Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Week 2 Recap

This is a class week for me, so that means a pared down version of the rankings. I'll plan on doing a brief intro, trade grade if applicable, followed by just a list of the rankings and a Matchup of the Week breakdown, but that's all subject to change in future months.

Two weeks in, and as many have noticed, we only have two 2-0 teams and two 0-2 teams. Complex algebra leads me to a conclusion that 10 teams are 1-1. Combine that with a 14-game regular season, and literally nothing that has happened means anything yet. Sure Levine would love to have pulled out one of his MNF disasters, and Weissbard was 1 yard away from 1-1, but we still have three months until the playoffs.

More signs that it's early:

  • Daniel Jones is QB4 on the season, Josh Allen isn't in the top 15, and Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert are not in the top 20.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson, Tony Pollard, and Ty'son Williams individually have more points than Saquon Barkley and Clyde Edwards-Helaire combined.
  • Deebo Samuel has 11 more points than Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay combined.
  • Rob Gronkowski has 4 TDs after 2 games. It took him until Week 10 for his 4th TD last year.
  • The Panthers have a top 3 D/ST.
Some if these positives may represent breakouts (Dimes looked solid in an RG3 offense as a dual threat on TNF) or revivals (Gronk is clearly healthy), and some may represent early signs of bust (I've been down on Saquon and Herbert since the draft) but it's likely a lot of noise that shouldn't dictate any massive overreactions.

That said, if anyone wants to trade a RB1 and WR1 for Cooper Kupp, I'll consider it. He has more points than Alvin Kamara and Davante Adams combined after all.

Trade Grade 2
Alan receives Kareem Hunt and Dallas Goedert
Weissbard receives DK Metcalf
This is a weird one. Alan desperately needed RB help and Weissbard desperately needed WR help, so there was an obvious trade path. But the value between the players involved is a little bit off. DK has started relatively slow, but is a clear top 15 WR. Kareem is flex-worthy in most cases with RB1 upside, so let's call him a top 30 RB. Even with the RB-premium, I think DK is a good bit more valuable moving forward. 
That's fine on the surface, but a more even trade would have been Thielen or Evans for Hunt straight up. Instead, to try to balance things out, Weissbard threw in Dallas Goedert. That left him with literally no one at TE (Austin Hooper doesn't change that), and gave Alan someone who he still can't really feel comfortable starting each week. I think both teams probably got better, but there was a more logical path.
Grades:
Alan: B-
Weissbard: B

Week 2 Power Rankings

1. Marco (Last Week: 1st)
2. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd)
3. Nick (Last Week: 5th)
4. AGD (Last Week: 2nd)
5. Mejia (Last Week: 4th)
6. Billy (Last Week: 6th)
7. Levine (Last Week: 7th)
8. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)
9. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)
10. Gutman (Last Week: 13th)
11. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)
12. Zacherman (Last Week: 11th)
13. Alan (Last Week: 14th)
14. Esco (Last Week: 12th)

Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Weissbard
When the only two undefeated teams play each other, they're automatically MotW. The only other matchup that I considered was Mejia potentially putting Levine in a 0-3 hole in a divisional matchup, but this is the clear highlight. 

With Tua ruled out already, I would assume Gruden doesn't risk Jacobs, leading to Barnard rolling out David Johnson and James White against CMC and Gibson in what is likely the biggest mismatch positionally in FALAFEL history (The way this season has gone, I expect DJ and White to have 3 total TDs on 8 rushing yards, and for CMC to get hurt, leading to Chuba Hubbard, RB1). Both QBs should go off, so if Barnard wants to actually gain ground it will be at the WR position. Reek is Reek, and I really like Sutton's role, especially against the Jets, so it really comes down to Deebo. The Packers have a shut down corner available, so I would assume Alexander is deployed on Deebo and this is an Aiyuk game. If Deebo does it again, then Barnard can move into the top 5, but I'm not betting on it until I see it.

Pick: Weissbard
MotW Record: 1-1
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4


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