With the trade deadline less than a week away, it's time for my favorite post of the year. I have yet to predict an actual trade, but I have renewed faith this year for a few reasons. First, the QB situation is not as stratified as it was in the past. Trading the top QB for the 15th QB and a mediocre RB used to be unthinkable because the gap between someone like Rodgers and Eli was enormous. This year, it might be worth taking a slight hit at QB for depth elsewhere, because the talent level is still pretty high. Second, there are a lot of teams eyeing the last couple playoff spots. If we consider Zacherman, Weissbard, Gutman and myself as playoff locks (it would be a historical anomaly if any of us missed), that still leaves Levine, Barnard, Belfer, Marco and Bennett with legit shots at the last two spots with little to distinguish them from each other. That's a ripe situation for trades. And finally, we have Rivalry Week looming in Week 13. While it doesn't appear that Ajay, Alan, Esco, Reap and BAM have much to play for (other than what could end up being a close battle for the Shot Spot), they still have a chance to play spoiler and win $50 back. With all that said, let's get to some trades.
Trade Grade 8
Bennett receives Isaiah Crowell
Marco receives O.J. Howard
We start with a real trade, and another relatively minor one at that. I'd rather have these types of trades than no trades, but I'm hoping we can collectively step up our games in the next week. I give Bennett the edge here because he gave up a guy he would never start for a guy he hopefully doesn't have to, while Marco gave up a guy he hopefully doesn't have to start for a a guy he unfortunately has to. On to more exciting stuff...
Bennett Grade: B-
Marco Grade: C
Mock Trade 1
Gutman receives Deshaun Watson, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins
Weissbard receives Drew Brees, Kareem Hunt, Michael Thomas and Randall Cobb
BOOM! We start off with a bang and probably the least likely of these trades to occur. These two teams are playoff-bound thanks to the highest powered offenses in the league. This trade would be Gutman selling-high on Hunt's share of the KC offense while betting big on the Rams. For Weissbard, he would be giving up the single most reliable asset in fantasy football for an absolutely absurd top four with absolutely no depth behind it. I like this version better for Weissbard, but giving up Gurley would take some stones.
Mock Trade 2
Ajay receives Kirk Cousins, Alvin Kamara, and Keke Coutee
Marco receives Andrew Luck, Sony Michel, and T.Y. Hilton
This is another potential blockbuster, but I have a little more faith in it actually happening. Marco's team is insanely reliant on its RBs, and this would be a step towards balance in adding the Colts duo, along with Michel's upside. For Ajay, he gets a legit stud at RB, while downgrading elsewhere. He's only playing for Rivalry Week, so Kamara's big game potential might look better than hoping Luck can link up with Hilton.
Mock Trade 3
Kumpf receives Corey Clement and DeAndre Hopkins
Zacherman receives Marlon Mack and Emmanuel Sanders
Zacherman's team is absurdly good, so he can likely sit tight and feel fine. If he has a weakness, it's at RB, where White's workload could drop and Howard is very TD-reliant. Marlon Mack has been a stud the last couple of weeks, and would give Z way more upside at that spot. The downgrade from Hopkins to Sanders might seem big, but it's only been three points per game so far this season and Demaryius is now stealing Hopkins' targets instead of Sanders'. For me, I just like making trades and owning the entire backfields of mediocre running games.
Mock Trade 4
Esco receives Matt Stafford and Tevin Coleman
Levine receives Aaron Rodgers and Kenyan Drake
This is one of those QB-centric trades I mentioned earlier. Rodgers hasn't been as lights out as usual, but he's unquestionably an upgrade over Stafford. Coleman would sure up Esco's RB situation, while Levine can afford to downgrade to Drake while simultaneously betting that Miami figures out who their best RB is.
Mock Trade 5
Belfer receives David Johnson and Doug Martin
Reap receives LeVeon Bell and Mark Ingram
To be honest, I just want to see a trade between these two. But this one makes some sense, and it gives Belfer some certainty surrounding his RB spots, espeically if he believes Conner will have a role for the rest of the season. For Reap, he gets potential upside with Bell's return and Ingram gaining steam as the season wears on Kamara. But really, just want to see a reality show on how trade negotiations between Belfer and Reap would go.
Mock Trade 6
Alan receives Cooper Kupp
BAM receives A.J. Green
This trade is all about priorities. Alan needs to win out and score as many points as possible to have a chance at the playoffs. BAM's only consolation prize this year would be winning Rivalry Week against Bennett. With Green out for at least a few weeks, this gives Alan a life raft while potentially making BAM's cellar dweller a formidable Week 13 opponent.
Mock Trade 7
Barnard receives Isaiah Crowell and Josh Gordon
Bennnett receives Leonard Fournette and TJ Yeldon
These two teams are surprisingly still relevant, but entirely unthreatening. Barnard likely can't resist adding yet another Pats receiver to get those double TDs, and getting rid of his Jags-related headache would be another bonus. For Bennett, he gets to corner the backfield on a run-centric team and try to fix his pitiful RB situation, while not really hurting himself elsewhere. Also seeing Crowell traded again would make everyone happy.
Playoff Odds
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams make the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams make the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams make the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10
I'll take a more in-depth look at the various playoff races starting next week, but as mentioned above, the top 4 teams are pretty much locked in. This week the big gap is between 6-4 and 5-5, so the pressure is on the bubble teams. We could know a lot more next week, but considering none of those teams are playing each other, we may still have a logjam.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - The Landlord Bowl - Bennett vs. Gutman
A lot of teams have important matchups this week, but none of them are really facing each other. Marco and I are both pretty likely to make the playoffs, as he will lead his division even with a loss, and my point total has me as a virtual lock for the 6th seed at worst. That leaves Bennett and Gutman, which is really only interesting if Bennett wins. In that case, we could theoretically have six teams at 6-4 next week, which would make for a pretty crazy last three weeks.
