Week 6 Recap

We're 6 weeks in and we finally know some stuff! Marco is great at drafting divisions, Esco is terrible, and Levine is perfectly average. I guess that doesn't mean all that much, but at this point it is indisputable. For as many points as have been scored this year, it does seem kind of like we've known the playoff teams since Week 1, and not all that much has changed. We also haven't seen too much money spent on the waiver wire, which might end up looking foolish at the end of the year when we all look like Barnard on draft day in terms of leftover money (and might explain the price for D/ST's on the wire). On the plus side, we've seen almost one trade per week, which is fantastic, and will hopefully keep the pace as we get closer to the trade deadline. We start by looking at only the second deal this year that didn't involve me or Marco...

Trade Grade 5
Ajay receives Sony Michel and Ronald Jones
Belfer receives LeVeon Bell and John Conner
On the surface, I understand why Ajay had to make a move. He's in dire straits, and with the Steelers on a bye, he needed a startable RB. He got one of those in Michel, who is likely a top 10 back moving forward, and while Jones has been an afterthought so far, he's at least a handcuff.

However, from Belfer's perspective one of the following scenarios is likely to happen:
1) Bell comes back in the next couple of weeks, relegates Conner to the bench, and resumes his post as a top 3 fantasy RB.
2) Bell gets traded to an RB-needy team (potentially the Bucs, which would really be a kick in the balls for Ajay), and both Conner and Bell are top 10 fantasy RBs.
3) Bell and Conner split time in Pittsburgh.
Either of the first two scenarios make this trade a huge win for Belfer. Even the third scenario likely makes Bell a starting RB, and Conner potentially flex-worthy. I just don't see the downside for Belf.
Ajay Grade: C
Belfer Grade: A

Playoff Odds

After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs

After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs

The underdog story continues! Weissbard is officially the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and has a chance to do the same to the 7-0 barrier. Standing in his way is a less than formidable Alan team, but a brutal Marco/Z stretch awaits Weiss starting next week. At the other end of the spectrum, both Ajay and BAM get the Done Chain officially, but even our 2-4 teams still have a chance based on league history.

The big gap this week is predictably between 4-3 and 3-4, yet none of our 3-3 teams are facing each other. We do have a potential Loser Leaves Town Match, but that has more to do with the division breakdown than the strength of either team. More on that in a minute.

Team of the Week - Esco
Deep into the 4th quarter of MNF, it looked like Esco was about to fall to an essentially eliminated 1-5, while Barnard would improbably take the division lead. Enter Aaron Rodgers, who lit the world on fire and saved the day. After last week's lineup debacle, Esco didn't do too much better this week, and Aaron Jones over Matt Breida may have driven him to suicide if Rodgers didn't take over. He's definitely not out of the woods yet, and his bye-ridden roster takes on the league's top scorer this week, but he got a stay of execution for at least one week.

Best Lineup Move of the Week - Reap starting Latavius Murray over Lamar Miller
In hindsight, maybe Reap should have just traded Miller to BAM so we could all see the epic Old Bay snort. Miller is the ultimate frustrating fantasy RB, where he's never someone you feel great about starting, but he's always someone you might regret benching. This week Reap chose right, and got the added benefit of having Lat Murray run wild on Marco's team that was forced to start Isaiah Crowell because Dalvin Cook was hurt. Well done Reaper.

Worst Lineup Move of the Week - BAM :(
Back to back weeks of the unhappy face in this section, as BAM's season just fell apart this week. Losing by 1.4 is never fun, but the bench performances of ARob, Duke and Gore make it even worse. To add injury to insult, Cooper Kupp is banged up, making a sure fire trade win look a little bit more shaky moving forward. It's crazy to say, but a team with Russ, OBJ and Gronk are essentially eliminated 6 weeks in with no missed games between those guys.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - Belfer vs. Gutman
Huge divisional matchup alert! Belf doesn't get to bust out his new toy(s) this week, and he loses AB to the bye as well, making this a shell of the team that should be very intriguing down the stretch. On the other side, fatherhood has done nothing to slow down Gutman's team, and he's shockingly undefeated with Mara running his team. The talent edge definitely goes to Gut this week, but with Brees and Mike Thomas running into a tough D in Baltimore, while Baker and Evans engage in a shootout, this will be closer than expected. I never thought I'd say this, but the matchup weirdly comes down to Mohamed Sanu. If he plays and Ridley is out, Belf is favored. If he's out or Ridley plays, then I'm leaning Gutman. Belf can't wait until MNF to make this call, so I'm gonna stick with Mara.
Pick: Gutman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-3

Gambling Corner - Week of 10/15

NFL Bets
Bucs (-3) vs. Browns - Push
Dolphins (+3) vs. Lions - Loss
Jets (+4) vs. Vikings - Loss
Bears (+3) vs. Patriots - Loss
Chiefs (-6) vs. Bengals - Win
Last Week: 3-0-1
2018 Record: 17-13-4 (+1.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Cincinnati (+4) at Temple - Loss
Syracuse (-8) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Minnesota (+4) at Nebraska - Loss
Wake Forest (+11) at Florida State - Loss
Memphis (+10) at Missouri - Loss
Kentucky (-11) vs. Vanderbilt - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2018 Record: 23-32-2 (-12.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Magic (+3) vs. Heat - Win
Hornets (+3) vs. Bucks - Win
Pelicans (+8) at Rockets - Win
Lakers (+3) at Blazers - Loss
Magic (+3) vs. Hornets - Loss
Jazz (+3) vs. Warriors - Win
Lakers (+4) vs. Rockets - Loss
2018-2019 Record: 4-3 (+0.56 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NBA Win Total Bets

Hawks over 23.5

Celtics under 59

Nets over 32

Hornets over 35.5

Mavs under 35.5

Warriors under 62.5

Rockets under 56.5

Pacers under 47.5

Lakers under 48.5

Wolves over 41.5

Magic over 31

Sixers under 53.5

Spurs under 43.5

Jazz over 49.5

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Watford (+425) at Wolves - Win
Crystal Palace (+350) at Everton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-8 (-0.7 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)