Semi-Final Preview (Guest Post)

 Note: My paternity leave extends to the blog, so our defending champion has admirably and surprisingly offered to step in and write up a preview to the Final Four. I will likely put together some sort of Stevens Bowl preview next week, but until then, enjoy.

With our commish newly in charge of helping raise a human, I've volunteered as tribute to write the semi-final. You're probably thinking, oo a Hunger Games reference in the first line? Is he going movie theme? Maybe it'll just be a series of gifs hieroglyphic style for everyone to interpret for no words? Or in true Weissbard fashion will it be 3/4 of 1 matchup preview and then just stop? Honestly, probably the latter, maybe the gif thing, and definitely not movie themed. My previews are based very little on actual data/facts and more so on gut feeling which besides the past 3 years when I started using external drafting tools has led me to a sub-500 record which I am never going to recover from. (Tiger King themed preview????) Anyway, off we go.

Bernard vs The Bard

Constantly ranked #1 and #2 in the rivalry rankings, this is one of those matchups where nobody wants either of us to win (insert Larry David Palestinian Chicken gif)(Editor's Note: I am unsure if Weiss really wants me to insert this gif but I think it's funnier with the description). Barnard winning means all jokes about being terrible at fantasy come to an immediate stop, and Ajay will now only be able to respond to any of Barnard's trash talk with "chef's hat?" instead of "chef's coat?". If I win I become the first 3peat winner, can label myself a dynasty with 3 wins in 4 years, and receive validation that my incessant reverse jujuing and "oops wrong group" messages actually have a positive effect on things and will probably ramp up the frequency of said messages. So who will win? Great question Reap thanks for asking.

QB

Mahomes and the Chiefs in general have been playing lights out recently. A lot of that has been 2007 Super Bowl Champion, 18 wins 1 GIANT loss, defensive coordinator Spags, turning things around. But a hefty amount of that has also been Kelce remembering he's the best TE in the league and Tyreek focusing more on football and less on domestic abuse. Herbert on the other hand has been pretty consistent all season and has shrugged off any 2nd year wentz comparisons some people throw at him. Covid is obviously a huge factor here as Pat may be Reek/Kelce-less while Herbert could be Ek-less. Matchup wise, the chiefs have a suddenly tough again Stillers while the Chargers get to beat up on the Poopston (lol) Texans. If either one of Kelce/Tyreek play I'll call it a wash, otherwise I gotta give it to my man, DANCING RICK.

RB

(Author Note: I am seriously regretting starting this and may just stop now and give final projections)

Every single one of Barnard's RB is questionable right now except for Sony who barring another random Henderson injury is an rbbc at best. Josh Jacobs I feel like was hurt for a while and the raiders kinda stink? Stevenson should be solid, especially if the Pats play the Bills like they did last time and run it 99% of the plays. Sanders gets the shitty gmen but Hurts will probably vulture a bunch of TDs. Meanwhile for me I have Monty who should be solid but Nagy is dumb. CEH is interesting because if all those studs for KC are out, there could be lots of running/screens/dump offs. Or Mahomes will just keep slinging and people with names like Pringle will catch 3 TDs. We also have a Chuba revenge game going on though the Panthers have been possibly a bottom 5 NFL team recently and the Bucs run D is no joke which means we may get a Dookie (insert dookie from scary movie gif) Johnson game in the 2021 semi-finals. What a world. We'll call this a wash as well

WR

Obviously a lot of this depends on if Reek actually plays. If he doesn't, Barnard is left with correctly guessing who will have the breakout game between Pringle or Hardman or if Sutton will randomly decide to remember how to play football. Barnard could be smart and whoever he doesn't play, bet on the other person to make $, but instead he'll probably bet on Kelce to throw first TD pass. My WR situation has Waddle who is 2nd behind only Kupp in receptions this year. Or something like that, I forget the exact stat I read on reddit but trust me, it was a good one. And Cooper who honestly hasn't been great and the cowboys offense in general has been weird, but they are playing WFT. But maybe I'll play Jeudy to spite Barnard's team or Gabriel Davis so if he scores it's a double whammy vs the Pats, idk idk. Either way Barn dogs get the slight edge woof woof

TE

Knox has been GOLD for me (aaay), for a while, but then also poops the bed randomly. True of most TE this year outside a few studs. Maybe I'm biased because I'm a Giants fan but they might be historically the worst team at covering TE in the history of the NFL. Plus Goedert has the revenge game factor with a chip on his shoulder. Slight edge Barn dogs woof woof

Def

Rams @ Minnesota? No Cook now but Mattison is still a very good backup. I have no idea how good the Rams are against the run, but I assume Vikings will run the ball pretty well and JJ is good for a TD or 3. But Von and Donald are both very good football players. On the other side the Saints just completely shut down the Bucs which they were helped by a number of injuries, and the Dolphins have been hot (though against garbage teams). So Saints at the superdome should be nice, but I also feel like the Saints randomly shit the bed pretty frequently this year. Wash.

