Week 3 Recap

Through three weeks, I have admittedly not had as much focus on fantasy as I usually do, and while I assumed that this would impact my team's performance this year, I did not think it would affect my opponents. Yet here I sit, at 1-2, 0.4 points away from 0-3, with a Points Allowed situation that would make the Chiefs (coincidentally my defense this week) blush. I've allowed 12ppg more than the next most team (Gutman) and nearly 50ppg more than Weissbard's charmed 3-0 team, who I get the pleasure of facing this week. Given my team's performance, 1-2 seems like the correct record, but the way I got there has been frustrating to say the least.

This is not all to bitch about a situation that no one cares about (though I've allowed the most and second most points in my other two leagues as well, if you're into that sort of thing), it's just to say that while things are still very early, some of it is real and some of it is not. That's the gimmick this week.

Trade Grade 3
Esco receives Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Zacherman receives Calvin Ridley and Philip Lindsay
This is a bit of a whack-a-mole trade. Esco had a massive hole at RB and now has a massive hole at WR. Zacherman had a massive hole at WR and now has another Texans RB. Esco is likely buying high on Clyde, who seemed to be a fumble away from getting benched a week ago. Z is definitely buying low on Ridley, who was favored to lead the league in receiving yards before Week 1 and currently has less fantasy points than Zach Pascal.

I've said it over and over, but RBs have absurdly high value in this league, this year more than ever. Z was trying to get Cooper Kupp from me for Clyde straight up, and I had to consider it even before CEH broke out last week. I don't blame either team for making this move, but I'm giving the edge to Esco because filling a WR hole is much easier than filling one at RB. Z still has more options than most if Zeke or JRob goes down, but he just all of his non-Texans contingency.
Grades:
Esco: B+
Zacherman: B-

Week 3 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 4th)
Real: TJ Hockenson is a top three Tight End. Kelce is the undisputed #1, and Waller is probably still 2, but beyond that, I would want Hock. Goff literally looks his way on every play, and it was a Monday Night Miracle that he didn't get another catch on the last drive two weeks ago. On a team with no receivers and no future, he will have well over 100 receptions this year.
Not Real: Ja'Marr Chase will not score on over 35% of his catches this year. That goes without saying, but Chase has four less targets than Julio and almost double the points. That won't last, and when Higgins comes back you're going to have some tough Flex decisions.

2. Levine (Last Week: 7th)
Real: This team is as well positioned for a blockbuster trade as anyone else in the league. This year more than ever, RBs are worth overpaying for in trades, and Levine has a few options here. His rookies (Javon and Michael Carter) are trending towards being startable in this league and James Conner might be there already. The big decision is whether to use one of them to improve at WR or TE, or if its worth making a move for one of the few RB big guns out there (of which Ekeler may already be one).
Not Real: Teams will start to cover Brandin Cooks. He's literally the only scary option in a completely abysmal offense. I expect a dud this week and after that you'll need ARob and DJ to step up their games.

3. Marco (Last Week: 1st)
Real: Mike Williams is one of the steals of the draft. As a previous owner, I know how frustrating it can be to own Big Mike, but he looks like a completely different player so far. He's averaging over 10 targets a game and Herbert clearly trusts him in the endzone. Injuries are always a concern here, but if healthy he's a no doubt starter in a contract year.
Not Real: WFT D/ST cannot possible be as bad as they've looked so far (but I still wouldn't start them). The talent is too strong and the coach is too good, but they are literally the lowest scoring D/ST in the league so far. I expect a massive bounce back this week, but looming games against the Chiefs, Packers, Bucs and Seahawks have the potential for negative points. Homerism only goes so far.

4. Billy (Last Week: 6th)
Real: Derrick Henry is not human. I was down on him at the draft because no RB has ever carried this large of a load for multiple years in a row (which caused me to invest in the Titans' passing game 😐), but King Henry is probably the single most valuable asset in fantasy. Combine that with Najee Harris getting an absurd target share and a likely bounceback from JTT, and Billy's RB stable is the envy of the league.
Not Real: Derek Carr will not average over 20ppg. I'm not super confident about this assertion, as he's done it against three above average defenses, but Carr is known to fall off as the season progresses. It likely won't be this week against the Chargers, but I don't know if I would consider him a "set it and forget it" QB for the rest of the season.

5. Mejia (Last Week: 5th)
Real: I'm probably too high on this team. I continue to rate this squad high based on potential (and they probably beat Levine with a healthy Dalvin), but at some point the results need to follow. If you stay as the second lowest scoring team after this coming week, I will drop you out of the top 10.
Not Real: Rob Woods is not an afterthought for the Rams. Currently Cooper Kupp is WR1 and Woods is WR49. I assume the season ends with them less than 15 spots apart.

6. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)
Real: Not drafting Chuba Hubbard will sink a once-promising season. All signs point to CMC coming back at some point, but that was also the case last season, so I'll believe it when I see it. After more than one week of looking at JJ Taylor and JD McKissic, Weiss is going to have to get rid of one of his QBs for pennies on the dollar just to break 5 points at RB2. Chuba would have solved that problem but instead he's giving the BarnDogs life support.
Not Real: Jaylen Waddle will average more than 7.6 yards per catch. For someone who was considered a potential "next Reek", Miami is currently using him exclusively on screens. They will open things up at some point and Waddle will step into your starting lineup as a boom/bust flex option.