This looks like a legit matchup as well, as bye weeks and injuries aren't a huge factor outside of Bennett's already weak RB situation. Gutman's team is crazy top-heavy, but his big three each get nice matchups and should put up their customary 60+ points. I don't love the rest of his roster, but he has enough to hit 90. For Bennett, depending on which RBs he suits up, 90 might be a stretch. I would love to root for chaos, but that would involve me losing, so I'll stick with picking Mara.
Pick: Gutman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 6-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/5
NFL Bets
Bears (-6) vs. Lions - Win
Redskins (+3) at Bucs - Win
Dolphins (+10) at Packers - Loss
Seahawks (+10) at Rams - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2018 Record: 25-18-4 (+3.38 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Duke (-10) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Mississippi State (+25) at Alabama - Win
Oklahoma State (+21) at Oklahoma - Win
Utah (-4) vs. Oregon - Win
Miami (+3) at Georgia Tech - Loss
Texas Tech (+2) vs. Texas - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2018 Record: 32-40-2 (-12.63 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Pacers (+2.5) vs. Rockets - Loss
Blazers (+3.5) vs. Bucks - Win
Magic (+4.5) vs. Pistons - Loss
Jazz (-9.5) vs. Mavericks - Win
76ers (+3.5) at Grizzlies - Loss
Celtics (+4) at Blazers - Loss
Last Week: 4-5
2018-19 Record: 15-14 (-1.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NCAA Bets
Iowa State (-6) vs. Missouri - Win
2018-19 Record: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Win
Southampton (Pick) vs. Watford - Push
Huddersfield (+0.5) vs. West Ham - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 15-15-5 (-4.12 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Manchester City (-250) vs. Manchester United - Win
Arsenal (-165) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-2.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Schalke 04 (-1) vs. Galatasaray - Win
Lokomotiv (+1.5) at Porto - Loss
Valencia (-1) vs. Young Boys - Win
Benfica (Pick) vs. Ajax - Push
Real Madrid (-2) at Viktoria Plzen - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-7-3 (+3.43 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Monaco (-120) vs. Club Brugge - Loss
Tottenham (-265) vs. PSV - Win
Atletico Madrid (-110) vs. Borussia Dortmund - Win
Lyon (100) vs. Hoffenheim - Loss
Last Week 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-6 (-4.38 units)
Thursday, November 8, 2018
Thursday, November 1, 2018
Week 8 Recap
We're about to enter the home stretch of the season, and things are finally rounding into shape. There are three teams with over 900 points, while the rest of the league other than Levine is under 800, and Esco/BAM sit under 700. The next five weeks will be all about sorting out the middle class and determining who gets the last 2-3 playoff spots.
Trade Grade 7
Barnard receives Dion Lewis
Belfer receives Jared Goff
Well this was the most obvious trade of the year. Barnard had been sitting on a tough QB decision each week, and continues to have a hilarious roster of fat RBs and white WRs. This lets him start his boyfriend without guilt, and also brings up a new decision between Lewis and Henry, which I'm sure he will pick wrong each week. I couldn't be happier. As for Belf, he continues to build a seriously strong team. More on that below.
Barnard Grade: B-
Belfer Grade: A-
Playoff Odds
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams make the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams make the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams make the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams make the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
We're guaranteed to see another record fall, as the winner of Weissbard/Zacherman will be our first 8-1 team in the ESPN era, but there will be plenty of time to talk about that later. This section is all about that absurd 70% gap between 6-3 both 5-4 and 4-5. We have five teams at 4-4, and history tells us that win or lose, it likely doesn't make that much of a difference this week. But for our 5-3 teams, a win and a loss has historically been huge. With my team already leading the division, and projected for an absurd 117 points by ESPN this week against lowly BAM, that leaves Gutman as the team with the most to gain or lose. He faces off with Reap who, along with Alan, are clinging to relevance above the 3-6 death line.
Team of the Week - Belfer
With a whopping three teams within two points of each other in the 130s, I'm giving this to the team that remade itself on the fly, and has renewed playoff hope. Now sitting at .500, as well as 5th in scoring, Belf's team is now pretty deep, and after his trades, he has star power as well. As one of the current top three teams, I would not like to see this team in the playoffs.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - N/A
Only one close matchup this week, and it was won by a BAM team that is already eliminated.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Esco starting Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin over Larry Fitzgerald
A coin flip decision, but the old man would have kept Esco's seasons alive. Instead he's nursing a 12-point lead over BAM for Shot Spot.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Weissbard vs. Zacherman
I feel like one of these two teams has been in this spot almost every week, but they're both 7-1 and score a lot of points, so what do you want from me? In addition to the battle for elusive 8-1, the winner here also takes the lead in their division, which could end up mattering if they both have late-season swoons. On the flip side, the loser is likely to only be a game up on me and/or Gutman, which makes the bye no sure thing. Those are the stakes.
As for the actual matchup, it might not end up being as close as we all would like. Bye weeks are impacting both rosters, but Weiss losing Saquon and Tate dwarf Zacherman losing Boyd, Ebron and the Jags D. The active rosters don't look much better for Weissbard, as his best matchup is Sammy in Cleveland, but that means Z gets Mahomes scoring even more in The Land. Thursday Night Football is Weissbard's best shot at a win, as 30+ points from Raheem Mostert and Jared Cook...sorry I couldn't even make it through that sentence. Say hello to our new leader.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 5-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/22
NFL Bets
Redskins (-1) vs. Falcons - Loss
Vikings (-4) vs. Lions - Win
Panthers (-6) vs. Bucs - Win
Broncos (Pick) vs. Texans - Loss
Patriots (-6) vs. Packers - Win
Last Week: 2-2
2018 Record: 22-17-4 (+2.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NFL Prop Bet Check-in
The Good
Packers under 10 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
The Bad
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Texans to win the Super Bowl
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving (currently 21st, 373 yards behind leader)
The Ugly
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Falcons to win the Super Bowl
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing (LOL)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing (LOL)
NCAA Football Bets
West Virginia (+2) at Texas - Win
Iowa (+3) at Purdue - Win
Penn State (+11) at Michigan - Loss
LSU (+15) vs. Alabama - Loss
Texas Tech (+14) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Last Week: 3-3
2018 Record: 29-37-2 (-12.17 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
I also bet on Ohio State to win it all at +1200.
