First Round Preview

It's that time of year where we drop from 14 teams to 6 in pursuit of the elusive chef's coat, or in Belfer/Levine's case, a chef's hat. Zacherman deservedly won the regular season prize, as his team is still absurd on paper, but somehow my team had a better season. My four losses were by a combined 19.8 points and my team never scored less than 93.7, while Z's two losses were by a combined 33.8 points and he shit the bed at 75.4 points in one random week. Both of our teams would be worthy champions in any given year, and we are joined by strong Weissbard, Levine, and Belfer teams. Also Marco's here.

For some reason this fact escaped me until right now, but Zacherman has won back-to-back regular season championships. Looking even further, four of the six playoff teams returned from last year, Kumpf made the playoffs three years in a row, Z made the playoffs four years in a row, and Levine has made the playoffs five years in a row! There really is an upper class to this league, and the run that Levine and Z in particular have been on is truly incredible. On the flip side, Ajay, Barnard, and Reap haven't made the playoffs since 2015, the longest droughts in the league.

Playoff Odds

After Week 13:
We have never had a team start 13-0, 12-1, or 11-2
100% (2/2) of 10-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 9-4 teams make the playoffs
89% (8/9) of 8-5 teams make the playoffs
55% (6/11) of 7-6 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 6-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 5-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 4-9 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 3-10 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-11, 1-12, or 0-13

We had a few notable performances this year, as Z finished as the first 11-2 team in the ESPN era, and Marco becomes the second 6-7 team to make the playoffs. BAM showed up big to avoid the first 2-11 start, and knocked Bennnett out of the playoffs in the process.

The Hot Potato does not extend to the playoffs, so Alan takes home his second title with 51.3 points. I would not blame him for waiting until we receive Billy's card to send his own, but he's still on the hook.

First Round Preview

As always, I'll do position-by-position breakdowns for each team in honor of the late Dr. Z.

3. Weissbard vs. 6. Belfer

Quarterback
Goff was a huge trade acquisition by Belfer at midseason, but he nearly cost him the playoffs last week with a dud against Detroit. Things don't get much easier this week, as the Rams travel to Chicago to play outside in primetime on SNF. The Bears aren't as formidable as the elite defenses of the past (see: The Giants beating them), but Goff is still probably good a for two turnovers. Weissbard has a better situation with Deshaun taking on a shell-shocked Colts team at home. Houston's offense hasn't been dominant, but Watson has exploded a few times this year. I don't see that happening this week, but I'm still taking the easier matchup here.
Edge: Weissbard

Runningbacks
This discussion is easy, as Weiss destroys everyone at RB. The Bears come into play for Gurley, but he's still a lock for 15+, and Saquon should benefit from facing Mark Sanchez. Belfer was smart enough to handcuff John Conner, but he should expect a falloff with Jaylen Samuels, and Ingram hasn't been reliable but does have a juicy matchup.
Big Edge: Weissbard

Wide Receivers
This discussion is as easy as the RB discussion, just the other way around. Belfer's duo of AB and Evans haven't been as studly as expected, but they're still no-doubt WR1s with relatively easy matchups. Weissbard might have a ray of light with Golden Tate's performance on MNF, but that just counteracts David Moore's goose egg. Woods has to deal with the same Bears D that affects Goff and Gurley, so his ceiling is low.
Big  Edge: Belfer

Tight End
Trey Burton/Ian Thomas vs. Jared Cook. Ew.
Edge: Weissbard

Flex
Neither team has great flex options, but Belfer's choice between Blount/Richard/Sanu/Tre'Quan is superior to Weissbard's Moore/Penny/Gallup/Pettis.
Edge: Belfer

Pick
I like that this game comes down to SNF, and that all the relevant players are on one team. Gurley has been matchup-proof, while Goff has had random blips through the year (which, to be fair, hurts Woods as well). If Conner was healthy, I'd like Belfer's Steelers to put up 40 between them, but Samuels' workload questions give me just enough pause to favor Weissbard and end Belfer's Cinderalla run.
Pick: Weissbard

4. Levine vs. 5. Marco

Quarterback
Kirk on the road in Seattle on MNF is a terrifying thought for Marco. It's a huge game, but I've seen nothing this year to make me think Kirk can rise to the occasion. Dak has been equally inconsistent, but faces a Philly D that's about to start Charlie Day at cornerback. I don't think either QB blows up, but I like Dak's chances better.
Edge: Levine

