We've somehow gone from a league where literally everyone was at .500 after 4 weeks to a league with only one team at .500 after 8 weeks, and that team is one of our two dominant teams so far. It's been a weird year in both real and fake football, and this league is no exception, as you'll see below.
Also, Alan has still not named his division or renamed his team.
Playoff Odds
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
I did a double take when I saw the massive drop-off from 6-3 to 5-4, but this apparently is the week where the top teams really separate themselves. So for Esco, Gutman and myself, we'll learn a lot about our collective fates. Luckily, we all play teams below .500, but with three teams above us, and Levine all but locking up the 6th seed, there's only room for two of us in the playoffs. On the flip side, BAM and Weissbard have joined Belfer as being historically eliminated. This week, they can be joined by Alan, Ajay, Barnard, and Reap. This is truly a league of have's and have not's, and unless Esco can rally, it looks like we're likely to have a first-time champ.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Bennett
2. Zacherman
3. Marco
4. Esco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine
Trade Recap
Barnard receives Amari Cooper and Mohamed Sanu
Gutman receives CJ Anderson and Randall Cobb
Despite the relatively big names involved here, this trade doesn't really move the needle much for either team. It's interesting that Barnard saw Blount become irrelevant and immediately decided "I should trade away a running back." If anything, this gives Gutman a shot at maintaining his playoff spot, but that's putting a lot of faith in both CJ and JuJu. Otherwise, a whole lot of meh.
Barnard Grade: C
Gutman Grade: B-
Trade Recap
Esco receives Matt Ryan, Lamar Miller, and D'Onta Foreman
Weissbard recieves Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde, and Davante Adams
Verrrry interesting trade here. Esco was held over a barrel with Watson's injury, but actually made out okay here. Esco clearly benefits by gaining a startable QB, but beyond that I think the value is debatable. Miller/Foreman are gonna see a big increase in volume, but that is likely offset by a decrease in quality. Regardless, I don't think they're appreciably worse as a weekly starter than Hyde, who's in a terrible situation as well. So a lot comes down to Adams. Similar to my trade for Jordy (which looks a lot better now that Garcon is out for the year), it remains to be seen how the Green Bay passing attack will look with a prepared Hundley. I have the luxury of only needing Jordy as a WR3, but Weiss also has nothing to lose. I like the trade better for Esco, but it's not a bad move for either team.
Esco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: B
Team of the Week - Barnard
Everyone knows how much I despise giving Barnard praise, but putting together a competitive (let alone winning) roster with the amount of byes he had last week, was honestly impressive, even if it was against Alan. He lost any semblance of goodwill with his subsequent trade, but having the balls to start Travis Benjamin (who I honestly didn't know was still on the Chargers, and also did this) gives him the honor this week.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bennett starting Fat Rob Kelley over Gio Bernard
This was honestly a great call. Even with losing his starting spot to Mixon, Gio was still facing a terrible Colts defense, and he's been respectable in the passing game at times as well. Instead, our shocking first place team went with Kelley coming off a rib injury in a game where they trailed the entire time, and it paid off. I still can't believe the standings when I look at them, but moves like this help explain.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Austin Sefarian-Jenkins over Jack Doyle
If our defending champ wanted any shot at repeating, he needed to take down a depleted Barnard squad. Instead, he couldn't even put up the 76 points necessary to do that, and it came down to his TE position. Not an obvious decision, but at 3-5, one that may have cost him his last shot at the playoffs.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Trades on Trades on Trades
This is obviously the most active NFL trade deadline of all time, so I'm hoping that trend applies to this league as well. The trade deadline is November 15th, so I'll have my annual trade suggestion post coming next week.
Biggest Matchup of Week 9 - Zacherman vs. Marco
We got ourselves a showdown! This is a de facto championship game for the Blackouts and Jewheads division, and it comes with these teams at a crossroads. Marco has wheeled and dealed his way to a 6-2 record, but he has yet to play Z, Bennett, Esco and Levine. Zacherman has stayed with the team he drafted, and has outscored every team in the league by a wide margin, but looks to finally be losing Zeke. To make matters more complicated, these teams are also losing a combined 6 starters to bye weeks. After correctly picking Levine last week, I'm trying to get on a hot streak, but I really think any outcome here is possible. With that in mind, I'll take the team who's been stronger overall and go with Z.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Win Total Check-In
Cardinals Over 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Loss
Bears Over 5.5 - On Pace for 6 - Win
Bengals Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Broncos Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Lions Under 8 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Texans Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Chargers Over 7.5 - On Pace for 6 - Loss
Rams Over 5.5 - On Pace for 11.4 - Win
Giants Under 9 - On Pace for 2.3 - Win
Raiders Under 10 - On Pace for 6 - Win
Bucs Under 8.5 - On Pace for 4.6 - Win
Assumed Wins: Rams, Giants, Raiders, Bucs
Assumed Losses: Cardinals
The rest are toss ups at this point.
NFL Week 9 Bets
Bills (-3) at Jets
Jaguars (-5) vs. Bengals
Rams (-3) at Giants
Saints (-7) vs. Bucs
Eagles (-8) vs. Broncos
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 22-14
NCAA Week 10 Bets
Iowa State (+3) at West Virginia
Miami (+3) vs. Virginia Tech
Last Week: 6-1-1
2017 Record: 19-17-3
No comments:
Post a Comment