7. Nick (Last Week: 3rd)
Real: You need to trade for a QB. I'm not telling you something you don't know, but good lord this is bad situation. I wouldn't sell Chubb and I can't see anyone meeting your Saquon price, but Melvin or Ty'Son probably look pretty good to Weissbard right now.
Not Real: You don't need to worry about Kyle Pitts. I have no idea what the Falcons are doing, but minimizing Pitts' role is one of the most bizarre storylines of the fantasy season so far. Maybe it's because he looks incredible in that black uniform, but I think he's got a massive game coming soon.

8. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)
Real: Your Week 2 performance. A "good" week putting you slightly over 100 sounds about right for a roster with Mahomes, a stable of above average or better WRs, and jack shit at RB.
Not Real: Your Weeks 1 and 3 performances. You will not come close to breaking 140 again in your lifetime, but I also doubt you fall below 50 again (this year at least). You also may set the record for most RB duos started in a season. What a rollercoaster.

9. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)
Real: You need to trade Kittle before he gets hurt. It would be very hard to give up on Waller, who is producing like a top 25 WR, but Kittle is not at that level and he plays so violently that he can't last an entire season. Don't worry, I won't tell anyone.
Not Real: You should not trade your high value backups. Your RB situation is bleak, but you do have the handcuffs for the Vikings, Chiefs, and to a far lesser extent, Dolphins. Unless you can recoup a starter, I would hold all of those guys as they have a little bit of standalone value, but a ton of injury upside, as you already saw last week. (Though if you can package one of them with Kittle for a starting RB, I would do that in a second)

10. Zacherman (Last Week: 12th)
Real: They may not break 60 every week, but you have a true three-headed monster at RB. After two weeks, Zeke, CEH, and JRob were three of the most disappointing players in fantasy, but they certainly bounced back in Week 3. Outside of Billy, you have the most enviable RB situation, and really only need to upgrade WR2 and TE, so if they continue to produce, you'll be a top five team.
Not Real: This team is an injury away from disaster.  Despite how good your lineup looked last week, the bench is a wasteland. It's not worth trading your strength for contingency plans, but with no handcuffs and minimal upside, Mark Ingram Starting RB is not too far-fetched.

11. Alan (Last Week: 13th)
Real: Despite my thoughts last week, the Kareem Hunt trade was necessary. He obviously won't put up 25ppg every week, but a baseline of 8-10 points makes a big difference compared to your other options. It hurts to lose DK, but you have depth to make up for it somewhat.
Not Real: You will not keep getting double digits from your defense. The Panthers start has been both unexpected and impressive (and I was wildly wrong about you dropping the Steelers), but you can't rely on a D/ST unless it's truly transcendent. The Titans are set up well against the Jets this week, but they are a truly terrible defense, so I see that streak stopping sooner than later.

12. Gutman (Last Week: 10th)
Real: Jalen Hurts is a (fantasy) QB1. I was dubious before the season, but Hurts has the double whammy of running the ball and garbage time to make him a great fantasy option. In what is likely a lost season for both you and the Eagles, that's a nice silver lining.
Not Real: Gronk. He has 50 points through three games. I don't think he ends the season with more than 150.

13. Kumpf (Last Week: 11th)
Real: Joe Mixon is vindicated. After being the most frustrating player in the league to own last year, he's at least living up to his draft prices. I'm also grasping at straws.
Not Real: I won't keep losing a starter every week. I've lost Gus, Mostert, Diontae, and AJB in succession, so either the injuries will stop, or I will literally run out of starters.

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)
Real: This is the worst team in all of fantasy football that drafted Kyler Murray. The Dobbins injury hurt, but this team crumbled quickly. I have to assume Ridley bounces back, and Swift has been a shockingly reliable option, but you're currently starting the RB3 for Las Vegas, TE2 for New England, and WR2 for Denver. Not great Bob.
Not Real: Keenan Allen will not be the WR2 for the Chargers. I really like Mike, but Keenan is still a far better talent. As teams start to give safety help towards Big Mike, I expect Keenan to put up a slew of 10-reception games soon.

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Levine
Two  teams that aren't even in the same division while we have multiple intradivisional matchups? You're damn right. Both of these teams are top 4 in the Power Rankings, and one of them is about to fall into a decent hole. The stakes are high and the fun lasts all weekend. Billy has the potential for a big start with Chark on TNF, but even if he gets a dud, his RB trio gets to feast on some less than stellar defenses. His biggest concern is the Titans going up 30 on the Jets in the first half and then benching him. Corey Davis should benefit from that situation, however, so I really like Team Lutz this week, culminating with Carr on MNF.

Levine has a tougher slate of matchups, with Lamar facing the Broncos, Cooks facing the Bills, and ARob being on the Bears. I like Ekeler and DJ, but I don't think it will be enough to keep up with Billy.
Pick: Billy
MotW Record: 2-1
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4