Quarterfinal Preview

The playoffs are finally here, and we have three repeat teams in Zacherman, Levine and myself. Z gets the week off along with Marco, so here are the usual Dr. Z breakdowns of the quarterfinal matchups.

Matchup 1: 3) Kumpf vs. 6) Esco

Quarterback
The QBs in this matchup are facing off this week in what could easily be a low-scoring slugfest. I still have trouble believing that Case Keenum is an above average NFL (or fantasy) starter, but I also hate having to trust Cam every week when half the time it looks like he forgot how to throw. Our IR battle of Watson vs. Rodgers would be much more entertaining, but we're stuck with what we got (Until potentially next week for me. Be very afraid Marco.)
Slight Edge: Kumpf

Runningback
Both teams have an extremely deep stable of RBs, but mine are currently pretty banged up. Esco would always have the higher ceiling with Freeman (who has the potential to get him out to a 20 point lead on TNF), but the floor of my group is pretty high as well. Lamar Miller could be the X-factor here, as he gets a juicy matchup with the Niners, but my Pats RB duo gets last licks against a terrible Miami team. Esco needs this one more than I do.
Edge: Esco

Wide Receiver
This is where the matchup is likely to be decided. Esco's duo either has a very high ceiling (Reek) or his success comes at the expense of one of my guys (Tate), and on top of that, they both have great matchups. My matchups aren't too bad either, but I've been terrible at making my flex decision all year. I'm going to assume that Reek doesn't go off again, but I don't get any huge weeks either, and hedge my bets.
Edge: Even

Tight End
What a cluster. Last week, the Raiders were without Crabtree and Cooper, yet Jared Cook only put up one catch for nine yards, giving him 4 combined receptions in the last three weeks. I'm going back to the well one more time, but I have absolutely no faith in breaking 5 points. Esco's Tyler Kroft/Chicken Wing duo maxes out at about 40 yards, so they're entirely TD-dependent.
Edge: Even

D/ST
My best player, the Jags D, gets to go up against a Seattle O-Line that has no prayer of keeping Russ on his feet. Seattle should put up points, and likely won't have multiple turnovers, limiting the ceiling here, but Sacksonville is guaranteed double digits based on QB takedowns alone. Esco gets to choose between the Chargers and Panthers (who are going up against his QB). Neither option is terrible, but neither option is likely to keep up with the Jags.
Edge: Kumpf

Overall
This is gonna be close. Esco has a much higher ceiling, breaking 100 four times and breaking 90 five more times. However, he also has three weeks under 90 and one under 60, giving him the lower floor. My team has been the definition of consistency, scoring between 87-93 six times, while breaking 100 four other times and only falling below 83 once. But in the playoffs experience matters. I'm 0-2 career, making me the Marvin Lewis of FALAFEL, while Esco has a chef's coat in his past. I'm going with history.
Pick: Esco


Matchup 2: 4) Levine vs. 5) Bennett

Quarterback
This is the key position in this matchup. Both Russ and Dak have had recent protection issues, but Russ is taking on the scary Jags D, while Dak gets a confusing Giants team. Both are on the road, which could lead to some weather issues for Dak in Jersey, potentially negating an easier matchup. This is gonna be close, but I'll lean towards Russ's talent even in a tougher matchup.
Slight Edge: Levine

Runningback
Lots of talent for these two teams at RB. Levine has alternately had Hunt and Ingram as the best RBs in fantasy, while Bennett's group has been somewhat disappointing on a week-to-week basis. I have to give Levine the edge here based on prior performance, but I actually think Bennett can hold his own with his trio, especially if Ingram is limited.
Edge: Levine

Wide Receiver
This is where we see some real separation. I don't think that DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen are the best receivers in the world, but their QBs certainly do (this could also apply to Josh Gordon), as they both rack up a shit ton of targets. Even if Mike Evans has one of his big games, this is a huge advantage for Levine.
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
If Bennett has any prayer of making the Final Four, it has to come from Kelce. Last week was a dream situation, where two early TDs guaranteed a huge day. He scored earlier this year against Oakland, but was held in check outside of the TD, so Bennett has to hope to improve on that performance because he needs 20+. As for Levine, if Austin Hooper outscores Kelce then we should all give up because this year is over.
Big Edge: Bennett

D/ST
Both teams here are benching their usual D for a better Week 14 matchup. That process usually leads to a toss up, and that's what I'm thinking here. The Bears suck, but don't usually turn the ball over, limiting Levine's ceiling. The Cardinals have Blaine Gabbert, but Bennett's starting a Titans D that isn't very good. No use picking between subpar options.
Edge: Even

Overall
Is there a path to victory for Bennett here? The Dakstreet Boys could blow out the G-Men, while the Jags hold Seattle under 10 points. Marshawn and Kelce could trade TDs, while Kamara dominates the touches for the Saints. Even if those somewhat long-shots happen, I still see Levine dominating the WR battle and pulling out a win and a highly anticipated matchup with Z.
Pick: Levine

Matchup Predictions: 8-5 (6 game winning streak)

Gambling Corner

NFL Week 14 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 112th out of 18,988: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (-3) at Browns
Texans (-3) vs. 49ers
Panthers (+3) vs. Vikings
Cardinals (+3) vs. Titans
Eagles (+3) at Rams
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 33-24

NCAA Bowl Bets
Coming next week.
Last Week: 2-2-2
2017 Record: 29-23-6