With the trade deadline less than a week away, it's time for my favorite post of the year. I have yet to predict an actual trade, but I have renewed faith this year for a few reasons. First, the QB situation is not as stratified as it was in the past. Trading the top QB for the 15th QB and a mediocre RB used to be unthinkable because the gap between someone like Rodgers and Eli was enormous. This year, it might be worth taking a slight hit at QB for depth elsewhere, because the talent level is still pretty high. Second, there are a lot of teams eyeing the last couple playoff spots. If we consider Zacherman, Weissbard, Gutman and myself as playoff locks (it would be a historical anomaly if any of us missed), that still leaves Levine, Barnard, Belfer, Marco and Bennett with legit shots at the last two spots with little to distinguish them from each other. That's a ripe situation for trades. And finally, we have Rivalry Week looming in Week 13. While it doesn't appear that Ajay, Alan, Esco, Reap and BAM have much to play for (other than what could end up being a close battle for the Shot Spot), they still have a chance to play spoiler and win $50 back. With all that said, let's get to some trades.
Trade Grade 8
Bennett receives Isaiah Crowell
Marco receives O.J. Howard
We start with a real trade, and another relatively minor one at that. I'd rather have these types of trades than no trades, but I'm hoping we can collectively step up our games in the next week. I give Bennett the edge here because he gave up a guy he would never start for a guy he hopefully doesn't have to, while Marco gave up a guy he hopefully doesn't have to start for a a guy he unfortunately has to. On to more exciting stuff...
Bennett Grade: B-
Marco Grade: C
Mock Trade 1
Gutman receives Deshaun Watson, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins
Weissbard receives Drew Brees, Kareem Hunt, Michael Thomas and Randall Cobb
BOOM! We start off with a bang and probably the least likely of these trades to occur. These two teams are playoff-bound thanks to the highest powered offenses in the league. This trade would be Gutman selling-high on Hunt's share of the KC offense while betting big on the Rams. For Weissbard, he would be giving up the single most reliable asset in fantasy football for an absolutely absurd top four with absolutely no depth behind it. I like this version better for Weissbard, but giving up Gurley would take some stones.
Mock Trade 2
Ajay receives Kirk Cousins, Alvin Kamara, and Keke Coutee
Marco receives Andrew Luck, Sony Michel, and T.Y. Hilton
This is another potential blockbuster, but I have a little more faith in it actually happening. Marco's team is insanely reliant on its RBs, and this would be a step towards balance in adding the Colts duo, along with Michel's upside. For Ajay, he gets a legit stud at RB, while downgrading elsewhere. He's only playing for Rivalry Week, so Kamara's big game potential might look better than hoping Luck can link up with Hilton.
Mock Trade 3
Kumpf receives Corey Clement and DeAndre Hopkins
Zacherman receives Marlon Mack and Emmanuel Sanders
Zacherman's team is absurdly good, so he can likely sit tight and feel fine. If he has a weakness, it's at RB, where White's workload could drop and Howard is very TD-reliant. Marlon Mack has been a stud the last couple of weeks, and would give Z way more upside at that spot. The downgrade from Hopkins to Sanders might seem big, but it's only been three points per game so far this season and Demaryius is now stealing Hopkins' targets instead of Sanders'. For me, I just like making trades and owning the entire backfields of mediocre running games.
Mock Trade 4
Esco receives Matt Stafford and Tevin Coleman
Levine receives Aaron Rodgers and Kenyan Drake
This is one of those QB-centric trades I mentioned earlier. Rodgers hasn't been as lights out as usual, but he's unquestionably an upgrade over Stafford. Coleman would sure up Esco's RB situation, while Levine can afford to downgrade to Drake while simultaneously betting that Miami figures out who their best RB is.
Mock Trade 5
Belfer receives David Johnson and Doug Martin
Reap receives LeVeon Bell and Mark Ingram
To be honest, I just want to see a trade between these two. But this one makes some sense, and it gives Belfer some certainty surrounding his RB spots, espeically if he believes Conner will have a role for the rest of the season. For Reap, he gets potential upside with Bell's return and Ingram gaining steam as the season wears on Kamara. But really, just want to see a reality show on how trade negotiations between Belfer and Reap would go.