NBA Bets
Nets (+2) at Knicks - Loss
T-Wolves (+2) vs. Lakers - Win
Celtics (-7) vs. Pistons - Loss
Lakers (-6) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Nets (+4.5) vs. Rockets - Loss
Thunder (+3) at Wizards - Win
Jazz (-6) vs. Grizzlies - Loss
Pacers (+3) vs. Celtics - Win
Nets (+4) vs. 76ers - Win
Last Week: 5-2
2018-2019 Record: 13-10 (+1.10 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (+1) at Everton - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Watford - Win
Burnley (+1) at West Ham - Loss
Arsenal (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
Tottenham (Pick) at Wolves - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-15-4 (-5.76 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-9 (-1.70 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-6-2 (+1.59 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-0
Final 2018 Record: 33-44 (-4.39 units)
Updated Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)
Trade Grade 7
Barnard receives Dion Lewis
Belfer receives Jared Goff
Well this was the most obvious trade of the year. Barnard had been sitting on a tough QB decision each week, and continues to have a hilarious roster of fat RBs and white WRs. This lets him start his boyfriend without guilt, and also brings up a new decision between Lewis and Henry, which I'm sure he will pick wrong each week. I couldn't be happier. As for Belf, he continues to build a seriously strong team. More on that below.
Barnard Grade: B-
Belfer Grade: A-
Playoff Odds
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams make the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams make the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams make the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams make the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
We're guaranteed to see another record fall, as the winner of Weissbard/Zacherman will be our first 8-1 team in the ESPN era, but there will be plenty of time to talk about that later. This section is all about that absurd 70% gap between 6-3 both 5-4 and 4-5. We have five teams at 4-4, and history tells us that win or lose, it likely doesn't make that much of a difference this week. But for our 5-3 teams, a win and a loss has historically been huge. With my team already leading the division, and projected for an absurd 117 points by ESPN this week against lowly BAM, that leaves Gutman as the team with the most to gain or lose. He faces off with Reap who, along with Alan, are clinging to relevance above the 3-6 death line.
Team of the Week - Belfer
With a whopping three teams within two points of each other in the 130s, I'm giving this to the team that remade itself on the fly, and has renewed playoff hope. Now sitting at .500, as well as 5th in scoring, Belf's team is now pretty deep, and after his trades, he has star power as well. As one of the current top three teams, I would not like to see this team in the playoffs.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - N/A
Only one close matchup this week, and it was won by a BAM team that is already eliminated.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Esco starting Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin over Larry Fitzgerald
A coin flip decision, but the old man would have kept Esco's seasons alive. Instead he's nursing a 12-point lead over BAM for Shot Spot.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Weissbard vs. Zacherman
I feel like one of these two teams has been in this spot almost every week, but they're both 7-1 and score a lot of points, so what do you want from me? In addition to the battle for elusive 8-1, the winner here also takes the lead in their division, which could end up mattering if they both have late-season swoons. On the flip side, the loser is likely to only be a game up on me and/or Gutman, which makes the bye no sure thing. Those are the stakes.
As for the actual matchup, it might not end up being as close as we all would like. Bye weeks are impacting both rosters, but Weiss losing Saquon and Tate dwarf Zacherman losing Boyd, Ebron and the Jags D. The active rosters don't look much better for Weissbard, as his best matchup is Sammy in Cleveland, but that means Z gets Mahomes scoring even more in The Land. Thursday Night Football is Weissbard's best shot at a win, as 30+ points from Raheem Mostert and Jared Cook...sorry I couldn't even make it through that sentence. Say hello to our new leader.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 5-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/22
NFL Bets
Redskins (-1) vs. Falcons - Loss
Vikings (-4) vs. Lions - Win
Panthers (-6) vs. Bucs - Win
Broncos (Pick) vs. Texans - Loss
Patriots (-6) vs. Packers - Win
Last Week: 2-2
2018 Record: 22-17-4 (+2.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NFL Prop Bet Check-in
The Good
Packers under 10 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
The Bad
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Texans to win the Super Bowl
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving (currently 21st, 373 yards behind leader)
The Ugly
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Falcons to win the Super Bowl
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing (LOL)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing (LOL)
NCAA Football Bets
West Virginia (+2) at Texas - Win
Iowa (+3) at Purdue - Win
Penn State (+11) at Michigan - Loss
LSU (+15) vs. Alabama - Loss
Texas Tech (+14) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Last Week: 3-3
2018 Record: 29-37-2 (-12.17 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
I also bet on Ohio State to win it all at +1200.
NBA Bets
Nets (+2) at Knicks - Loss
T-Wolves (+2) vs. Lakers - Win
Celtics (-7) vs. Pistons - Loss
Lakers (-6) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Nets (+4.5) vs. Rockets - Loss
Thunder (+3) at Wizards - Win
Jazz (-6) vs. Grizzlies - Loss
Pacers (+3) vs. Celtics - Win
Nets (+4) vs. 76ers - Win
Last Week: 5-2
2018-2019 Record: 13-10 (+1.10 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (+1) at Everton - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Watford - Win
Burnley (+1) at West Ham - Loss
Arsenal (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
Tottenham (Pick) at Wolves - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-15-4 (-5.76 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-9 (-1.70 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-6-2 (+1.59 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-0
Final 2018 Record: 33-44 (-4.39 units)
Updated Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)
Thursday, October 25, 2018
Week 7 Recap
I'm not sure if it's the increase in scoring overall that's causing more variance, or if our league is really the have's and the have-nots, but we're really lacking close matchups this year. Esco text me at halftime of the early games on Sunday saying "At least I don't have to check the score any more." And he wasn't wrong, as I had about a 50-point lead from that point on. The same situation basically went on for Ajay, Bennett, and Alan, and the closest matchup was still over 14 points. It seems like there are a few huge performances every week, but other than Gurley, it's hard to guess where they're coming from. I don't know what to do about this situation, but it might make sense for teams to make more trades. If Team A's 4th receiver has a great matchup, but they have a terrible RB2, a trade with Team B even just to get a good lineup in for one week is more appealing than it was in the past. We're less than three weeks from the trade deadline, and I see a lot of unabalanced teams out there, so let's get some movement going.
