Week 12 Recap

The trade deadline came and went without any action, which means everyone's team is more or less set for the stretch run. I say more or less because injuries to both CMC and Dalvin have essentially ended Mejia's season, given Ajay re-renewed hope, and put a cap on Weissbard's upside (though not enough to re-introduce the Fraudbard narrative).

This will likely be the last "real" post of the season, as I have Finals next week and then a Baby the week after, so we'll do a deep dive on the playoff picture so I can make quick adjustments over the next two weeks.

This is how things stand currently:

Playoff Picture:
1. Billy - Best Regular Season Record - Division Champ - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1 - Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Champ
4. Zacherman - Wild Card 2
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. AGD - NiJo Spot

There's madness in spots 4 and 5, but let's get everyone else out of the way first.

Best Regular Season Record/Weissbard Division Champ/Bye #1
This has been a two-man race for awhile now, with Billy and Weissbard moving in lockstep. Billy has a 150 point lead over Weiss, so the magic number is essentially 1 for Billy to clinch. If Billy loses out and Weissbard wins out, then Weiss takes the spot. Everyone else is eliminated.

Wild Card 1/Bye #2
Whoever loses out on the top spot gets this one by default. No one else is eligible.

Levine Division Champ
I'm up over 100 points on both Levine and Mejia, so I would need to lose out and have one of them win out to fall out of this spot. Levine faces Weissbard and Mejia faces Billy this week, which makes a couple of these races very interesting.

NiJo Spot
This is where things start to get crazy. If I fall out of the division lead, I have an 85 point lead on everyone else here. So for the teams vying for this spot, you need to root for me over everyone else. I appreciate the support. Beyond that, AGD is up less than 60 on 8 teams (not including Weissbard, who is shockingly 10-2 with the 11th most points scored), all of whom I think are in play. Given that AGD is a game back in the Division/Wild Card 2 race, they have to be the favorites here, but I'd give Z, Levine, and Ajay a decent shot the way their rosters look right now.

Gutman Division Champ
What a mess this is. Barnard is currently in the lead by 4 points over Alan, with a strong AGD team lurking a game back and Gutman somehow still alive. Barnard and AGD face off in a huge matchup this week (teaser). A Barnard win eliminates AGD from the division, which also makes them the favorite for the NiJo spot, so everyone should be rooting against Barnard. I appreciate the support. A Barnard loss and an Alan win puts him in the driver's seat, but in Week 14, Alan faces Levine, AGD face Billy, and Barnard faces me, so I would assume none of them are favored to get to 8 wins. Right now I'll give Alan a slight advantage based on him facing Marco this week, but it's really 35% Alan, 30% AGD, 30% Barnard, 5% Gutman.

Wild Card 2
This is basically a battle between Zacherman and Levine. They are by far the two best 6-6 teams, and their rosters are in fine shape compared to some of the other contenders for this spot. Z gets Esco this week, which gives him a massive leg up in the race, followed by Ajay, while Levine gets Weissbard and Alan. If they both lose out, this gets very interesting, as it opens up room for the Barnard/Bennett/Alan/AGD/Ajay group of mediocrity to make a move out of the NiJo race. I'll give Z a slight edge over Levine thanks to the Esco matchup, but I don't think this will be any more clear a week from now.

Week 13 Power Rankings

1. Kumpf (Last Week: 1st) 

2. Levine (Last Week: 2nd) 

3. Billy (Last Week: 4th) 

4. AGD (Last Week: 5th) 

5. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th) 

6. Ajay (Last Week: 8th) 

7. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd) 

8. Barnard (Last Week: 9th) 

9. Nick (Last Week: 7th) 

10. Alan (Last Week: 10th) 

11. Mejia (Last Week: 11th) 

12. Marco (Last Week: 12th) 

13. Gutman (Last Week: 13th) 

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Barnard

Almost every matchup has a big impact this week. Ajay and I are both projected over 110, the Weissbard/Levine and Billy/Mejia matchups could affect the bye and eliminate someone from the division, and every other matchup has at least NiJo implications. However, as discussed, Barnard vs. AGD has the most far-reaching impact. A Barnard win means AGD can only get into the playoffs via the NiJo spot, but if they lose then they may no longer be leading the pack. An AGD win throws the Gutman division into chaos heading into Rivalry Week. And Belfer still needs to pay Barnard, putting some financial incentives in play as well.

As for the matchup itself, Barnard is not in great shape. Deebo is out, Sanders is likely limited, and the Mahomes/Tyreek/Sutton trio will need to do a lot of legwork on SNF. Outside of Mahomes, I would expect the Rams D/ST to be his leading scorer, but they could easily break 20 in a Ramsey revenge game. 

AGD should have it a lot easier, though not in terms of lineup decisions. Luckily for them, Kamara plays Thursday so they should know his status before having to decide anything else. But even if he doesn't play, it looks like Jamaal Williams will get the start in Detroit, and the Godwin/Chase/Pittman trio all have great matchups. I've been overly confident in these picks a few times this year and seen it backfire, but unless Mahomes and Tyreek combine for 60, I don't see Barnard keeping up here.

Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 5-7
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4