Thursday, September 16, 2021

Week 1 Recap

What a week to kickoff the season. Starting Thursday night with Marco's declarative statement on his Stevens Bowl aspirations, and ending with one of the better Monday Night Miracles ever potentially kicking off Round 3 of the Masandiassance (I think we can all agree that oven mitts that say "Save That CUM" would be fantastic), this week did not lack for drama. That continued through Wednesday where Ajay shattered Wayne Gallman's previous record by bidding a whopping $198 for a player who will likely be third string in San Fran by Week 8. Just an amazing week all around.

However, it is just one week. The Cardinals looked amazing, but they played a bottom 5 (bottom 1?) Titans defense. Same with the Eagles, 49ers, and Texans. The Bills, Packers, and Chargers did not look explosive, to say the least, but they played some stifling defenses. I do think that the Rams, Bucs, Cowboys, Browns, and Chiefs (duh) are as good as they look, and the Giants, Jaguars, Jets, and Falcons are as bad as they look. But everything else is a massive TBD. Let the overreaction commence!

Week 2 Power Rankings

1. Marco (Post Draft: 2nd)
It's only one week, but... I can't really find any holes in this roster. Brady doesn't appear to have aged, and if anything looks better. His RB stable is not spectacular but he has four options that he could start (given Hyde's shockingly large role), which is 2 more than most teams and 3 more than Gutman. His worst receiver is Tee Higgins. Even Logan Thomas is serviceable. The scariest thing is that we know Marco isn't afraid to make trades, so getting someone like Darren Waller or DK Metcalf is not hard to envision.

2. AGD (Post Draft: 1st)
It's only one week, but...the only questions I had about this roster were answered, and some new ones appeared. This is unquestionably a playoff team, and Dak/Kamara/Hockenson(!) is a nice trio at their positions, but the performance of Julio and Mike Davis is concerning. Your bench is still pretty stacked, but that may just lead to some more difficult lineup decisions on a weekly basis. I can also see some pretty obvious trade options here given the unexpectedly strong performances of Singletary and Jamaal Williams. 

3. Weissbard (Post Draft: 4th)
It's only one week, but...this team is one trade away from being a true contender. The Jeudy injury hurts an already mediocre (but deep) WR corps, so a Kareem/Waddle for stud WR trade makes a whole lot of sense for more than one team out there. Herbert did nothing in Week 1 to make me think he's not Wentz 2.0, so I continue to think that's a diminishing asset, but he's still an upgrade for a handful of teams.

4. Mejia (Post Draft: 5th)
It's only one week, but...a normal Rodgers performance would have you at 1-0. I didn't love the Terrace Marshall lineup decision, but I'll chalk that up to Bennett, and now Fuller is off suspension and some other great Mejia picks like Shephard and Sammy looked good last week. Kelce may be the single most dominant player in fantasy, and while I don't love Fat Lenny starting, Pollard seems like he's moving closer to Kareem Hunt co-starter territory.

5. Nick (Post Draft: 12th)
It's only one week, but...I would not start Saquon this week. As I said in the draft recap, this will be an absolutely brutal year to own Saquon, and WFT on a short week will be another slog. On the bright side, you actually don't need to start him this week. Chubb looked phenomenal, Ty'Son has the chance to hold onto the job in Baltimore, and if Damien doesn't get benched he's going to get a ton of carries. That's an enviable situation, and gives you assets to improve your QB and TE situation if needed.

6. Billy (Post Draft: 11th)
It's only one week, but...Billy may have found his balance. His RB trio had a pretty rough week, but he appears to have hit on Corey Davis and the Jags passing game, and he somehow has the most prolific QB trio in the league. Some of that will certainly regress, but I'd have to assume that Henry/JTT/Najee combine for more than 30 in most other weeks, and even if they don't Hines is flex-worthy in his current role.

7. Levine (Post Draft: 9th)
It's only one week, but...crushing loss aside, this is a perfectly average team. There are some opportunities for upside if Lamar stops bailing from the pocket and ARob gets a QB upgrade, but otherwise Levine will be between 90-100 every week. That should lead to a .500-ish record, but I don't see Levine being a division captain next year.

8. Barnard (Post Draft: 13th)
It's only one week, but...the floor (and ceiling) of this team is higher than anticipated. I assumed that the Mahomes/Reek combo gave Barnard a floor of 40-50 every week. That appears to be low based on how they looked against Cleveland, and if the KC defense is as rough as they looked, the Chiefs will need to throw more than they have the last two years. The rest of his team is where the ceiling comes in. His WRs always looked solid, but Deebo's role in the San Fran offense is back to 2019 levels, Courtland Sutton is now WR1 in Denver, Odell is...there, and if the Pats passing game is competent, then Barnard has options there as well. Runningback is still going to be an issue. I don't think I've ever seen two RBs put up 26.8 points on 44 total rushing yards, but as long as they both have a redzone presence, it might not matter. One Chiefs injury would cripple this team, but if they stay healthy, the Barndogs might sniff the playoffs.