Runningbacks/Flex
Both teams are built around their stable of solid to spectacular RBs, so I'll include flex in this discussion assuming Levine doesn't start Ridley or Sammy. Kamara is the clear #1 here, and he should eat against a Bucs team that he nearly scored 40 on in Week 1. After that, the breakdown is iffy. The Chargers probably have the second best matchup, but assuming Melvin doesn't play, Justin Jackson has a lower ceiling than Coleman and maybe AP (who should get roughly 60 carries so that Mark Sanchez doesn't have to throw the ball). Joe Mixon is banged up and facing the Chargers, so this decision comes down to Dalvin. I was super high on him before the season, but got lucky to get rid of him when I did. If Minny has a chance, it has to be Cook who carries them, and I have a feeling he shows up big.
Edge: Marco

Wide Receivers
LOL
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
C.J. Uzomah/Vernon Davis vs. Vance McDonald. Ew.
Edge: Even

Pick
Marco gets last licks with Cousins and Cook, but unless Levine shits the bed, he's likely going to be down by about 40. If Melvin Gordon was playing, I'd give Marco a chance. But even if Gordon somehow suits up, he's not likely to put up the points necessary to overcome Levine's superior depth.
Pick: Levine

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 14-8

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/3

NFL Bets
Jaguars (+5) at Titans - Loss
Bills (-3) vs. Jets - Loss
Bears (+3) vs. Rams - Win
Seahawks (-3) vs Vikings - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2018 Record: 35-25-5 (+5.01 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
As I did last year, I will be betting every bowl game starting next week.
I lost my Ohio State +1200 National Title bet, but I still have Oklahoma +4500, and hedge with a huge bet on Alabama -225. I also have Tua at +160 to win the Heisman.
Last Week: 5-2
2018 Record: 46-50-2 (-10.68 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Pistons (+4) vs. Thunder - Loss
Nuggets (+8) at Raptors - Win
Blazers (+3) at Mavericks - Loss
Nuggets (+2.5) at Hornets - Loss
Cavs (+4.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Nets (+9) vs. Raptors - Win
Nets (+4) at Knicks - Win
Blazers (-2) vs. T-Wolves - Win
Pistons (+3) vs. Pelicans - Loss
Bucks (+7) at Raptors - Win
Spurs (+5) vs. Jazz - Win
Last Week: 4-5
2018-19 Record: 34-32 (-4.13 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NBA Win Total Check-In
The Good
Celtics under 59
Hornets over 35.5
Warriors under 62.5
Rockets under 56.5
Pacers under 47.5
Magic over 31
Spurs under 43.5

The Bad
Nets over 32
Lakers under 48.5
T-Wolves over 41.5
76ers under 53.5

The Ugly
Hawks over 23.5
Mavericks under 35.5
Jazz over 49.5

NCAA Basketball Bets
Michigan State (-9) vs. Iowa - Win
Indiana (+2.5) at Penn State - Win
Oklahoma (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) - Win
Providence (+5) at Boston College - Win
West Virginia (+3.5) vs. Florida (Neutral Site) - Loss
Michigan (-5.5) at Northwestern - Loss
Ohio State (-5.5) at Illinois - Win
Villanova (-8.5) vs. Temple - Win
Nebraska (-3.5) at Minnesota - Loss
Gonzaga (-13.5) vs. Washington - Loss
USC (+3.5) vs. TCU - Loss
Seton Hall (+7) vs. Kentucky - Win
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Wichita State - Win
Villanova (-10.5) vs. St. Joseph's - Win
Houston (+3.5) at Oklahoma State - Win
Maryland (-8) vs. Loyola - Win
Wisconsin (+3) at Marquette - Loss
Arizona (+3) at Alabama - Push
Virginia (-13.5) vs. VCU - Loss
Gonzaga (-3) vs. Tennessee (Neutral Site) - Loss
Last Week: 7-4
2018-19 Record: 25-15-2 (+5.61 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (Pick) vs. Crystal Palace - Win
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Arsenal - Push
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at West Ham - Loss
Burnley (Pick) vs. Brighton - Win
Cardiff (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
Chelsea (+0.5) vs. Manchester City - Win
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 22-19-6 (-1.31 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Tottenham (-275) vs. Southampton - Win
Liverpool (-165) at Bournemouth - Win
Tottenham (+100) at Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 9-10 (-1.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 16-9-3 (+3.67 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 2-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 5-7 (-4.11 units)