With the fantasy trade deadline looming next week, it's time for my favorite post of the year: The Trade Deadline Preview! As in years past, I'll do my best to concoct 7 trades that are as win-win as possible. I don't think any of my suggestions have ever actually occurred, but it hopefully gets everyone talking as rosters finalize before the playoff run.
Real Trade 1
Barnard receives James White and Vernon Davis
Marco receives Marcus Mariota and Steelers D/ST
We can start off with a real trade! Marco using trades as his waiver wire will never cease to be hilarious, but he did well here. Mariota and Smith is a solid QB combo, and Pittsburgh is a definite upgrade over the Chiefs deteriorating defense. Barnard's motivation outside of just getting rid of his unnecessary second QB and bringing in a Patriot is suspect, but White should at least be in the mix to start for him. It's still absurd that he couldn't get better for Mariota at any point this year.
Barnard Grade: B-
Marco Grade: B
Real Trade 2
Esco receives Jordan Matthews
Reap receives Theo Riddick
Esco's pathetic trade plea paid immediate dividends for Reap. I mentioned Esco's unbalanced roster below, so it makes sense that he would take a hit in any RB-for-WR trade. That said, it might have made sense to trade for a player with any upside, of which Matthews has none. On the Reap side, he flipped a guy he would never start to a flex-worthy RB (especially this week).
Esco Grade: C-
Reap Grade: B+
Real Trade 3
Weissbard receives Matt Breida
Marco receives Josh Doctson
Pretty uneventful deal here, but I'm committed to grading them all. Weissbard gets Hyde's handcuff, so his motivation is clear. As for Marco, this reeks of a homer pick, as I can't see him starting Doctson over his top three WRs, but I guess it balances his roster? Marco gets the better player, but Weissbard's team benefits more, if that makes sense.
Weissbard Grade: B
Marco Grade: B-
Real Trade 4
Ajay receives Ravens D/ST
Kumpf receives Jared Cook
Another TE/DST trade! Marco's mentality has been contagious as we've hit a solid 12 trades this year. The only teams who haven't made a trade are Z (who no one wants to deal with) and the BAM/BMO duos (who are impossible to deal with). As for this move, Ajay wasn't starting Cook over Graham, and I wasn't starting the Ravens over the Jags, so it's an easy win-win. If Ajay makes the playoffs he gets some nice matchups, and if Reed comes back at full strength then Cook is extraneous, but for now I don't see a loser.
Ajay Grade: B+
Kumpf Grade: B+
Mock Trade 1
Bennett receives Isaiah Crowell and Jordy Nelson
Kumpf receives Gio Bernard and Travis Kelce
Bennett and I can balance each others' rosters with a fairly simple move. Bennett can move away from flexing a TE, and add to his overall depth, while I get Reed insurance while handcuffing Bro Mixon.
Mock Trade 2
Weissbard receives Jared Goff, Wendell, Smallwood, Randall Cobb, and Zach Ertz
Gutman receives Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde, Nelson Agholor, and Ed Dickson
Ertz is really the only stud asset that Gutman has, so using him as a way to improve at RB and WR is really the only move he has left to salvage his season. As for Weissbard, maybe he can flip Ertz to Bennett for a huge mark up? It's shocking how bad these two rosters are.
Mock Trade 3
Alan receives Duke Johnson and Damien Williams
Esco receives Devin Funchess and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Esco has one of the weirdest rosters in the league, with a shit ton of RBs and literally 2 WRs. This helps him balance out, and gives a slight upgrade from Tyler Kroft at TE. Alan's RB situation is in dire straits, but getting two receiving backs will at least give him more options to start, without really hurting the rest of his roster too much.
Mock Trade 4
Ajay receives T.Y. Hilton
BAM receives Derrick Henry
This is a straight up challenge trade. Both teams have next to no hope this year, so they need to try to shake things up. Ajay gets to bet on Hilton's upside, even if it's betting big on Jake Brisket as well. BAM gets Murray insurance, with the possibility of starting both Titans RBs against the right matchup. I don't love this trade in general, but I also don't love either of these teams.
Mock Trade 5
Belfer receives Leonard Fournette, Chris Ivory, and Alshon Jeffrey
Reap receives Melvin Gordon and Julio Jones
This is by far my favorite trade. The former duo making a crazy blockbuster with each other. There's not too much analysis here, but Reap already has Melvin's handcuff, and has spoken ill about Fournette's attitude. It likely won't have any effect on the playoff picture, but I think it needs to happen.