Trade Grade 6
Gutman receives Randall Cobb
Kumpf receives Nyheim Hines
Speaking of exciting, league-altering trades! Not a lot to say here. I get Mack's handcuff, Gutman gets to forget that he straight up dropped Mack. Gutman gets yet another option for his revolving WR2 position, I get to avoid deciding between Cobb and Allison. If either of us really needs to start one of these guys, something has gone wrong.
Gutman Grade: C
Kumpf Grade: C
Playoff Odds
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams make the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams make the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams make the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
Down goes Weissbard! He was the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and it took Alan as our brown knight to prevent further damage. After just one loss, he's shockingly in danger of losing his lead in the division, though the bye seems safe. Gutman is also in good shape, and despite being barely over .500, my point total should at worst get me the 6th seed. Outside of those four teams, it's all up in the air.
On the flip side, Ajay's absurd D/ST performance gave him a breath of life, but his current roster does not look ready to compete this week, and he's in must-win mode. Reap and Esco join him on life support this week, barely dangling above BAM-land.
Team of the Week - Alan
When you take down a team that was previously 6-0, you get this spot every time. I didn't like Alan's team after the draft, and I don't like it now, but both his floor and ceiling are higher than I expected. Considering he started multiple non-elite tight ends, owned three Buffalo Bills, and started the Colts D (who was hilariously playing said Bills), it's pretty incredible that he got the high score of the week. He's also only a game back of a free-falling Marco in the division, and gets to face a Zeke-less Kumpf team that might want to see Alan's team make the playoffs. Masandiassance Part Two?
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Ajay starting Broncos D/ST
In most weeks, starting a defense that puts up 10 points is considered a win. For Ajay, a performance like that would have been a loss. Instead he won by over 20. Thanks Josh Rosen.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Antonio Callaway over Dion Lewis
I was very high on Sanu last week if he was healthy, and Ridley was out. Only half of those things happened, but I was still on the Sanu train. I was not on the Antonio Callaway train, however, and I have to assume this was a hedge on Sanu being ruled out on Monday? Tough break either way, and the Titans are miserable to watch, but Antonio Callaway costing you the playoffs will be potentially tough to swallow in six weeks.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Bennett vs. Zacherman
This could have been a truly great matchup as Bennett's team is shockingly formidable. However, his roster takes a massive hit in the downgrade from Matty Ice to Flacco on the bye, as well as his Eagles traveling to Jacksonville. On the flip side, Z's Chiefs have to take on a surging Denver D, and while I don't expect that to be a huge issue, it's not easy street. The biggest stakes here are division-related. Both these teams are currently tied for first, and while Z should be safe either way, the bye is a potential concern with a loss. Bennett's range of outcomes is far greater, so this matchup could go a long way towards determining the rest of his season. I don't think things look great.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 4-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/22
NFL Bets
Dolphins (+8) at Texans - Loss
Steelers (-8) vs. Browns - Win
Seahawks (+3) at Lions - Win
Rams (-9) vs. Packers - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2018 Record: 19-15-4 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Minnesota (+3) vs. Indiana - Win
Texas Tech (+4) at Iowa State - Loss
Virginia (-9) vs. North Carolina - Win
Duke (-3) at Pittsburgh - Loss
Kentucky (+7) at Missouri - Win
Washington (-11) at California - Loss
Last Week: 0-6
2018 Record: 26-35-2 (-12.71 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Pelicans (-6) vs. Clippers - Win
Nets (+4.5) at Cavs - Win
Pacers (+3.5) at Spurs - Win
Raptors (-11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Kings (+5) vs. Wizards - Win
Pelicans (+3.5) vs. Jazz - Loss
Spurs (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Win
Last Week: 4-3
2018-2019 Record: 9-5 (+2.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Loss
Brighton (Pick) vs. Wolves - Win
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Manchester United (-0.5) vs. Everton - Win
Tottenham (+0.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-14-4 (-6.11 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Leicester City (+120) vs. West Ham - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-9 (-1.70 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Ajax (-0.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Monaco (+0.5) at Club Brugge - Win
Barcelona (-1) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Atletico Madrid (Pick) at Borussia Dortmund - Loss
Schalke 04 (Pick) at Galatasaray - Push
Lokomotiv Moscow (+0.5) vs. FC Porto - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-6-2 (+1.59 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Valencia (+115) at Young Boys - Loss
Tottenham (-105) at PSV - Loss
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Red Sox (+137) at Dodgers - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018 Record: 33-44 (-4.39 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Trade Grade 6
Gutman receives Randall Cobb
Kumpf receives Nyheim Hines
Speaking of exciting, league-altering trades! Not a lot to say here. I get Mack's handcuff, Gutman gets to forget that he straight up dropped Mack. Gutman gets yet another option for his revolving WR2 position, I get to avoid deciding between Cobb and Allison. If either of us really needs to start one of these guys, something has gone wrong.
Gutman Grade: C
Kumpf Grade: C
Playoff Odds
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams make the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams make the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams make the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
Down goes Weissbard! He was the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and it took Alan as our brown knight to prevent further damage. After just one loss, he's shockingly in danger of losing his lead in the division, though the bye seems safe. Gutman is also in good shape, and despite being barely over .500, my point total should at worst get me the 6th seed. Outside of those four teams, it's all up in the air.
