admirable, but if Z plays his A-Squad, it will fall short.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 10-5
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/26
NFL Bets
Ravens (+1) at Falcons - Win
Bucs (+4) vs. Panthers - Win
Texans (-6) vs. Browns - Win
Seahawks (-10) vs. 49ers - Win
Redskins (+6) at Eagles - Loss
Last Week: 1-3
2018 Record: 33-23-5 (+5.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NFL Prop Check-In
Already Won
Packers under 10 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Likely Wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
TBD
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
Texans to win the Super Bowl
Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
Bears to win the NFC
Likely Losses
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Falcons to win the Super Bowl
Panthers to win the NFC
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving yards (currently 14th, 431 yards behind leader)
Already Lost
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing yards
NCAA Football Bets
Utah (+6) vs. Washington (Neutral Site) - Loss
Oklahoma (-8) vs. Texas (Neutral Site) - Win
Stanford (-3) at California - Win
Georgia (+14) vs. Alabama (Neutral Site) - Win
Fresno State (+3) at Boise State - Win
Ohio State (-14) vs. Northwestern (Neutral Site) - Win
Pittsburgh (+28) vs. Clemson (Neutral Site) - Loss
Last Week: 5-5
2018 Record: 46-50-2 (-10.68 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Hornets (+6) vs. Bucks - Win
Warriors (-8) vs. Magic - Loss
Grizzlies (+7) vs. Raptors - Loss
Thunder (-13) vs. Hawks - Win
Suns (+3) vs. Magic - Loss
Bucks (-6.5) at Knicks - Loss
Pelicans (+4.5) at Hornets - Win
Mavericks (+4) vs. Clippers - Win
Blazers (+2.5) at Spurs - Loss
Last Week: 4-4
2018-19 Record: 28-27 (-3.80 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NCAA Basketball Bets
Minnesota (+2.5) at Boston College - Loss
Wisconsin (-2) at Iowa - Win
Oklahoma State (+5.5) at Minnesota - Loss
San Francisco (+5) vs. Buffalo (Neutral Site) - Win
Louisville (+4.5) at Seton Hall - Win
Indiana (-7.5) vs. Northwestern - Loss
Kansas State (+4) at Marquette - Loss
Oregon (+4.5) at Houston - Win
Arizona (-1) at Connecticut - Win
Nebraska (-12) vs. Illinois - Win
Ohio State (-5.5) vs. Minnesota - Win
Last Week: 5-3-1
2018-19 Record: 14-7-1 (+4.58 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Newcastle (Pick) vs. West Ham - Loss
Huddersfield (Pick) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 3-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-17-5 (-3.28 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Leicester City (+125) vs. Watford - Win
Liverpool (-260) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-10 (-0.67 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
AEK Athens (+0.5) vs. Ajax - Loss
Manchester United (-1.5) vs. Young Boys - Loss
Bayern Munich (-1.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Shakhtar (+1) at Hoffenheim - Win
Lokomotiv (Pick) vs. Galatasaray - Win
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 16-9-3 (+3.67 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
CSKA Moscow (-125) vs. Viktoria Plzen - Loss
Tottenham (-130) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Barcelona (-200) at PSV - Win
Last Week 2-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 5-7 (-4.11 units)
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