Week 6 Recap

We're basically halfway through the regular season, so it's time to start taking a closer look at the playoff situation.

Playoff Odds

After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
69% (Nice)(11/16) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs

History shows that teams that are 4-2 or better have a good chance of making the playoffs, and what do you know? We have exactly 6 teams at 4-2 or better. However, the newly refined FALAFEL playoff rules put a wrench in those odds. The top 5 seeds will be the 3 division winners and top 2 Wild Cards, which probably correlate well with history. We currently have a tie at the top of all three divisions, which is fantastic and should create some nice races through the second half. For the coveted 6th seed, it's looking like a runaway for Levine right now. He's two game out of first in his division, and while Gutman's outlook is currently bleak, it's very possible that Levine ends up below .500. The teams that are currently 3-3 or worse should be rooting hard for Levine to improve his record and at least get a Wild Card, because only Reap is within 100 points of Levine for the 6th seed right now.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Esco
2. Bennett
3. Zacherman
4. Marco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine


Trade Recap
Barnard receives CJ Anderson, LeGarrette Blount, Jaron Brown, and Delanie Walker
Levine receives Jacquizz Rodgers, DeAndre Hopkins, and Greg Olsen
Lot of things going on here. In previous years, this trade would never have happened, because Levine would be too worried about his record to plan for the future. Instead, he has relative safety in at least the 6 seed, so he can afford to wait on Olsen. A playoff roster with Russ, Hunt/Ingram/Doug, Nuk/Keenan, and Olsen, along with a solid bench? We officially have a favorite this year. As for Barnard, he really had no choice. His RB situation was dire, and his TE injury luck has been brutal. He basically turned Hopkins into three starters, which is as good as you can do. I'm calling this a win-win.
Levine: A+
Barnard: B+


Team of the Week - Reap

I had mentally written off Reap's team after an extremely slow start, but he's somehow at 3-3 and just put up the most points in Week 6. He's unfortunately in a division with two 5-1 teams, but one of those teams just lost Zeke, and the other is Bennett, so he's still very much alive there. Worst case scenario, he's also the team best poised to take the sixth seed if Levine qualifies for the playoffs via division title or wild card. With the best RB duo in the league carrying an otherwise mediocre roster, Reap still looms as a potential playoff party crasher.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ravens D/ST over Jaguars D/ST
I haven't really brought this up, but my combo of D/STs are pretty much carrying me this year, and rank 1 and 3 in scoring so far at the position. My biggest problem, as it is with every other position for me, is picking which one to start. Up until Sunday I had Jacksonville starting, hoping to take advantage against Jared Goff and Co., but I made a last minute switch because I got scared of a Gurley game. It paid off with two punt return TDs that eventually carried me past Z.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer starting Jamison Crowder over Adrian Peterson
I promised Belfer he would get this section on Sunday, and it has to hurt seeing this decision keeping him winless. Ellington put up a surprising goose egg, but he was at least a defensible start. Crowder is borderline rosterable at this point, so I probably would have started multiple other options over him, but starting a newly acquired AP is something most of us wouldn't have done. And most of us would have been wrong, as AP turned back the clock for a huge day. Belfer, even if you don't win a game this year, we can at least look back and say that you (probably) won the AP/Foreman swap with Weissbard.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Bennett is 5-1
I honestly don't know how this happened. His roster is fine, but not spectacular. His schedule has been easy, but still more difficult than 4-2 Gutman and 3-3 Ajay. Yet if he beats me this week, he'll be tied for the best start in recent FALAFEL history. Which unfortunately brings me to the next section...


Biggest Matchup of Week 7 - Bennett vs. Kumpf
I hate putting myself in here, and I really hate writing about Bennett, but here we are. From a bye/injury perspective, we're about even, both missing 1-2 potential starters. From a matchup perspective, neither of us has an overly easy or difficult slate. Talent-wise he has the higher ceiling, but I have the higher floor. This is probably my toughest call of the year for multiple reasons, but the possibility of Jordan Reed scoring a game-winning TD against Bennett's Eagles on MNF also costing him a fantasy win is too good to pass up. Looks like I done #Kursed myself.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-4


Gambling Corner


NFL Week 7 Bets
Chiefs (-3) at Raiders
Rams (-3) vs. Cardinals
Steelers (-5) vs. Bengals
Patriots (-3) vs. Falcons
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 16-11

NCAA Week 8 Bets
Iowa State (+7) at Texas Tech
Miami (-14) vs. Syracuse
Oregon (+7) at UCLA
Mississippi State (-10) vs. Kentucky
Last Week: 0-4-1
2017 Record: 11-14-2