Mock Trade 6
Alan receives Cooper Kupp
BAM receives A.J. Green
This trade is all about priorities. Alan needs to win out and score as many points as possible to have a chance at the playoffs. BAM's only consolation prize this year would be winning Rivalry Week against Bennett. With Green out for at least a few weeks, this gives Alan a life raft while potentially making BAM's cellar dweller a formidable Week 13 opponent.
Mock Trade 7
Barnard receives Isaiah Crowell and Josh Gordon
Bennnett receives Leonard Fournette and TJ Yeldon
These two teams are surprisingly still relevant, but entirely unthreatening. Barnard likely can't resist adding yet another Pats receiver to get those double TDs, and getting rid of his Jags-related headache would be another bonus. For Bennett, he gets to corner the backfield on a run-centric team and try to fix his pitiful RB situation, while not really hurting himself elsewhere. Also seeing Crowell traded again would make everyone happy.
Playoff Odds
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams make the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams make the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams make the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10
I'll take a more in-depth look at the various playoff races starting next week, but as mentioned above, the top 4 teams are pretty much locked in. This week the big gap is between 6-4 and 5-5, so the pressure is on the bubble teams. We could know a lot more next week, but considering none of those teams are playing each other, we may still have a logjam.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - The Landlord Bowl - Bennett vs. Gutman
A lot of teams have important matchups this week, but none of them are really facing each other. Marco and I are both pretty likely to make the playoffs, as he will lead his division even with a loss, and my point total has me as a virtual lock for the 6th seed at worst. That leaves Bennett and Gutman, which is really only interesting if Bennett wins. In that case, we could theoretically have six teams at 6-4 next week, which would make for a pretty crazy last three weeks.
This looks like a legit matchup as well, as bye weeks and injuries aren't a huge factor outside of Bennett's already weak RB situation. Gutman's team is crazy top-heavy, but his big three each get nice matchups and should put up their customary 60+ points. I don't love the rest of his roster, but he has enough to hit 90. For Bennett, depending on which RBs he suits up, 90 might be a stretch. I would love to root for chaos, but that would involve me losing, so I'll stick with picking Mara.
Pick: Gutman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 6-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/5
NFL Bets
Bears (-6) vs. Lions - Win
Redskins (+3) at Bucs - Win
Dolphins (+10) at Packers - Loss
Seahawks (+10) at Rams - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2018 Record: 25-18-4 (+3.38 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Duke (-10) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Mississippi State (+25) at Alabama - Win
Oklahoma State (+21) at Oklahoma - Win
Utah (-4) vs. Oregon - Win
Miami (+3) at Georgia Tech - Loss
Texas Tech (+2) vs. Texas - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2018 Record: 32-40-2 (-12.63 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Pacers (+2.5) vs. Rockets - Loss
Blazers (+3.5) vs. Bucks - Win
Magic (+4.5) vs. Pistons - Loss
Jazz (-9.5) vs. Mavericks - Win
76ers (+3.5) at Grizzlies - Loss
Celtics (+4) at Blazers - Loss
Last Week: 4-5
2018-19 Record: 15-14 (-1.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NCAA Bets
Iowa State (-6) vs. Missouri - Win
2018-19 Record: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Win
Southampton (Pick) vs. Watford - Push
Huddersfield (+0.5) vs. West Ham - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 15-15-5 (-4.12 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Manchester City (-250) vs. Manchester United - Win
Arsenal (-165) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-2.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Schalke 04 (-1) vs. Galatasaray - Win
Lokomotiv (+1.5) at Porto - Loss
Valencia (-1) vs. Young Boys - Win
Benfica (Pick) vs. Ajax - Push
Real Madrid (-2) at Viktoria Plzen - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-7-3 (+3.43 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Monaco (-120) vs. Club Brugge - Loss
Tottenham (-265) vs. PSV - Win
Atletico Madrid (-110) vs. Borussia Dortmund - Win
Lyon (100) vs. Hoffenheim - Loss
Last Week 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-6 (-4.38 units)
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