Week 13 Preview

We finally made it to the last week of the regular season, and while there isn't the heightened drama that we usually get in this league, plenty of teams still have reasons to compete. Whether it's for a bye, playoff spot, avoiding the pre-draft shots, or simply to win the elevated Week 13 prize, this is the last week that all 14 teams will be actively competing. Rather than go through the usual sections in this space, I'm going to go team-by-team and outline the potential scenarios they face this week. Teams listed in order of playoff seeding if the season ended today, with one exception.

1. Zacherman
Clinched playoffs and first round bye. He can clinch the regular season prize with a win over Esco, with a loss to Esco combined with a Marco loss to Levine, or with a loss to Esco combined with a Marco win over Levine where Marco doesn't outscore him by over 115. TLDR, Zacherman clinched the #1 seed.

2. Marco
Clinched playoffs. He can clinch a first round bye with a win over Levine, with a loss to Levine combined with a Kumpf loss to Barnard, or with a loss to Levine combined with a Kumpf win over Barnard where Kumpf doesn't outscore him by over 61. He can also take over the #1 seed if he beats Levine, Zacherman loses to Esco, and he outscores Z by over 115. TLDR, Marco clinched the #2 seed.

3. Kumpf
Clinched playoffs. I can take over the #2 seed if I beat Barnard, Marco loses to Levine, and I outscores Marco by over 61. Otherwise, I clinch the #3 seed with a win. If I lose to Barnard and Levine beats Marco, I fall to the #4 seed. I cannot fall further than that.

4. Levine
Due to his huge lead over all the other contenders in points scored, Levine has clinched the playoffs. If he beats Marco and Kumpf loses to Barnard, he gets the #3 seed. If he beats Marco and Kumpf beats Barnard, he gets the #4 seed. If he loses to Marco and Bennett beats Gutman, he gets the #5 seed. He can't fall further than that.

6. Esco
I'm going out of order here, because Esco has clinched the playoffs in a similar way that Levine has. Despite potentially (and because he's facing Z, probably) finishing at 6-7, Esco has close to a 100 point lead on the next three teams, so he has clinched at least the #6 seed and at best the #5 seed. If he beats Zacherman and Bennett loses to Gutman, he gets the #5 seed, otherwise he gets the #6 seed.

This is where it gets interesting. Thanks to Bennett's free-fall and relatively low point total, the following three teams could all potentially qualify for the final playoff spot.

5. Bennett
No one took him seriously at 7-1, but a 4-game losing streak (and a questionable 0.5 point win over me earlier in the season), has exposed this team for the fraud that it is. If Bennett beats Gutman this week, he clinches the #5 seed and that's that. Even if he loses to Gutman and Esco loses to Zacherman, Bennett still wins BAM's horrible division and clinches the #5 seed. However, if he loses to Gutman, and Esco beats Zacherman, things get interesting. If Bennett loses to Gutman by more than 7.4, Gutman passes him in total points and eliminates Bennett. If Bennett loses to Gutman by less than 7.4, but Alan beats Reap and outscores Bennett by 21.8, then Alan passes him in total points and eliminates Bennett. This is the single most important team in Week 13.

7. Gutman
Against all odds, he's still in this thing. Odds aren't great however and if he loses to Bennett or Zacherman beats Esco, he's immediately eliminated. But if Esco beats Zacherman, Gutman beats Bennett by more than 7.4, and Alan does not beat Reap while outscoring Gutman by 14.4, then Gutman improbably clinches the #5 seed.

8. Alan
Our defending champion is somehow still alive for his third Stevens Bowl title. Alan has chugged along at around .500 all year, and I guess I just never really considered him as a team that could compete for a playoff spot. But just like herpes, he is flaring up at a very inopportune time for Bennett and Gutman. Similar to Gutman, he can be immediately eliminated if he loses to Reap or Zacherman beats Esco. But if Esco beats Zacherman, and Alan beats Reap while outscoring the winner of the Bennett/Gutman matchup by either 21.8 (Bennnett) or 14.4 (Gutman), then the groom-to-be will get a shot to defend his title.

9. Reap
Eliminated from the playoffs, and clear from last place. Reap's only reason to compete is to play spoiler for Alan.

10. Ajay
Eliminated from the playoffs, and clear from last place. Ajay's only reason to compete is to help force Belfer into last place.

11. Barnard
Eliminated from the playoffs. He currently has an 81-point lead on Weissbard, so I'm going to go ahead and say he's clear from last place. He can't even spoil my playoff spot, so he can spend the weekend sweeping up cocks.

12. Belfer
Eliminated from the playoffs. He has a 42.1-point lead on Weissbard, so technically he's not clear from last place. If he beats Ajay or Weissbard loses to BAM, he's clear. The only way he ends up in last place is if he loses to Ajay and Weissbard beats BAM while outscoring him by 42.1, along with BAM outscoring him by 14.6.

13. BAM
Eliminated from the playoffs. He has a 27.5 point lead on Weissbard, so he's still in danger of ending up in last place. If he beats Weissbard, he's clear. If he loses to Weissbard and Belfer loses to Ajay, but he outscores Belfer by 14.6, he's also clear. The only way he ends up in last place is if he loses to Weissbard by 27.5 while not outscoring a losing Belfer team by 14.6.

14. Weissbard
Eliminated from the playoffs and very likely in last place. His situation is simple, he needs to beat BAM by at least 27.5, otherwise he takes the pre-draft shots next year.


Biggest Matchup of the Week - The Landlord Bowl
As much as Weissbard probably wants the Toilet Bowl in this space, the biggest playoff implications reside in our nation's capital. I've discussed the impact of this matchup above, so now it's time to break it down. Gutman made some big waiver moves this week, picking up the dynamic duo of Jalen Richard and Byron Marshall, but his squad is still severely undermanned. Bennett gets to lead off with Dak and Perine on TNF, which could mean anything from 10-30 points, and will set the tone for the week. The individual matchups clearly favor Bennett throughout, but JuJu presents an interesting wild card on MNF. If he completely misses the game, Gut could be left with no options to start (note to Gutman, not picking up Martavis last week is almost as bad as trading Thielen for McGuire). However, if JuJu plays, he has a potential 25 point week in him at all times. As much as I'm tempted to make things interesting and pick Gutman, Bennett should win by 40+.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 7-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 13 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 99th out of 17,816: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Bears (-3) vs. 49ers
Texans (+7) at Titans
Vikings (+3) at Falcons
Saints (-4) vs. Panthers
Last Week: 0-3
2017 Record: 31-22

NCAA Week 14 Bets
For the remainder of the college season, I'll be betting on all the major conference championship games, and each bowl game. This week is all on the dogs.
Stanford (+4) vs. USC
Memphis (+7) vs. Central Florida
TCU (+8) vs. Oklahoma
Georgia (+3) vs. Auburn
Wisconsin (+6) vs. Ohio State
Miami (+10) vs. Clemson
Last Week: 0-0
2017 Record: 27-21-4