9. Ajay (Post Draft: 14th)
It's only one week, but...the Elijah Mitchell bid will determine the outcome of Ajay's season. I respect the balls here, but despite how bad he looked Week 1, RoJo is still the RB1 in Tampa. He should theoretically be a starting option, so losing your ability to win an auction for the rest of the year is questionable. The rest of the squad looked pretty solid, as you have to be happy with Henderson's role for now, and the Lamb/JJ/Waller trio will be strong every week. Kittle is really the odd man out, so a trade to one of the top teams for some RB help probably makes the most sense long term.

10. Kumpf (Post Draft: 7th)
It's only one week, but... drafting Raheem Mostert was a mistake. "If Mostert was healthy" was basically the eulogy for Nick's team last year, but I fell into the trap this year and he didn't even last one half. Had he played the whole game, I not only could have taken down Barnard, but the outlook of my season would look entirely different. I'm not worried about my Titans, given how abysmal their defense looks they will throw it a ton, and the Jameiscoaster will be fun, but unless Trey Sermon takes over in San Fran, my ceiling is limited.

11. Zacherman (Post Draft: 6th)
It's only one week, but... that was the absolute floor for your team. Outside of Stafford (who should be a top 5 QB), not one starter hit double figures on a team that was top heavy if anything. I am a little bit concerned about JRob's role, but Zeke, Clyde, and Davante will all bounce back to varying degrees (though matchups are not easy this week). My biggest concern remains depth, with very limited upside on your bench unless the Texans keep feeding Ingram for 2.8 YPC. Another rough week from your studs and I will likely reconsider, but I expect a better performance this time out.

12. Esco (Post Draft: 8th)
It's only one week, but... you may have wasted Kyler's best performance of the season. I'm sure he will be a top 10 QB this season, but his receivers were literally wide open the entire game, and with that division I don't expect too many other passing days like that (though the non-division schedule is light). Outside of that, I don't know what was more of a kick in the balls, Ridley and Keenan barely breaking 20, or getting a goose egg from your TE. Either way, regression should even things out all around here, but the upside is limited.

13. Gutman (Post Draft: 3rd)
It's only one week, but... you should enjoy 13th while you can. RB2 is clearly a wasteland on this team, but AJones will bounce back, Aiuyk will presumably play football this season, and it's possible (for now) that Jalen is legit. If he crashes back to earth this week, then you'll likely fall to the basement, but a dual threat QB with a solid O-Line and decent offensive weapons gives you some insurance. The obvious solution is to trade a WR for an RB, which you're well aware of. Last week you almost traded Terry for either Damien Harris or Ty'Son, which probably would have helped, but now I think your best outcome is to minimize the trade rape.

14. Alan (Post Draft: 10th)
It's only one week, but... if it is truly the Masandiassance II, you'll have to dig out of a pretty big roster hole. I'm willing to give Josh a pass based on a good Pittsburgh D, but you have to be a little bit scared after that performance. But the real reason you're at the bottom is the lack of options on this roster. Your RB2 situation is nearly as bad as Gutman's, but trading a WR would hurt your team way more than it would for Gutman. I'm pretty low on Sanders and Thielen, and while they showed out in Week 1, I don't expect that to be weekly occurrence. So really this team has Allen and DK, and then a bunch of mediocrity at best. Hopefully this gives you even more incentive to take down Esco this week.

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Nick
The only matchup of undefeated teams includes an Ajay team that I still don't love, so I'll go with the only division matchup this week. Both of these teams have massive questions about consistency across their roster, but the upside to each team is there if things break right. Nick also has the chance to jump to 2-0 and try to keep pace with Weissbard, while giving Billy an uphill climb.

Nick has the rare edge at QB this week, based primarily on matchups, but the real turning point of this matchup will be at RB. If Nick has the stones to sit Saquon, I think he runs away with this. Chubb, Harris, Ty'Son, and even Melvin Fucking Gordon have better matchups than Saquon and none of them are banged up. If Nick accepts the sub-10 point performance from Saquon, Billy's studs will have a chance to compete. Not a big enough chance for me to pick him (Lawrence and Chark vs. Denver and Corey Davis vs. the Pats will not be fun), but Nick losing due to starting Saquon would still be fun.
Pick: Nick
MotW Record: 1-0
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

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