Week 7 Recap

I'm not sure if it's the increase in scoring overall that's causing more variance, or if our league is really the have's and the have-nots, but we're really lacking close matchups this year. Esco text me at halftime of the early games on Sunday saying "At least I don't have to check the score any more." And he wasn't wrong, as I had about a 50-point lead from that point on. The same situation basically went on for Ajay, Bennett, and Alan, and the closest matchup was still over 14 points. It seems like there are a few huge performances every week, but other than Gurley, it's hard to guess where they're coming from. I don't know what to do about this situation, but it might make sense for teams to make more trades. If Team A's 4th receiver has a great matchup, but they have a terrible RB2, a trade with Team B even just to get a good lineup in for one week is more appealing than it was in the past. We're less than three weeks from the trade deadline, and I see a lot of unabalanced teams out there, so let's get some movement going.

Trade Grade 6
Gutman receives Randall Cobb
Kumpf receives Nyheim Hines
Speaking of exciting, league-altering trades! Not a lot to say here. I get Mack's handcuff, Gutman gets to forget that he straight up dropped Mack. Gutman gets yet another option for his revolving WR2 position, I get to avoid deciding between Cobb and Allison. If either of us really needs to start one of these guys, something has gone wrong.
Gutman Grade: C
Kumpf Grade: C

Playoff Odds

After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs

After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams make the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams make the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams make the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8

Down goes Weissbard! He was the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and it took Alan as our brown knight to prevent further damage. After just one loss, he's shockingly in danger of losing his lead in the division, though the bye seems safe. Gutman is also in good shape, and despite being barely over .500, my point total should at worst get me the 6th seed. Outside of those four teams, it's all up in the air.

On the flip side, Ajay's absurd D/ST performance gave him a breath of life, but his current roster does not look ready to compete this week, and he's in must-win mode. Reap and Esco join him on life support this week, barely dangling above BAM-land.

Team of the Week - Alan
When you take down a team that was previously 6-0, you get this spot every time. I didn't like Alan's team after the draft, and I don't like it now, but both his floor and ceiling are higher than I expected. Considering he started multiple non-elite tight ends, owned three Buffalo Bills, and started the Colts D (who was hilariously playing said Bills), it's pretty incredible that he got the high score of the week. He's also only a game back of a free-falling Marco in the division, and gets to face a Zeke-less Kumpf team that might want to see Alan's team make the playoffs. Masandiassance Part Two?

Best Lineup Move of the Week - Ajay starting Broncos D/ST
In most weeks, starting a defense that puts up 10 points is considered a win. For Ajay, a performance like that would have been a loss. Instead he won by over 20. Thanks Josh Rosen.

Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Antonio Callaway over Dion Lewis
I was very high on Sanu last week if he was healthy, and Ridley was out. Only half of those things happened, but I was still on the Sanu train. I was not on the Antonio Callaway train, however, and I have to assume this was a hedge on Sanu being ruled out on Monday? Tough break either way, and the Titans are miserable to watch, but Antonio Callaway costing you the playoffs will be potentially tough to swallow in six weeks.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - Bennett vs. Zacherman
This could have been a truly great matchup as Bennett's team is shockingly formidable. However, his roster takes a massive hit in the downgrade from Matty Ice to Flacco on the bye, as well as his Eagles traveling to Jacksonville. On the flip side, Z's Chiefs have to take on a surging Denver D, and while I don't expect that to be a huge issue, it's not easy street. The biggest stakes here are division-related. Both these teams are currently tied for first, and while Z should be safe either way, the bye is a potential concern with a loss. Bennett's range of outcomes is far greater, so this matchup could go a long way towards determining the rest of his season. I don't think things look great.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 4-3

Gambling Corner - Week of 10/22

NFL Bets
Dolphins (+8) at Texans - Loss
Steelers (-8) vs. Browns - Win
Seahawks (+3) at Lions - Win
Rams (-9) vs. Packers - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2018 Record: 19-15-4 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Minnesota (+3) vs. Indiana - Win
Texas Tech (+4) at Iowa State - Loss
Virginia (-9) vs. North Carolina - Win
Duke (-3) at Pittsburgh - Loss
Kentucky (+7) at Missouri - Win
Washington (-11) at California - Loss
Last Week: 0-6
2018 Record: 26-35-2 (-12.71 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Pelicans (-6) vs. Clippers - Win
Nets (+4.5) at Cavs - Win
Pacers (+3.5) at Spurs - Win
Raptors (-11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Kings (+5) vs. Wizards - Win
Pelicans (+3.5) vs. Jazz - Loss
Spurs (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Win
Last Week: 4-3
2018-2019 Record: 9-5 (+2.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Loss
Brighton (Pick) vs. Wolves - Win
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Manchester United (-0.5) vs. Everton - Win
Tottenham (+0.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-14-4 (-6.11 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Leicester City (+120) vs. West Ham - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-9 (-1.70 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)
Ajax (-0.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Monaco (+0.5) at Club Brugge - Win
Barcelona (-1) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Atletico Madrid (Pick) at Borussia Dortmund - Loss
Schalke 04 (Pick) at Galatasaray - Push
Lokomotiv Moscow (+0.5) vs. FC Porto - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-6-2 (+1.59 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)
Valencia (+115) at Young Boys - Loss
Tottenham (-105) at PSV - Loss
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.67 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Red Sox (+137) at Dodgers - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018 Record: 33-44 (-4.39 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)