On the flip side, Ajay's absurd D/ST performance gave him a breath of life, but his current roster does not look ready to compete this week, and he's in must-win mode. Reap and Esco join him on life support this week, barely dangling above BAM-land.
Team of the Week - Alan
When you take down a team that was previously 6-0, you get this spot every time. I didn't like Alan's team after the draft, and I don't like it now, but both his floor and ceiling are higher than I expected. Considering he started multiple non-elite tight ends, owned three Buffalo Bills, and started the Colts D (who was hilariously playing said Bills), it's pretty incredible that he got the high score of the week. He's also only a game back of a free-falling Marco in the division, and gets to face a Zeke-less Kumpf team that might want to see Alan's team make the playoffs. Masandiassance Part Two?
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Ajay starting Broncos D/ST
In most weeks, starting a defense that puts up 10 points is considered a win. For Ajay, a performance like that would have been a loss. Instead he won by over 20. Thanks Josh Rosen.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Antonio Callaway over Dion Lewis
I was very high on Sanu last week if he was healthy, and Ridley was out. Only half of those things happened, but I was still on the Sanu train. I was not on the Antonio Callaway train, however, and I have to assume this was a hedge on Sanu being ruled out on Monday? Tough break either way, and the Titans are miserable to watch, but Antonio Callaway costing you the playoffs will be potentially tough to swallow in six weeks.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Bennett vs. Zacherman
This could have been a truly great matchup as Bennett's team is shockingly formidable. However, his roster takes a massive hit in the downgrade from Matty Ice to Flacco on the bye, as well as his Eagles traveling to Jacksonville. On the flip side, Z's Chiefs have to take on a surging Denver D, and while I don't expect that to be a huge issue, it's not easy street. The biggest stakes here are division-related. Both these teams are currently tied for first, and while Z should be safe either way, the bye is a potential concern with a loss. Bennett's range of outcomes is far greater, so this matchup could go a long way towards determining the rest of his season. I don't think things look great.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 4-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/22
NFL Bets
Dolphins (+8) at Texans - Loss
Steelers (-8) vs. Browns - Win
Seahawks (+3) at Lions - Win
Rams (-9) vs. Packers - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2018 Record: 19-15-4 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Minnesota (+3) vs. Indiana - Win
Texas Tech (+4) at Iowa State - Loss
Virginia (-9) vs. North Carolina - Win
Duke (-3) at Pittsburgh - Loss
Kentucky (+7) at Missouri - Win
Washington (-11) at California - Loss
Last Week: 0-6
2018 Record: 26-35-2 (-12.71 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Pelicans (-6) vs. Clippers - Win
Nets (+4.5) at Cavs - Win
Pacers (+3.5) at Spurs - Win
Raptors (-11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Kings (+5) vs. Wizards - Win
Pelicans (+3.5) vs. Jazz - Loss
Spurs (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Win
Last Week: 4-3
2018-2019 Record: 9-5 (+2.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Loss
Brighton (Pick) vs. Wolves - Win
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Manchester United (-0.5) vs. Everton - Win
Tottenham (+0.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-14-4 (-6.11 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Leicester City (+120) vs. West Ham - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-9 (-1.70 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Ajax (-0.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Monaco (+0.5) at Club Brugge - Win
Barcelona (-1) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Atletico Madrid (Pick) at Borussia Dortmund - Loss
Schalke 04 (Pick) at Galatasaray - Push
Lokomotiv Moscow (+0.5) vs. FC Porto - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-6-2 (+1.59 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Valencia (+115) at Young Boys - Loss
Tottenham (-105) at PSV - Loss
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Red Sox (+137) at Dodgers - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018 Record: 33-44 (-4.39 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Week 6 Recap
We're 6 weeks in and we finally know some stuff! Marco is great at drafting divisions, Esco is terrible, and Levine is perfectly average. I guess that doesn't mean all that much, but at this point it is indisputable. For as many points as have been scored this year, it does seem kind of like we've known the playoff teams since Week 1, and not all that much has changed. We also haven't seen too much money spent on the waiver wire, which might end up looking foolish at the end of the year when we all look like Barnard on draft day in terms of leftover money (and might explain the price for D/ST's on the wire). On the plus side, we've seen almost one trade per week, which is fantastic, and will hopefully keep the pace as we get closer to the trade deadline. We start by looking at only the second deal this year that didn't involve me or Marco...
Trade Grade 5
Ajay receives Sony Michel and Ronald Jones
Belfer receives LeVeon Bell and John Conner
On the surface, I understand why Ajay had to make a move. He's in dire straits, and with the Steelers on a bye, he needed a startable RB. He got one of those in Michel, who is likely a top 10 back moving forward, and while Jones has been an afterthought so far, he's at least a handcuff.
However, from Belfer's perspective one of the following scenarios is likely to happen:
1) Bell comes back in the next couple of weeks, relegates Conner to the bench, and resumes his post as a top 3 fantasy RB.
2) Bell gets traded to an RB-needy team (potentially the Bucs, which would really be a kick in the balls for Ajay), and both Conner and Bell are top 10 fantasy RBs.
3) Bell and Conner split time in Pittsburgh.
Either of the first two scenarios make this trade a huge win for Belfer. Even the third scenario likely makes Bell a starting RB, and Conner potentially flex-worthy. I just don't see the downside for Belf.
Ajay Grade: C
Belfer Grade: A
Playoff Odds
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs
The underdog story continues! Weissbard is officially the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and has a chance to do the same to the 7-0 barrier. Standing in his way is a less than formidable Alan team, but a brutal Marco/Z stretch awaits Weiss starting next week. At the other end of the spectrum, both Ajay and BAM get the Done Chain officially, but even our 2-4 teams still have a chance based on league history.
