Week 7 Recap

We're 7 weeks into the season, and Bennett sits alone in first place. What the actual fuck? To keep us all from killing ourselves, I'm going to power rank the league based on the strength of their current squads.

1. Zacherman
2. Levine

These are clearly our top 2 teams. Z has been probably the most impressive so far, but if Zeke goes down, Levine will be right there to take over the #1 spot.

3. Bennett
4. Kumpf
5. Marco

I could flip a coin here, but a somewhat shorthanded Bennett team did just beat me by 0.5, and I beat Marco earlier this year. My guess is two of these three teams makes the playoffs.

6. Esco
7. Barnard

Esco is probably a lucky 5-2. Barnard is probably an unlucky 2-5. I like Esco's team more but Barnard will not be a fun team to play on any given week (other than this week because he is physically incapable of planning ahead, which is why his entire team is on bye and he's living alone in a four bedroom house).

8. Weissbard
9. Reap

These are my two sleeper picks. Don't look now but Weissbard put together a solid team. And I'm on record in being worried about Reap, but if Fournette isn't 100%, he's done.

10. Belfer
11. BAM
12. Ajay
13. Alan

These teams have too many holes to make up for their talent in other places. I think Alan's trade with me kept his season alive (if on life support), and the rest of these teams should think about doing the same.

14. Gutman

No matter what who he starts this week, Gutman will be have a starting lineup that was worth less than $75 in draft auction money. I can't imagine anyone else has ever dropped below even $100, let alone a 5-2 team. More on this situation below.

Also Alan has still not named his division (or renamed his team), while Ajay's team name refers to a series of trades that happened over a year ago with a team that is no longer in the league. Get your shit together Indians.


Playoff Odds

After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs

After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8

Based on history, only Belfer is eliminated. This has been a year of mediocrity in the NFL, and FALAFEL is no different. I guess that makes Belfer the Browns, Bennett the Eagles, and Gutman the Dolphins.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Bennett
2. Zacherman
3. Esco
4. Marco
5. Gutman
6. Levine


Trade Recap
Alan receives Derek Carr and Pierre Garcon
Kumpf receives Jordy Nelson
No one has offered to write this one up, so I guess I'll do it myself. This was probably the easiest trade I've ever negotiated, which is saying something considering it was with Alan. Early on Tuesday, Barnard alerted me to the fact that Alan lost Carson Palmer and had no viable options at QB. Barnard was trying to trade rape Alan, by acquiring Cooks for Mariota and Blount. Alan apparently requested that Barnard change his team name to something insulting about me as part of the deal, which I can respect, but the deal never happened. As it turns out, Alan and I could put together a mutually beneficial deal that keeps his team afloat at QB, and gives my boring team a higher potential ceiling. I'll give the edge to Alan here, as he clearly benefited more, but I think we both made out pretty well.
Alan Grade: A
Kumpf Grade: B+


Team of the Week - Belfer

Even the losers get lucky sometimes (RIP in peace Petty). A week after costing himself the win by sitting AP, he almost made the same mistake in reverse, but Esco couldn't rise to the occasion. Moving forward, I think this team isn't a threat to go on a run to the playoffs, but I'm not looking forward to facing Julio after watching him son Malcolm Butler like that.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bennett starting Cameron Brate over Rob Kelley

No great options this week, and it feels wrong to praise Bennett after he started Eric "Goose Egg" Decker, but that's where we are.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Cam Newton over David Carr

Losing by 0.5 is never fun, but doing so while knowing you could have won by 20? That's worse. Carr clearly was creating division in my locker room, so I had to ship him out immediately. Jordy, welcome to the squad.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman's Luck
Maybe this isn't surprising anymore. After the draft, I wasn't the biggest fan of Gutman's team, but I figured he would linger around the playoffs for most of the season. After DJ went down, I thought his chances were slim to none. Even after getting off to a 4-2, I figured losing Rodgers was the actual nail in his coffin. But he just keeps finding a way, with Amari Cooper's resurgence as the latest reason for his big day. At 5-2, he's now either set up to become the worst playoff team we've ever seen, or to suffer the biggest collapse in recent FALAFEL history.


Biggest Matchup of Week 8 - Levine vs. Gutman
After placing the worst #Kurse of all time on myself, it's time to take that evil elsewhere. A lot of the teams in this section have been used multiple times, but that's because Alan's (unnamed) division is by far the most interesting. These two teams are headed in opposite directions, but Gutman still has an important 2-game lead in the division, which would prevent Levine from being eligible for the bye. In a week with 6 teams on bye, somehow Levine's insanely deep team is completely unaffected, yet one of Gutman's three actual fantasy starters is out. However, Gutman has a nice slate of matchups, even if his actual players are laughable. I'd like to say he can keep it close, but the talent disparity, along with Kareem Hunt getting last licks, means I have to #Kurse Levine.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 8 Bets
Vikings (-9) vs. Browns (Neutral Site)
Saints (-9) vs. Bears
Eagles (-13) vs. 49ers
Redskins (+2) vs. Cowboys
Chiefs (-7) vs. Broncos
I also like a Vikings/Saints/Eagles/Chiefs Money Line Parlay at +120
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 19-12

NCAA Week 9 Bets
I'm 2-7-1 in the last two weeks, so it's time to double down with my most bets of any single week, including one on Rutgers at the Big House.
Florida State (-3) at Boston College
Rutgers (+24) at Michigan
Wake Forest (+3) vs. Louisville
Georgia (-14) vs. Florida (Neutral Site)
Notre Dame (-7) vs. NC State
South Carolina (-7) vs. Vanderbilt
Oregon (+4) vs. Utah
Mississippi State (-1) at Texas A&M
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 13-16-2