Winner - It'll be a toss up and Barnard will most likely send multiple mean texts to me. It's a good thing he doesn't know how to send video messages or I'd be getting his drunken squinty eyed anime hair video messages all day. Barnard squeaks one out by < 10 and the fraudbards season comes to an end.

Billy/Kumpf the Texas Dad Showdown

Kumpf may legitimately be happier with a chef coat than with a new daughter. And Billy is trying to finally prove that Marshall wasn't the brains behind the operation when he won his only chef's coat. Lots of bragging rights here like who the better dad is, who's better at Texasing, and I guess that's it. I'm trying to get this all done while Lily eats her breakfast so probably won't be my best work.

QB

Cam has looked so, so bad lately and the Bucs are coming off an awful 9-0 loss so you have to imagine they'll come out on fire. That being said, Cam is still probably good for a rushing TD and some yards there and Billy's other option Carr is hit or miss but does give him the Renfrow double up which could be nice, especially being in an early hole with AJ Brown's sudden resurgence. Kumpf on the other hand is trotting out either Captain Kirk who is probably good for a 187 yards 2 td 1 int game or Matty Ice who might put up 2 points or 25 vs the suddenly not awful Lions? Hopefully cousins built that popemobile plexiglass barrier he was talking about otherwise he might be catching Cook's coco. Don't think the qb will make or break this matchup, but giving slight edge to Kev.

(author's note: I've now moved from my laptop to phone so what was already a sloppy production is only getting worse) 

RB

I don't even think it's worth the effort to write about this since it's so one sided. Taylor alone might outscore Mixon and Reynolds/Gaskin. But then again Mixon had a nice month of 20+ weeks, which still leaves najee. If Billy wants a shot at winning this he's gonna need 20+ from each and hope Mixon doesn't score.

Wr (idk how to bold on my phone  but this does open up a whole world of emojiis ) 

Honestly as one sided as the rb matchup is, the wr matchup is just as skewed in the opposite direction. Feels weird saying this but without renfrow Billy would be in a terrible spot. I saw someone on reddit call him the Walmart Kupp which I think is an apt comparison. Other than that, Gallup and Osborn aren't bad (imagine that was italicized), but anything more than like 13 from each would be a surprise. Kuppf on the other hand has the top scoring player in fantasy who may break some wr record, a now healthy Aj brown who obviously had his monster game and the only viable receiver for big Ben who gets like 15 targets a game. Big advantage to commish 

TE

Another not even close one. While I declared myself the te whisperer, billy has consistently streamed TEs who end up scoring. Uzomah has a dope name and has randomly had 2td games, but it would be quite the surprise. Andrews meanwhile has cemented himself as the number 1 te and has multiple 30+ weeks which is more than most players in any position can say. I think Huntley playing actually helps because of the classic "new qb used te as a safety valve", but Lamar playing doesn't hurt either. Big advantage kev 

Def

Billy's been rolling with the bills which I think has been... Fine? They've had a bunch of double digit weeks which you can't ask for more from a defense, but have a tough matchup at the pats. Dolphins meanwhile are one of the hotter teams, though it has been vs teams like the jets twice, Texans, giants, etc. But it seems like the covid train is running on through nawlins and saints now have 3rd string qb. Kamara is still obviously a challenge but a rando at qb is never great. Slight advantage kumpf 

Final prediction 

Obviously fantasy is 90% luck except for last season and 2 seasons before that and potentially this season. But based on the past performances, my statistical model is showing big win for kumpf. I did also get a D in engineering stats (and a 4 or 5 on the AP test nbd) so take that prediction however you want. 

There you have it folks. By default, this is the best 2021 FALAFEL semi-final preview out there so no one can complain. A kumpf barnard final where Barnard can erase decades worth of embarrassment and forever hold this over Kevin's head. On the other hand, Kumpf can add a nuclear bomb option to his already impressive ammunition cache of ways to attack Barnard. Join us next week for the finals preview which will 100% be fully done.