The big gap this week is predictably between 4-3 and 3-4, yet none of our 3-3 teams are facing each other. We do have a potential Loser Leaves Town Match, but that has more to do with the division breakdown than the strength of either team. More on that in a minute.
Team of the Week - Esco
Deep into the 4th quarter of MNF, it looked like Esco was about to fall to an essentially eliminated 1-5, while Barnard would improbably take the division lead. Enter Aaron Rodgers, who lit the world on fire and saved the day. After last week's lineup debacle, Esco didn't do too much better this week, and Aaron Jones over Matt Breida may have driven him to suicide if Rodgers didn't take over. He's definitely not out of the woods yet, and his bye-ridden roster takes on the league's top scorer this week, but he got a stay of execution for at least one week.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Reap starting Latavius Murray over Lamar Miller
In hindsight, maybe Reap should have just traded Miller to BAM so we could all see the epic Old Bay snort. Miller is the ultimate frustrating fantasy RB, where he's never someone you feel great about starting, but he's always someone you might regret benching. This week Reap chose right, and got the added benefit of having Lat Murray run wild on Marco's team that was forced to start Isaiah Crowell because Dalvin Cook was hurt. Well done Reaper.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - BAM :(
Back to back weeks of the unhappy face in this section, as BAM's season just fell apart this week. Losing by 1.4 is never fun, but the bench performances of ARob, Duke and Gore make it even worse. To add injury to insult, Cooper Kupp is banged up, making a sure fire trade win look a little bit more shaky moving forward. It's crazy to say, but a team with Russ, OBJ and Gronk are essentially eliminated 6 weeks in with no missed games between those guys.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Belfer vs. Gutman
Huge divisional matchup alert! Belf doesn't get to bust out his new toy(s) this week, and he loses AB to the bye as well, making this a shell of the team that should be very intriguing down the stretch. On the other side, fatherhood has done nothing to slow down Gutman's team, and he's shockingly undefeated with Mara running his team. The talent edge definitely goes to Gut this week, but with Brees and Mike Thomas running into a tough D in Baltimore, while Baker and Evans engage in a shootout, this will be closer than expected. I never thought I'd say this, but the matchup weirdly comes down to Mohamed Sanu. If he plays and Ridley is out, Belf is favored. If he's out or Ridley plays, then I'm leaning Gutman. Belf can't wait until MNF to make this call, so I'm gonna stick with Mara.
Pick: Gutman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/15
NFL Bets
Bucs (-3) vs. Browns - Push
Dolphins (+3) vs. Lions - Loss
Jets (+4) vs. Vikings - Loss
Bears (+3) vs. Patriots - Loss
Chiefs (-6) vs. Bengals - Win
Last Week: 3-0-1
2018 Record: 17-13-4 (+1.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Cincinnati (+4) at Temple - Loss
Syracuse (-8) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Minnesota (+4) at Nebraska - Loss
Wake Forest (+11) at Florida State - Loss
Memphis (+10) at Missouri - Loss
Kentucky (-11) vs. Vanderbilt - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2018 Record: 23-32-2 (-12.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Magic (+3) vs. Heat - Win
Hornets (+3) vs. Bucks - Win
Pelicans (+8) at Rockets - Win
Lakers (+3) at Blazers - Loss
Magic (+3) vs. Hornets - Loss
Jazz (+3) vs. Warriors - Win
Lakers (+4) vs. Rockets - Loss
2018-2019 Record: 4-3 (+0.56 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NBA Win Total Bets
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Watford (+425) at Wolves - Win
Crystal Palace (+350) at Everton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-8 (-0.7 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Trade Grade 5
Ajay receives Sony Michel and Ronald Jones
Belfer receives LeVeon Bell and John Conner
On the surface, I understand why Ajay had to make a move. He's in dire straits, and with the Steelers on a bye, he needed a startable RB. He got one of those in Michel, who is likely a top 10 back moving forward, and while Jones has been an afterthought so far, he's at least a handcuff.
However, from Belfer's perspective one of the following scenarios is likely to happen:
1) Bell comes back in the next couple of weeks, relegates Conner to the bench, and resumes his post as a top 3 fantasy RB.
2) Bell gets traded to an RB-needy team (potentially the Bucs, which would really be a kick in the balls for Ajay), and both Conner and Bell are top 10 fantasy RBs.
3) Bell and Conner split time in Pittsburgh.
Either of the first two scenarios make this trade a huge win for Belfer. Even the third scenario likely makes Bell a starting RB, and Conner potentially flex-worthy. I just don't see the downside for Belf.
Ajay Grade: C
Belfer Grade: A
Playoff Odds
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs
The underdog story continues! Weissbard is officially the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and has a chance to do the same to the 7-0 barrier. Standing in his way is a less than formidable Alan team, but a brutal Marco/Z stretch awaits Weiss starting next week. At the other end of the spectrum, both Ajay and BAM get the Done Chain officially, but even our 2-4 teams still have a chance based on league history.
The big gap this week is predictably between 4-3 and 3-4, yet none of our 3-3 teams are facing each other. We do have a potential Loser Leaves Town Match, but that has more to do with the division breakdown than the strength of either team. More on that in a minute.
