Week 4 Recap

I don't think we've ever had a week where 12/14 teams were at .500 or better, but thanks to most of the league's general mediocrity, as well as Weissbard and Belfer's abject awfulness, here we are. A lot of this is just early season noise caused by unbalanced schedules, so breaking the league down by actual points scored, as well as a look forward, we're left with the following tiers:

True Contenders: Levine, Esco, Zacherman, Bennett
Need Some Help: Barnard, Gutman, Marco, Kumpf, Alan
No Idea: Ajay, BAM
There's Always Next Year: Weissbard, Reap, Belfer

Ajay and BAM are an interesting juxtaposition, because their teams are essentially opposites. I can in no way write them off, but when things go wrong, they go really wrong. But the most interesting tier is the one that needs help. Barnard and Gutman need RBs desperately, Marco and I could use some general talent upgrades, while Alan just needs his improbable RB rotation to keep producing. It's likely that two of these teams will join the top tier in the playoffs, but we're a long way from having any clarity there.

Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.


Playoff Odds

After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs

After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

For the first time, we have an official elimination record this week, so if Weissbard or Belfer loses, they will face an uncharted road to the playoffs. It's also a week of decent delineation between 2 and 3 win teams, which is particularly important for our 8 2-2 teams, however we only have two matchups between them.


Trade Recap
Gutman receives Elijah McGuire
Marco receives Adam Thielen
Oh Gutman No. Marco took $27 waiver dollars, lit them on fire by spending them on the 3rd string RB for the Jets, then somehow took the ashes and flipped them for a startable WR. This is such a raping by Marco, and such an insane misread on the market by Gutman, that I'm tempted to adjust their tiers above. Good God Gutman.
Marco Grade: A+
Gutman Grade: F

Esco receives Charles Clay and Broncos D/ST
Marco receives James White and Jason Witten
Interesting trade here, I can't remember seeing a defense traded before, but Marco has now completely revamped his team after his blacked out draft strategy led to a very unbalanced team. On the heels of the trade above, Marco makes a nice upgrade at RB here, while making small downgrades at TE and D/ST. As for Esco, getting Denver's D takes him out of the streaming life, saving his waiver money for bigger fish. And while I'm not sold as Clay as a no-doubt starter at TE (he's absolutely getting hurt in the next two weeks), he's still an upgrade from Witten. I'm giving Esco the slight edge here based on this trade alone, but Marco's team is unquestionably stronger than it was last week.
Esco Grade: B+
Marco Grade: B-



Team of the Week - Zacherman

This was just total domination. It barely edges Levine for highest score on the season, but it also was the most complete performance by a team this year. The only thing more surprising than Sterling Shepard being Z's lowest scorer with 7.9 points is the fact that he could have added another 8.7 points if he started Eli.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah over Crowell or Martavis

I fucking hate picking my starting lineup each week, but I finally got one right. No other great calls this week.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer :(

In a must-win matchup, if Belfer started either Cooper Kupp or Mike Wallace over Jamison Crowder, he would have easily beaten Alan (who benched Bilal Powell). Instead he was rewarded with negative points from Crowder and is still winless on the year. Honorable mention to Marco picking wrong in his Alex Smith vs. Philip Rivers QB controversy.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Ajay

It doesn't seem like anyone will challenge Billy's Week 1 futility, but Ajay put up a shockingly terrible performance this week. One of my preseason Stevens Bowl picks because of his depth, this is what happens when a deep team takes a collective dump. On the bright side, at least you didn't make any terrible lineup decisions?


Biggest Matchup of Week 5 - Bennett vs. Levine
It's baaaaack! After a brief success to start the year, the #Kurse is back with a vengeance. There were no great 2-2 matchups this week, so I'm picking a matchup between contenders who have had very different luck this year. After Levine made the playoffs with a bottom-three scoring team last year, his luck has completely regressed this year. Not only is he an unlucky 2-2, but he lost Dalvin Cook to a brutal ACL injury last week. I wasn't surprised in the least to see that he already had Latavius locked up, so I don't see a huge drop off moving forward, even with Ingram and CJ on byes. Bennett losing Sanders and Fat Rob to byes should hurt a lot more, so I'm gonna pick my apparent rival to start turning his luck around this week. Levine, you've been #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-3


Gambling Corner

Before getting to this week's picks, I want to add a small disclaimer. While I'm not saying you should be using my weekly bets as actual betting advice, I do have some advice you should take: NBA and MLB win totals. With baseball season just ending, I hit on 18 of the 26 win total over/under bets I made, and over the last three years I've hit on 68%. I'll publish those next year if anyone is interested in free money.

Speaking of free money, I'll also list my NBA win total bets next week, where I'm over 75% in the last three years. As for NFL win totals, my Rams over 5.5 and Giants under 9 bets look good, but I also have the Chargers over 7.5 and  Lions under 8. Historically, I'm right at 50% in the NFL, which loses money after the vig.

NFL Week 5 Bets
Eagles (-6) vs. Cardinals
Bills (+3) at Bengals
Jets (Pick) at Browns
Packers (+2) at Cowboys
Chiefs (-1) at Texans
Last Week: 2-3
2017 Record: 10-8

NCAA Week 6 Bets
Duke (+3) at Virginia
Florida State (+4) at Miami
LSU (+4) at Florida
Texas A&M (+27) vs. Alabama
Arizona (+7) at Colorado
Last Week: 0-4
2017 Record: 8-9