Finally back in the USA, and wanted to get out something quick for posterity about Week 12. Enjoy the weekly sections below as your nurse your collective hangovers and get ready for the final set of games today and tomorrow night.
Playoff Odds
After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams made the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/10) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11
After Week 12:
We have never had a team start 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2
100% (5/5) of 9-3 teams made the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 8-4 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 7-5 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 6-6 teams made the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 5-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-10, 1-11, or 0-12
After all the discussion about changing the playoff qualifications this year, we officially have our most boring playoff races ever. There are 6 teams over .500, and the "worst" two of those six by record are both top 4 scoring teams. I'm pretty sure that the playoff teams (not seeds) are set already, but I guess theoretically Gutman, Alan, and Reap are still alive if they win out and get a shit ton of help to win their divisions. The biggest drama is around who gets the byes. Zacherman looks to have one locked up, but there could be close races between the other 5 top teams depending on the next two weeks. I'm really grasping at straws for drama here, as even the weekly low score/Christmas card was locked up months ago.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Marco
3. Kumpf
4. Bennett
5. Levine
6. Esco
Biggest Matchup of Week 12 - Zacherman vs. Bennett
Obviously with three games played already, I have a bit of an advantage in making this pick, so I went with the only matchup of playoff teams, as well as one where Z could clinch a bye. Bennett got a nice performance from potential waiver pickup of the year Samaje Perine, but that was offset by Dak continuing to fall off a cliff. Zacherman started off fine, but his previously dominant team is starting Mike Wallace, and one of Matt Forte/Brandon LaFell/Zay Jones. I think Z wins it, but Bennett keeps it close enough that Wallace needs to show up on MNF.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 6-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 12 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 67th out of 17,816: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Bucs (+10) at Falcons
Jaguars (-5) at Cardinals
Saints (+2) at Rams
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 31-19
NCAA Week 13 Bets
Already missed the NCAA bets but nothing important happened this week, right?
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 27-21-4
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