Team of the Week - Esco
Deep into the 4th quarter of MNF, it looked like Esco was about to fall to an essentially eliminated 1-5, while Barnard would improbably take the division lead. Enter Aaron Rodgers, who lit the world on fire and saved the day. After last week's lineup debacle, Esco didn't do too much better this week, and Aaron Jones over Matt Breida may have driven him to suicide if Rodgers didn't take over. He's definitely not out of the woods yet, and his bye-ridden roster takes on the league's top scorer this week, but he got a stay of execution for at least one week.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Reap starting Latavius Murray over Lamar Miller
In hindsight, maybe Reap should have just traded Miller to BAM so we could all see the epic Old Bay snort. Miller is the ultimate frustrating fantasy RB, where he's never someone you feel great about starting, but he's always someone you might regret benching. This week Reap chose right, and got the added benefit of having Lat Murray run wild on Marco's team that was forced to start Isaiah Crowell because Dalvin Cook was hurt. Well done Reaper.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - BAM :(
Back to back weeks of the unhappy face in this section, as BAM's season just fell apart this week. Losing by 1.4 is never fun, but the bench performances of ARob, Duke and Gore make it even worse. To add injury to insult, Cooper Kupp is banged up, making a sure fire trade win look a little bit more shaky moving forward. It's crazy to say, but a team with Russ, OBJ and Gronk are essentially eliminated 6 weeks in with no missed games between those guys.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Belfer vs. Gutman
Huge divisional matchup alert! Belf doesn't get to bust out his new toy(s) this week, and he loses AB to the bye as well, making this a shell of the team that should be very intriguing down the stretch. On the other side, fatherhood has done nothing to slow down Gutman's team, and he's shockingly undefeated with Mara running his team. The talent edge definitely goes to Gut this week, but with Brees and Mike Thomas running into a tough D in Baltimore, while Baker and Evans engage in a shootout, this will be closer than expected. I never thought I'd say this, but the matchup weirdly comes down to Mohamed Sanu. If he plays and Ridley is out, Belf is favored. If he's out or Ridley plays, then I'm leaning Gutman. Belf can't wait until MNF to make this call, so I'm gonna stick with Mara.
Pick: Gutman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/15
NFL Bets
Bucs (-3) vs. Browns - Push
Dolphins (+3) vs. Lions - Loss
Jets (+4) vs. Vikings - Loss
Bears (+3) vs. Patriots - Loss
Chiefs (-6) vs. Bengals - Win
Last Week: 3-0-1
2018 Record: 17-13-4 (+1.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Cincinnati (+4) at Temple - Loss
Syracuse (-8) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Minnesota (+4) at Nebraska - Loss
Wake Forest (+11) at Florida State - Loss
Memphis (+10) at Missouri - Loss
Kentucky (-11) vs. Vanderbilt - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2018 Record: 23-32-2 (-12.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Magic (+3) vs. Heat - Win
Hornets (+3) vs. Bucks - Win
Pelicans (+8) at Rockets - Win
Lakers (+3) at Blazers - Loss
Magic (+3) vs. Hornets - Loss
Jazz (+3) vs. Warriors - Win
Lakers (+4) vs. Rockets - Loss
2018-2019 Record: 4-3 (+0.56 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NBA Win Total Bets
Hawks over 23.5
Celtics under 59
Nets over 32
Hornets over 35.5
Mavs under 35.5
Warriors under 62.5
Rockets under 56.5
Pacers under 47.5
Lakers under 48.5
Wolves over 41.5
Magic over 31
Sixers under 53.5
Spurs under 43.5
Jazz over 49.5
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Watford (+425) at Wolves - Win
Crystal Palace (+350) at Everton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-8 (-0.7 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Week 5 Recap
After 5 weeks, things have never been weirder in FALAFEL. Of our 7 teams that are 1-4 or 2-3, all of them except for Bennett have a Chef's Coat. On the flip side, the 7 teams above .500 (other than Levine), have never tasted fantasy glory. This is personified by Fireball Dan, who is just the third team in the last 6 years to hit 5-0 despite flirting with the Long Line for the last few years. Those teams have never missed the playoffs, so the pressure is on our diminutive leader to not fuck this all up. The rest of us are a jumble of mediocrity, and other than Marco, the division races will be crazy and/or sad. We're nearly halfway through the year, and we may know less about this league than when we left Baltimore.
Trade Grade 4
Esco receives Chris Godwin and Ito Smith
Marco receives Isaiah Crowell and Joe Flacco
Not the most exciting trade in the world, but I grade them all. I have to say I don't really understand this for Marco. He's set at RB, with a clear need for reliable WR starters. I'm not saying Godwin filled that need, but having an option at receiver is better than not having one. Crowell is likely the best player in the deal, which is presumably why Marco pulled the trigger, but I would expect another trade in his future. For Esco, this was about removing a frustrating player more than anything else. His season is mostly lost, so getting rid of a problematic decision can be cathartic in a way. Godwin immediately becomes a flex option for him, and Ito provides some Freeman insurance. This trade likely will have no impact on the results of this season, but I like it a little bit more for Esco.
Esco Grade: B-
Marco Grade: C+
Playoff Odds
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams make the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams make the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams make the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 1-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams make the playoffs
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs
These numbers are extremely interesting this week, but it's important to remember that we changed our playoff qualification standards last year, so the potential for outliers is higher than it seems. That said, Weissbard has the chance to become the first 6-0 team in the ESPN era (Zacherman started something like 11-0 back in 2010, and I believe Ajay went undefeated until the finals in the Cortesian Era). Standing in his way is my team, fresh off a debilitating loss to Barnard's sorry excuse for a team, but still leading the league in scoring. That's not the matchup of the week (more on that in a minute), but it has the potential to set the tone for the rest of the season.
This week will be huge for any team with either 3 or 1 wins, as it sets the 3-win teams up for the playoffs, and keeps a glimmer of hope for the 1-win teams. We'll likely be putting the Done Chain on at least one team this week (Spoiler Alert: It's Reap).
