Week 5 Recap

In a league where more than half the teams had the same record, I guess it's no surprise that we had the closest matchups in recent memory during Week 5. This made for some stressful Sundays/Mondays for most of the league, and also makes lineup decisions extremely difficult, though the specific lineup decisions facing each team varies wildly.

Here's each team's toughest lineup decision for Week 5, as well as whether they were right or wrong:
Alan: Frank Gore over  Tarik Cohen - Right
Kumpf: Mike Gillislee over Isaiah Crowell - Wrong
Ajay: Derrick Henry over Terrance West - Wrong
Weissbard: Nelson Agholor over Jeremy Kerley - Right
Zacherman: Sterling Shepard over Allen Hurns - Wrong
Belfer: Matthew Stafford over Tyrod Taylor - Right
Bennett: Kenny Stills over Gio Bernard - Wrong
Levine: Doug Martin over LeGarrette Blount - Right
Barnard: Jacquizz Rodgers over Aaron Jones - Wrong
Gutman: Elijah McGuire over Kerwynn Williams - Right
Esco - Duke Johnson over Thomas Rawls - Right
Reap - Danny Amendola over Kendall Wright - Right
BAM - Alex Collins over Robby Anderson - Right
Marco - James White over Wayne Gallman - Wrong

Some of you cost yourselves a win with these choices, while others won in spite of them. With byes picking up this week, and injuries mounting, lineup decisions will play a huge role in determining who makes the playoffs and who joins Belfer in the cellar.

Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.


Playoff Odds

After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
69% (Nice)(11/16) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

After the playoff seeding thread this week, it occurred to me that the changes to our playoff qualification process means that this section is less predictive than it's been in previous years. Regardless, this week is most important for the 3-2 teams, me and Marco, while it offers the last gasp for Weissbard as our sole 1-4 team.


Team of the Week - Marco

This is mainly due to his trades paying as immediate a benefit as I've ever seen. He turned Charles Clay (now out for multiple weeks), Denver's D (he already has a top 10 D/ST in the Chiefs), and 27 auction dollars into James White, Adam Thielen, and Jason Witten, whose 26.5 points factored big in his 12 point win over BAM. He now sits in the second Wild Card spot by 15 points, which is remarkable given his performance at the draft.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Weissbard starting Nelson Agholor over Jeremy Kerley

This was an obvious choice because Weissbard was literally asking people which one he should start on Sunday morning. He made the right choice, punctuated by a nasty Agholor juke on his long TD, and he's now in the win column. His team is still a joke (I legit have never heard of Corey Clement, yet Weiss was starting him), but at least he's not going 0-13.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Levine starting Latavius Murray over LeGarrette Blount

#Kursed. Chark West had the biggest day on Levine's bench, but he wasn't a realistic starter. Instead, Levine had the tough choice of Blount, who's top backups were injured, or Murray, who was newly promoted after injury. Murray's matchup was better, but the presence of McKinnon made the situation a little bit murky, especially on passing downs. Blount is usually TD-dependent, but without Smallwood and Sproles, the Eagles would have no choice but to give him the ball. I think this was ultimately a coin flip, but it was a costly choice for Levine. Luckily for him, the new playoff rules give him a 95 point lead for the 6th playoff spot, even if he loses close games every week.

Honorable mention to Barnard for bidding $69 for Aaron Jones, then benching him for Quizz.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman's Luck

Gutman won while scoring 58 points. His average opponent scores less than Belfer! He currently has the lead in a division with the highest scorer in the league, a super deep team that is destined for 7-6, and Alan and Weissbard. I highly doubt he can keep it up, especially with his RBs, but I thought that after Week 1 and he's gone 3-1 since then.


Biggest Matchup of Week 6 - Ajay vs. Barnard
Me and Z have a big matchup, but 1) I try not to put myself in this section and 2) Half his team is on a bye so I theoretically should get a relatively easy win. That leaves us with a divisional matchup that could seal the fate of the loser. Ajay's team has severely underproduced so far, but thanks to the league's second-easiest schedule (to Gutman), he still has two wins banked. As usual, Barnard has been perfectly mediocre, but his time with Quizz as a starter has run out, and he has enormous issues at RB2 and Flex. History tells us that there isn't a huge difference between 3-3 and 2-4, but with neither of these teams likely to earn the 6th seed in total points, this looks a lot like an elimination matchup. Ajay will get out to a nice lead with his TNF crew, and he also gets last licks with Sunday and/or Monday night players, but the easier matchups definitely go to Barnard. Honestly, the matchup probably comes down to Ty Montgomery. For the first time, I'm making a contingent prediction: If Montgomery is active, Ajay wins. If not, it's Barnard. Either way, you're both #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-4


Gambling Corner

NBA Win Total Bets
Celtics Under 55.5
Warriors Under 67.5
Nets Over 27.5
Hornets Over 42.5
Pistons Under 38.5
Pacers Over 31.5
76ers Under 41.5
Bucks Under 47.5
Grizzlies Under 37.5
Pelicans Over 39.5
Hawks Over 25.5
Mavericks Under 35.5
Jazz Over 41
Spurs Under 54.5
Blazers Under 42.5
Kings Under 27.5
Bulls Over 22
Raptors Under 48.5
Clippers Over 43.5
Lakers Under 33.5

NFL Week 6 Bets
Eagles (+3) at Panthers
Texans (-10) vs. Browns
Redskins (-10) vs. 49ers
Jaguars (-2) vs. Rams
Lines still not posted for Saints/Lions, Raiders/Chargers, and Titans/Colts. Blog will be updated if I bet on those.
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 14-9

NCAA Week 7 Bets
Florida State (-7) at Duke
Texas Tech (+4) at West Virginia
Oklahoma (-7) at Texas (neutral site)
Baylor (+26) at Oklahoma State
Oregon (+11) at Stanford
Last Week: 3-1-1
2017 Record: 11-10-1