Week 5 Recap

After 5 weeks, things have never been weirder in FALAFEL. Of our 7 teams that are 1-4 or 2-3, all of them except for Bennett have a Chef's Coat. On the flip side, the 7 teams above .500 (other than Levine), have never tasted fantasy glory. This is personified by Fireball Dan, who is just the third team in the last 6 years to hit 5-0 despite flirting with the Long Line for the last few years. Those teams have never missed the playoffs, so the pressure is on our diminutive leader to not fuck this all up. The rest of us are a jumble of mediocrity, and other than Marco, the division races will be crazy and/or sad. We're nearly halfway through the year, and we may know less about this league than when we left Baltimore.

Trade Grade 4
Esco receives Chris Godwin and Ito Smith
Marco receives Isaiah Crowell and Joe Flacco
Not the most exciting trade in the world, but I grade them all. I have to say I don't really understand this for Marco. He's set at RB, with a clear need for reliable WR starters. I'm not saying Godwin filled that need, but having an option at receiver is better than not having one. Crowell is likely the best player in the deal, which is presumably why Marco pulled the trigger, but I would expect another trade in his future. For Esco, this was about removing a frustrating player more than anything else. His season is mostly lost, so getting rid of a problematic decision can be cathartic in a way. Godwin immediately becomes a flex option for him, and Ito provides some Freeman insurance. This trade likely will have no impact on the results of this season, but I like it a little bit more for Esco.
Esco Grade: B-
Marco Grade: C+

Playoff Odds

After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams make the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams make the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams make the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 1-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams make the playoffs

After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs

These numbers are extremely interesting this week, but it's important to remember that we changed our playoff qualification standards last year, so the potential for outliers is higher than it seems. That said, Weissbard has the chance to become the first 6-0 team in the ESPN era (Zacherman started something like 11-0 back in 2010, and I believe Ajay went undefeated until the finals in the Cortesian Era). Standing in his way is my team, fresh off a debilitating loss to Barnard's sorry excuse for a team, but still leading the league in scoring. That's not the matchup of the week (more on that in a minute), but it has the potential to set the tone for the rest of the season.

This week will be huge for any team with either 3 or 1 wins, as it sets the 3-win teams up for the playoffs, and keeps a glimmer of hope for the 1-win teams. We'll likely be putting the Done Chain on at least one team this week (Spoiler Alert: It's Reap).

Team of the Week - Belfer
I have to say, I was terrified at the thought of Z going undefeated. Of our previously 0-loss teams, his seemed the most complete, and immune to a one-week slump. And while he still put up 110, it wasn't enough to stop The Ghost of Nick Joseph. The phenomenally named and avatared Team Belfer showed up big and saved this league from being crushed under a pinball machine. The fact that he did so with his starting WR and TE on a bye is even more impressive. I don't know that I see Belf as a playoff team, but a lineup of Baker/Ingram/Sony/Evans/AB/Burton is nothing to scoff at. He's a flex away from being a true threat.

Best Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Mohamed Sanu Sr. over Mike Williams
I have to say I disagreed with this move, but it paid off in spades for our Team of the Week. Honorable mention goes to Barnard for starting Brady over Goff, but lets be real, every time the Pats score Barnard jerks off to a screenshot of Tom vs. Time with his face photoshopped over Brady's son's face during their epic kiss.

Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Esco :(
I'm not saying starting Westbrook over Drake or Crowell was a dumb move, but watching how things turned out I can't help but think his team is just cursed this year. As we all saw this week, he doesn't even really have trade options outside of maybe Rodgers? This went from a frisky deep team to a lost season before any of us even realized there was a problem.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - Zacherman vs. Levine
There will be fireworks in the Kumpf vs. Weiss matchup, but the two of us are already leading our divisions and have the two highest point totals by a long shot. We're both incredibly likely to make the playoffs. Levine and Z are right there as well, but the loser of this matchup could be in danger of falling into the fringe playoff category. From a bye perspective, Levine losing Stafford and replacing him with Mariota might be enough to swing things to Z from the start. But I see a massive Julio game coming and Levine does get last licks with Adams, so it likely comes down to SNF. If Belichick can't solve Mahomes and Co., then Z likely gets 60+ from that game, which should be enough to give him the win.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-3

Gambling Corner - Week of 10/8

NFL Bets
Dolphins (+3) vs. Bears - Win
Chargers (-1) at Browns - Win
Falcons (-3) vs. Bucs - Win
Chiefs (+3) at Patriots - Push
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 16-10-3 (+3.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Texas Tech (+7) at TCU - Win
Florida (-7) vs. Vanderbilt - Win
Northwestern (-4) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Penn State (-13) vs. Michigan State - Loss
Washington (-3) at Oregon - Loss
Virginia Tech (-6) at North Carolina - Loss
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 23-26-2 (-6.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

I also put some money on Oklahoma to win the National Championship at +4500.

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-7 (-3.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)