Asheville Draft Recap

Better late than never! 

My usual gimmick of rating everyone's draft using movie, TV, or song quotes was a little bit more difficult this year, which contributed to the delay along with one of the busier two week stretches of my life. Asheville isn't exactly a pop culture hot spot, and some of my options were Dirty Dancing, The Last of the Mohicans, and The Hunger Games, along with Forrest Gump, but that was used already (and could probably be used every year). So I'm going for a little bit of a stretch this year and seeing how this works using the 1993 Harrison Ford/Tommie Lee Jones/Joe Pantoliano classic, filmed in the Asheville area, The Fugitive.

Esco
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: All right, listen up, ladies and gentlemen, our fugitive has been on the run for ninety minutes. Average foot speed over uneven ground, barring injuries, is 4 miles per hour. That gives us a radius of six miles. What I want from each and every one of you is a hard-target search of every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in that area. Checkpoints go up at fifteen miles. Your fugitive's name is Dr. Richard Kimble. Go get him.

We start with a monologue that jump-started Tommie Lee's career, and it goes to the ringleader of Draft Weekend. This was probably the most difficult draft to organize, between the setup of the "city" the lack of reliable Ubers, rampant flooding, and no support from Gutman or Belfer. It was still a successful weekend, and the house was excellent, so kudos to your work there.

In terms of your draft, it looked solid at the time. The Dobbins injury is obviously rough, but this was a deep team as it was drafted. You have a case for the strongest receiver duo in the league, and even without Dobbins, your RB2 situation still isn't the worst in the league. 
Best Pick: D'Andre Swift for $30
Worst Pick: Kenny Golladay for $10. None of your picks were huge overpays or huge values, so getting Swift for half the price of the top RBs and paying double digits for Giants WR will have to suffice. 
Grade: B+ 

Billy
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Henry, Dr. Nichols lied to me. Go find him.

Most players in our league drafted the way they usually do. Hell, my predicted picks almost all hit. The one big exception was Billy going for three RBs instead of his usual two studs. I was skeptical during the draft, but after seeing how fucked the rest of the league is at RB, I think he has a huge edge in that spot. The rest of his squad is absolute trash, but that's always the case, and at least he got some handcuffs this year.
Best Pick: Jonathan Taylor for for $50. Billy is always tough for these sections, but I really like Taylor this year and that's a nice price.
Worst Pick: Bills D/ST for $2. When you go big at RB, every dollar counts, so spending more than $1 on a non-stud defense is a luxury that Billy can't afford.
Grade: B

Marco
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Newman, we're gonna send you a bunch of cops, make sure they turn that place inside out.
Newman: You got it Sam.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: And don't let them give you any shit about your pony tail.

The only league member who can actually pull of a pony tail gets this random quote. Marco's presence was missed for Draft Weekend, but it worked wonders for his squad. Almost every time I saw a player go for less than expected, it seemed like Marco won the auction. The specific players are not my favorites, but I can't argue at all with the process.
Best Pick: David Montgomery for $31. Don't like Monty at all this year, but he probably should have gone for $10 more.
Worst Pick: DeAndre Hopkins for $49. Receiver is insanely deep this year, and I don't see Nuk worth $14 more than Keenan Allen.
Grade: A-

Ajay
Dr. Richard Kimble: I didn't kill my wife!
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I don't care!

The most iconic line in the movie unfortunately goes to the worst draft in the league. Yes, Ajay has two of the top three TEs, and no, I don't care. I have no issue with going big at TE, as it's a onesie position and having WR2 production there is a massive edge over most of the rest of the league. HOWEVER, if you're starting more than one TE, then you are literally picking them over a RB or WR, who have more consistent production. Not to mention that going with Waller and Kittle means that you are totally fucked at QB and RB. I would be shocked if this team makes the playoffs.
Best Pick: Darren Waller for $31. Kelce absolutely deserved to be the top TE, but Waller has a shot to unseat him and is the clear top option in the Vegas passing game.
Worst Pick: George Kittle for $26. No issues with the price, but if you combined the money spent on Kittle and RoJo, you could have had someone in the Dobbins, Monty, Josh Jacobs tier. This team would look a lot better with that setup.
Grade: D

Nick
Cosmo Renfro: What happened? Where'd he go?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: The guy did a Peter Pan right off of this dam, right here.
Cosmo Renfro: What?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Yeah. BOOM.
Cosmo Renfro: Holy shit... Can we go home now...?

This line works a couple of ways for Nick. First, I can totally see this being his response to hearing that someone jumped off the top of a dam. But also, his grade is going to drop the most from last year to this year. I loved Nick's team post-draft last season, and even most of the year despite him winning only one game (I mean look at my roster this season). But starting with a Saquon pick that is probably my least favorite in the league, continuing through a Big Ben/Fields QB situation, and ending with $3 and two roster spots on defense, I did not like this draft. However, the addition of Rock/Paper/Scissors for Shot Spot Companion was a personal highlight of Draft Weekend.
Best Pick: Kyle Pitts for $11. I made fun of Barnard for likely overpaying for Pitts pre-draft, but this could be insane value if he lives up to expectations. Even if he doesn't, it's not a $20 mistake.
Worst Pick: Saquon Barkley for $64. It's going to be hard enough being a Giants fan this year with their abysmal offensive line, turnover-prone QB, and clown of a coach, that paying this much to wince every time Saquon is tackled for a two yard loss on 1st and 10 will just add insult to injury.
Grade: C

Alan
Dr. Richard Kimble: They killed my wife.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I know it Richard. But it's over.
[pauses and sighs]
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: You know I'm glad. I need the rest.

