Probably the busiest week of my life, so keeping things brief outside of the playoff scenarios.
This is how things stand currently:
Playoff Picture:
1. Billy - Best Regular Season Record - Division Champ - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1 - Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Champ
4. Zacherman - Wild Card 2
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. Ajay - NiJo Spot
For everything below, I'm considering 50 points as the cutoff for what is possible to make up in one week. I'm aware of the irony in saying this one week after Ajay beat me by 64, but we need to have a cutoff somewhere. This means that Esco, Gutman, Alan, Nick, and Bennett are eliminated barring an Ajay-like week.
Best Regular Season Record/Weissbard Division Champ/Bye #1
This is straightforward. If Billy beats AGD or Weissbard loses to Esco, Billy clinches these spots. If Billy loses and Weissbard wins, then Weissbard clinches these spots.
Wild Card 1/Bye #2
Whoever loses out on the top spot gets this one by default. No one else is eligible.
Levine Division Champ
Despite Ajay's best efforts, I have clinched this spot and will be either the 3 seed (if I beat Barnard), 4 seed (if I lose to Barnard and Zacherman loses to Ajay), or 5 seed (if I lose and Z wins).
Gutman Division Champ
Things cleared up here a bit thanks to Barnard's solid week and Alan's Hot Potato performance, so Barnard has clinched this spot. If he wins, Barnard will be either the 3 seed (if Z loses, or if he outscores a winning Z team by 0.6) or 4 seed (if Z wins and Barnard doesn't outscore him by 0.6). If he loses, Barnard will be either the 4 or 5 seed depending on how the points scored breaks down for the 7-7 teams.
Wild Card 2
Zacherman controls his own destiny here. If he beats Ajay, he gets clinches this spot, but if he loses he is eliminated from this spot.. A Z loss means Ajay wins and takes over the lead for this spot. He has a 36 point lead over Levine, who would have to beat Alan and overcome that deficit to claim this spot. No one else is eligible.
NiJo Spot
This is heavily contingent on who clinches Wild Card 2. As it stands, the points situation for all eligible teams is:
- Ajay: +0.0
- AGD: -20.06
- Levine: -36.32
- Marco: -39.24
-Z: -42.20
If Z beats Ajay, then the rest of these teams need to outscore Ajay by the points listed above. If Ajay beats Z, then you can all subtract 20.06 by the numbers above and that's how much you need to outscore AGD by. Wins and losses don't matter here outside of the Ajay/Z matchup.
Playoff predictions after MotW and Rivalry Week predictions.
Week 14 Power Rankings
1. Ajay (Last Week: 6th)Matchup of the Week: Ajay vs. Zacherman
Everything is coming up Ajay right now. He has benefitted from the injuries to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Deebo Samuel, and if Darrell Henderson can get healthy, this is improbably the strongest roster in the league by a decent margin. Zacherman is not slouch either, but is currently holding on by a thread, with Stafford, Zeke, and JRob all struggling compared to a few weeks ago.
The stakes here are made clear above, but the winner clinches Wild Card 2, and the loser, while still in decent NiJo position, will have a lot more competition. The matchup will start quickly with Ajay's Rams, and end with some madness on MNF between Stafford, Hendo, and Van. The big differences in roster quality here are at WR2, TE, and Flex, where Ajay gets to roll out CD, Kittle, and Hendo against Zacherman's Van, Ertz, and Elijah Moore. That's a potential 50-point advantage from Ajay, which should be enough to clinch him the Wild Card while sending the NiJo race into chaos.
Pick: Ajay
MotW Record: 5-8
Rivalry Week 2 Predictions:
Kumpf over Barnard
AGD over Billy
Levine over Alan
Mejia over Nick
Weissbard over Esco
Marco over Gutman
Ajay over Zacherman
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4
Playoff Prediction:
1. Weissbard
2. Billy
3. Kumpf
4. Ajay
5. Barnard
6. AGD
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