Team of the Week - Belfer
I have to say, I was terrified at the thought of Z going undefeated. Of our previously 0-loss teams, his seemed the most complete, and immune to a one-week slump. And while he still put up 110, it wasn't enough to stop The Ghost of Nick Joseph. The phenomenally named and avatared Team Belfer showed up big and saved this league from being crushed under a pinball machine. The fact that he did so with his starting WR and TE on a bye is even more impressive. I don't know that I see Belf as a playoff team, but a lineup of Baker/Ingram/Sony/Evans/AB/Burton is nothing to scoff at. He's a flex away from being a true threat.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Mohamed Sanu Sr. over Mike Williams
I have to say I disagreed with this move, but it paid off in spades for our Team of the Week. Honorable mention goes to Barnard for starting Brady over Goff, but lets be real, every time the Pats score Barnard jerks off to a screenshot of Tom vs. Time with his face photoshopped over Brady's son's face during their epic kiss.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Esco :(
I'm not saying starting Westbrook over Drake or Crowell was a dumb move, but watching how things turned out I can't help but think his team is just cursed this year. As we all saw this week, he doesn't even really have trade options outside of maybe Rodgers? This went from a frisky deep team to a lost season before any of us even realized there was a problem.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Zacherman vs. Levine
There will be fireworks in the Kumpf vs. Weiss matchup, but the two of us are already leading our divisions and have the two highest point totals by a long shot. We're both incredibly likely to make the playoffs. Levine and Z are right there as well, but the loser of this matchup could be in danger of falling into the fringe playoff category. From a bye perspective, Levine losing Stafford and replacing him with Mariota might be enough to swing things to Z from the start. But I see a massive Julio game coming and Levine does get last licks with Adams, so it likely comes down to SNF. If Belichick can't solve Mahomes and Co., then Z likely gets 60+ from that game, which should be enough to give him the win.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/8
NFL Bets
Dolphins (+3) vs. Bears - Win
Chargers (-1) at Browns - Win
Falcons (-3) vs. Bucs - Win
Chiefs (+3) at Patriots - Push
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 16-10-3 (+3.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Texas Tech (+7) at TCU - Win
Florida (-7) vs. Vanderbilt - Win
Northwestern (-4) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Penn State (-13) vs. Michigan State - Loss
Washington (-3) at Oregon - Loss
Virginia Tech (-6) at North Carolina - Loss
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 23-26-2 (-6.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
I also put some money on Oklahoma to win the National Championship at +4500.
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-7 (-3.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Trade Grade 4
Esco receives Chris Godwin and Ito Smith
Marco receives Isaiah Crowell and Joe Flacco
Not the most exciting trade in the world, but I grade them all. I have to say I don't really understand this for Marco. He's set at RB, with a clear need for reliable WR starters. I'm not saying Godwin filled that need, but having an option at receiver is better than not having one. Crowell is likely the best player in the deal, which is presumably why Marco pulled the trigger, but I would expect another trade in his future. For Esco, this was about removing a frustrating player more than anything else. His season is mostly lost, so getting rid of a problematic decision can be cathartic in a way. Godwin immediately becomes a flex option for him, and Ito provides some Freeman insurance. This trade likely will have no impact on the results of this season, but I like it a little bit more for Esco.
Esco Grade: B-
Marco Grade: C+
Playoff Odds
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams make the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams make the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams make the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 1-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams make the playoffs
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs
These numbers are extremely interesting this week, but it's important to remember that we changed our playoff qualification standards last year, so the potential for outliers is higher than it seems. That said, Weissbard has the chance to become the first 6-0 team in the ESPN era (Zacherman started something like 11-0 back in 2010, and I believe Ajay went undefeated until the finals in the Cortesian Era). Standing in his way is my team, fresh off a debilitating loss to Barnard's sorry excuse for a team, but still leading the league in scoring. That's not the matchup of the week (more on that in a minute), but it has the potential to set the tone for the rest of the season.
This week will be huge for any team with either 3 or 1 wins, as it sets the 3-win teams up for the playoffs, and keeps a glimmer of hope for the 1-win teams. We'll likely be putting the Done Chain on at least one team this week (Spoiler Alert: It's Reap).
Team of the Week - Belfer
I have to say, I was terrified at the thought of Z going undefeated. Of our previously 0-loss teams, his seemed the most complete, and immune to a one-week slump. And while he still put up 110, it wasn't enough to stop The Ghost of Nick Joseph. The phenomenally named and avatared Team Belfer showed up big and saved this league from being crushed under a pinball machine. The fact that he did so with his starting WR and TE on a bye is even more impressive. I don't know that I see Belf as a playoff team, but a lineup of Baker/Ingram/Sony/Evans/AB/Burton is nothing to scoff at. He's a flex away from being a true threat.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Mohamed Sanu Sr. over Mike Williams
I have to say I disagreed with this move, but it paid off in spades for our Team of the Week. Honorable mention goes to Barnard for starting Brady over Goff, but lets be real, every time the Pats score Barnard jerks off to a screenshot of Tom vs. Time with his face photoshopped over Brady's son's face during their epic kiss.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Esco :(
I'm not saying starting Westbrook over Drake or Crowell was a dumb move, but watching how things turned out I can't help but think his team is just cursed this year. As we all saw this week, he doesn't even really have trade options outside of maybe Rodgers? This went from a frisky deep team to a lost season before any of us even realized there was a problem.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Zacherman vs. Levine
There will be fireworks in the Kumpf vs. Weiss matchup, but the two of us are already leading our divisions and have the two highest point totals by a long shot. We're both incredibly likely to make the playoffs. Levine and Z are right there as well, but the loser of this matchup could be in danger of falling into the fringe playoff category. From a bye perspective, Levine losing Stafford and replacing him with Mariota might be enough to swing things to Z from the start. But I see a massive Julio game coming and Levine does get last licks with Adams, so it likely comes down to SNF. If Belichick can't solve Mahomes and Co., then Z likely gets 60+ from that game, which should be enough to give him the win.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/8
NFL Bets
Dolphins (+3) vs. Bears - Win
Chargers (-1) at Browns - Win
Falcons (-3) vs. Bucs - Win
Chiefs (+3) at Patriots - Push
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 16-10-3 (+3.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Texas Tech (+7) at TCU - Win
Florida (-7) vs. Vanderbilt - Win
Northwestern (-4) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Penn State (-13) vs. Michigan State - Loss
Washington (-3) at Oregon - Loss
Virginia Tech (-6) at North Carolina - Loss
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 23-26-2 (-6.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
I also put some money on Oklahoma to win the National Championship at +4500.
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-7 (-3.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
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