Only one member of this league can get a quote with a nice big sigh in it, and after a week in the wilderness, I'm sure Alan can use the rest. Alan's picks were a lesser version of Marco's, where I kept seeing him get players for less than expected. Alan went bigger across the board, so his depth is lacking a bit, and his RB situation is problematic at best, but he has a path to the playoffs.
Best Pick: Josh Allen at $26. I know I'm in the minority, but I think Josh is going to be QB1 this season.
Worst Pick: Mike Evans for $32. The Bucs offense has so many weapons that I don't love spending big on any individual player outside of maybe Brady. For a team that already had DK, this pick took much needed funds from the RB position.
Grade: B

Kumpf
Dr. Charles Nichols: Richard, I'm sorry, but I'm in the middle of this speech!
Dr. Richard Kimble: You almost got away with it, didn't you? I know all about it. I can prove it.

I gave myself this quote as I tried to take on Levine using his own strategy. It looked like it was working well for a bit, but when our Cooper Kupp bids approached $30, it was clear that I didn't quite get away with it, and both of our teams were weaker as a result. I obviously got lucky as hell with the Gus Bus bid, but grades don't account for that, and my team is super deep with potential starters and/or handcuffs, but has no studs at all. The fact that I have Joe Mixon again is insane, but looking at RB prices I'll take Mixon as the 14th most expensive RB any day.
Best Pick: Diontae Johnson for $13. Back to the well on this guy too, but he's WR1 in Pittsburgh and that price is criminal. 
Worst Pick: Cooper Kupp for $30. Already addressed. Diontae and Kupp for $43 combined is probably accurate, but the fund breakdown is less than ideal.
Grade: B+

Barnard
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: [First lines, said when arriving at the scene of the train wreck] My, my, my. What a mess.

This quote certainly describes Barnard's performance on Draft Day, starting with a poor Rock/Paper/Scissors showing, and culminating with waiting well over 2 hours to draft his second RB, the immortal David Johnson. While there is a decent chance that he has no RBs that will be starting on their own teams, the rest of his roster is not terrible. Mahomes to Tyreek will be unquestionably fun, he has no clear WR2 but about 7 WR3 options, and there's always the chance the Michael Thomas plays this season. That said, he can only start three of his WRs, and it's not like teams are dying to trade RBs for non-stud WRs, so I think he will struggle to have much upside beyond the high floor that his Chiefs provide.
Best Pick: Patrick Mahomes for $31. This was the seventh player nominated. If he had been 15 players later, I think he goes for $40.
Worst Pick: Michael Thomas for $13. I don't think he plays this season, and even if he does, spending $13 for a WR that will spend at least half the season on IR while not having a plan at RB2 is irresponsible.
Grade: C-

Mejia
Marshal Biggs: Sam, are you out of your mind? He's dead.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: That ought to make him easier to catch.

No one really fears Bennett during the draft. He might jack up the prices on some Eagles, but that wasn't really a concern this year. So with Mejia in full control, we all breathed even easier, expecting multiple defenses, Deshaun Watson for $20, and all the Cowboys. Instead, we got...a shockingly good draft. Much like I gave Autodraft credit when Donny did well, this is Mejia's team for this season, and it's one that I think will make the playoffs.
Best Pick: Aaron Rodgers for $12. My biggest regret is not going higher for Rodgers, well done.
Worst Pick: Robert Woods for $32. Rob Woods always goes for more than expected for obvious reasons, but that is the biggest blemish on this roster.
Grade: B+

Zacherman
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: So he showed up not dead yet. Let that be a lesson to you, boys and girls. Don't ever argue with the big dog, because the big dog is always right.
Marshal Biggs: Woo-woo-woo-woof.

As you can tell, I'm running out of even somewhat relevant quotes, so Zacherman gets one that mentions a dog. Z went big on three players, two of which I like, and then lucked out with JRob turning into a top 20 RB, so his grade will be lower here than I expect his team to finish. With all the investment that KC put into their offensive line, I think CEH is primed for a top 5 RB finish. By the time he was nominated, I already had Joe Fucking Mixon, otherwise I would have been all over Clyde. Z's team is thin at QB and TE, but he should be able to stream and/or trade his way into competence there. I doubt this a title contender, but the playoffs could easily be in the cards.
Best Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire for $49. 
Worst Pick: Davante Adams for $58. The price is probably fair for the talent, but given how deep WR is, and how much prices fell off after Davante and Tyreek, you could have built a deeper team by saving here.
Grade: B+