Mock Trade 6
Zacherman receives Doug Martin
Levine receives Ezekiel Elliott and Chris Hogan
The final mock trade is between our clear favorites, a la the Kyrie trade. Levine has assembled an extremely deep team, but has some question marks at receiver now that Watson is done and Kelvin has to learn a new offense. This would allow him to get some clarity at WR, and obviously bets that Zeke can come back at some point. For Zacherman, he gets to maintain his three-headed monster at RB without worrying about suspension. It hurts him at WR, but I don't think he was relying too heavily on Hogan to begin with.
Playoff Odds
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10
Last week was supposed to be the week of delineation. Gutman, Esco and I had the chance to make a playoff push, while Barnard, Reap, Alan, and Ajay could have all been eliminated. Things didn't go according to plan, and if it wasn't for an absurd late screen pass to Theo Riddick on MNF, all of the 5-3 teams would have lost and all of the 3-5 teams would have won. As it stands, things are a little bit less clear this week, but the guillotine still looms over the 4-5 teams, while the 5-4 teams can set themselves up nicely. This will be explored more in the Matchup of the Week.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Bennett
3. Esco
4. Marco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine
Team of the Week - Ajay
It's increasingly hard not to give this to Zacherman every week, but for the sake of narrative, Ajay did us all a favor this week. If he didn't win this week, Bennett would have been the first team in FALAFEL history to start 8-1, which is completely unacceptable. He got the win thanks to McCaffrey's first rushing TD, along with a solid performance from waiver wire pickup Kenyan Drake, so it was a respectable performance overall. But mainly, he beat Bennett and that earns him this honor.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer starting Tyrod Taylor over Matt Stafford
No one made a good decision that actually won a matchup this week (Esco and BAM won close matchups despite some absolutely horrible lineup management), but if I had not been a pussy and kept Marvin Jones in over Jordy Nelson, Belfer making this decision would have won him the week. Silver linings in a lost season for Belf.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard started LeGarrette Blount over Jeremy Maclin and Mohamed Sanu
Between this starting lineup and the trade with Gutman last week, it's almost like Barnard doesn't think that Blount is being phased out in Philly. Honorable mention to Bennett starting Gio over Fat Rob after winning Best Lineup Decision of the Week for doing literally the exact opposite last week. If he had any risk of missing the playoffs, this would be an all-time mistake, but instead we need to punish Barnard.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Levine Shits The Bed
Zacherman's team has looked unstoppable for weeks now, but his best player has a looming suspension that would officially knock him out for the season if it comes this year. That made Levine the favorite in my mind, as his team could take multiple hits and still come out looking solid. That changed this week, as his team looked vulnerable for the first time this year. Is this season now wide open? Probably not, but it's good to see that the #AnyGivenSunday rule still applies.
Biggest Matchup of Week 10 - The Crow's Nest Bowl
Alan's (STILL UNNAMED!) division has been absurd this year, and the two mediocre teams at the top of it finally get to face off this week. Levine looms large behind us, but the winner of this matchup is guaranteed to have a lead over him heading into the final three weeks of the season, making this a potential elimination game. Gutman is somehow killed by byes once again, losing Ertz for the week, while I'm down Crabtree to a bye and Jordan Reed to his usual injured self. Both of us are leaning heavily on the Lions against Cleveland, but while I have their RB and WR, Gutman has their backup TE an D/ST. That pretty much sums up this matchup. I'll #Kurse myself, but hopefully I get back to .500 on the year in these picks, while simultaneously punching my playoff ticket.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 4-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 10 Bets
My method for picking NFL games typically assigns a confidence rating to each game, and pick any game where I'm more than 60% confident. Luckily, 538 has a pick'em contest this year where you get to pick every game based on confidence (no spread, just to win). You get points for picking correctly, but you're penalized twice as much for wrong picks, so just going with 100% for each game is a bad strategy. Through 9 weeks, I'm in 94th place out of over 16,000 people: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Having said that, I hate the lines this week.
Lions (-13) vs. Browns
Jaguars (-4) vs. Chargers
Saints (-3) at Bills
Cowboys (+3) at Falcons
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 26-15
NCAA Week 11 Bets
North Carolina (+10) at Pittsburgh
Rutgers (+31) at Penn State
Wake Forest (+1) at Syracuse
West Virginia (+3) at Kansas State
Colorado (+14) vs. USC
TCU (+7) at Oklahoma
Last Week: 1-1
2017 Record: 20-18-3
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