Week 10 Recap

There are only three weeks left in the regular season, the trade deadline has passed, and for a few teams (including myself), any loss could be the one that forces you to miss the playoffs. So naturally, I'm going to Peru for the next week and will be mostly off the grid. I'm hoping that the mystical powers of Machu Picchu will magically give the Patriots' RB situation some clarity and turn Jordy Nelson back into a fantasy relevant receiver, but more likely I'll end up starting a guy who's injured because I have no internet access.

Regardless, no post next week, so let me be the first to say Happy Thanksgiving.

Playoff Odds

After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10

After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams made the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/10) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11

The playoff picture looks pretty set right now, but there's still a sliver of room for party crashers. Based on recent history, Zacherman, Bennett and Marco are all in, while it would take a collapse for Esco and me to miss out. And with the new playoff rules this year, it's basically impossible for Levine to not get at least the 6th seed.

On the flip side, Reap and Alan suffered crushing losses that puts them in the historically eliminated group with Weissbard, BAM, Barnard and Belfer.

That leaves Gutman and Ajay as potential party crashers. Gutman's team has had an absurd roller coaster ride, but it may have finally crashed thanks to Cam on MNF. He's still technically in the division race, but his slate includes Z and Bennett, while Levine and especially me have much easier schedules. The NiJo rule is probably Gutman's best option, but that would require passing multiple top 6 teams in points, or making up 2 games on Bennett, all while Levine takes over the division lead. As for Ajay, his only chance is for Wild Card chaos, because he's unlikely to make up the necessary ground points wise. Both of these teams should be rooting for Levine to win each week (though Ajay plays him still), Bennett to lose, and the Kumpf/Marco/Esco trio to put up low point totals.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Marco
3. Bennett
4. Esco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine (137.4 points above Gutman)

Team of the Week - Marco

Now that the Trade Deadline has passed, Marco is finally stuck with the team he's with. He may have set a FALAFEL record with 5 trades, and those moves took a team that look doomed on draft day to one that's aiming for a bye. By taking down Bennett, led by Adam "I'm on a revenge tour after being traded straight up for Elijah McGuire" Thielen, Marco has all but clinched a playoff spot. Even if his final three games include Levine and Esco, he can afford to drop both those games and hold onto his spot.



Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Garrett Celek over the rest of the Waiver TEs

No close games this week, so I'll pat myself on the back for picking up the backup TE on a winless team and seeing him put up 14.7 points.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman trading Adam Thielen straight up for Elijah McGuire

Again, no close games, but if Gutman started Thielen over Corey Davis, he would have saved his season. This is bar none the worst trade of all time.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Zacherman nearly got the high score without Zeke

His entire team hits double figures pretty much every week, and when you take down his best player, guys like Sterling Shephard rise from the ashes. Levine found his mojo again this week, but Z might still be favored without Zeke if they meet in the Stevens Bowl.


Biggest Matchup of Week 11 - Battle of Casas Grandes
After finally getting my record here back to .500 after the Crows Nest Bowl, we head south of the border for this week's big game. The Battle of Casas Grandes was apparently a big battle in the Mexican revolution, but in this case, Esco and Marco are battling to get a bye. Unfortunately for Esco, things are leaning pretty heavilty in Marco's favor. New acquisition Matty Ice gets the Seahawks in Seattle, and Tevin Coleman will start with Freeman hurt, negating any advantage there. Even a big Tyreek game will be offset somewhat by Marco's Alex Smith. Honestly, Marco's team looks like it's set up specifically to fuck Esco over this week, which is impressive. I'd bet the house on Marco. #ReverseTheKurse
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 5-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 11 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 47th out of 17,106: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (+2) vs. Ravens
Jaguars (-7) at Browns
Saints (-8) vs. Redskins
Texans (-2) vs. Cardinals
Patriots (-7) at Oakland (in Mexico City)
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 28-17

NCAA Week 12 Bets
Wisconsin (-7) vs. Michigan
Rutgers (+11) at Indiana
Texas A&M (+3) at Ole Miss
Vanderbilt (+9) vs. Missouri
UCLA (+16) at USC
Last Week: 4-1-1
2017 Record: 24-19-4