AGD
Dr. Richard Kimble: I thought you didn't care?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I don't.[laughs] Don't tell anybody, okay?
The best buddy moment in the movie goes to the most successful duo in FALAFEL history. Per usual AGD has an extremely solid squad, with high end talent at some spots and depth across the board. The biggest "hole" in their roster is that none of their receivers are the top option in their teams' passing games, and some aren't even top 2, but that's picking nits. I might be ordering two chef hats next summer.
Best Pick: TJ Hockenson for $9. This is the top receiving option for a team that's going to have to pass a lot, similar to Waller. He just cost $22 less.
Worst Pick: Devin Singletary for $6. If Singletary ever starts for this team, there are problems, but I think spending this money on handcuffs would have been more valuable.
Grade: A

Gutman
State Trooper: Hey, Doc! We're looking for a prisoner from that bus-train wreck a couple of hours ago, might be hurt.
Dr. Richard Kimble: Uh, what does he look like?
State Trooper: 6'1, 180, brown hair, brown eyes, beard. See anyone like that around?
Dr. Richard Kimble: Every time I look in the mirror, pal - except for the beard, of course!

Gutman would kill to be 6'1", but everything else checks out, and I'm really hurting for quotes here. Gut's team looked great after the draft, a definite playoff team. Then the Etienne injury happened and now the RB2 situation is at a Barnardian level. But for purposes of this post, I liked the team that was drafted. Too bad we'll never see it take the field.
Best Pick: Aaron Jones for $54. There's a theme here that the top RBs tended to be values and Jones is no different. It was mandatory to grab AJ Dillon though, so that hurts.
Worst Pick: Terry McLaurin for $37. Easy to say in hindsight, but after already having Diggs in the bag, going relatively big again at WR left you thin at RB and vulnerable to an injury :( 
Grade: A-

Levine
Sheriff Rawlins: Okay boys, gather around here and listen up. We're shuttin' it down, Wyatt Earp's here to mop up.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: That's funny. "Wyatt Earp."

Every year we watch Levine sit back and draft 10 startable players when no one has any money left, and every year we say that someone else should try to compete with him. Esco sometimes tries it, but he spent more on his core this year, so that left me trying to compete with Wyatt Fuckin Earp. As previously mentioned, I don't think I was totally effective, but I also think I weakened Levine in the process. His team is still super deep, but outside of Lamar, Ekeler, and ARob, this is not an intimidating roster. Could this be the rare down year for Levine?
Best Pick: Myles Gaskin for $15. At the time, it was not clear that Gaskin was RB1 in Miami, but even then, he was worth $20. If we draft again today, I think he'd go for closer to $30.
Worst Pick: Brandin Cooks for $12.  You never want to be in a bidding war for a Texans player, yet both Levine and Barnard got themselves in this situation.
Grade: B

Weissbard
Cosmo Renfro: When I die, I wanna come back just like you.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Oh, you mean happy and handsome?

If anyone can talk shit this season it's Weissbard, who owns two of the last three Stevens Bowls. I highly doubt he will make it three in four, but a potentially healthy CMC could have something to say about that. I've mentioned several times that WR was crazy deep this year, so going big on RB was the best way to have a complete team, and Weiss leaned into that. He still has a solid selection of receivers to choose from, so while his lineup decisions may be tough, it's better than dealing with the RB2 situation that a lot of the league has. First trade prediction: After Chubb gets hurt, Gutman trades Stefon Diggs to Weissbard for Kareem Hunt.
Best Pick: Kareem Hunt for $16. Flex-worthy when Chubb is healthy, RB1 when Chubb is hurt. Would be RB2 for at least four teams in this league.
Worst Pick: Justin Herbert for $8. I know the 2QB strategy worked last year, but those $8 could have upgraded JuJu to Aiyuk, Diontae, or Higgins. That plus I think Herbert is Carson Wentz 2.0.
Grade: B+

Overall Grades:
AGD: A
Marco: A-
Gutman: A-
Weissbard: B+
Mejia: B+
Zacherman: B+
Kumpf: B+
Esco: B+
Levine: B
Alan: B
Billy: B
Nick: C
Barnard: C-
Ajay: D

Based on these predictions, it's AGD over Marco in the Stevens Bowl. We all know Marco will make trades, and Gutman/Esco have already fallen off due to injuries, but overall I liked the draft that most of the league had.

Rivalry Week 1 Predictions:
Kumpf over Barnard
Weissbard over Esco
AGD over Billy
Marco over Gutman
Mejia over Nick
Zacherman over Ajay
Levine over Alan

Matchup of the Week: Gutman vs. Marco
The only divisional matchup of Week 1 gets this honor by default, though I don't think it will be too dramatic. These lineups look pretty even across the board, both in terms of talent as well as matchups, but when you get to RB2 there's a definite record scratch. Hilariously, both teams are starting Seattle RBs. Less hilarious for Gutman, he's the one starting Rashaad Penny. There's a better chance of Penny tearing his ACL than turning into an actual startable RB, so this starts Marco's march to the Stevens Bowl.
Pick: Marco
MotW Record: 0-0