Week 9 Preview

Another week, another flurry of absurd scores. Week 8 was led by Dalvin Cook, but Mahomes and Metcalf also broke the 30 point barrier, with Russ and Davante Adams not far behind. As I've said repeatedly, having as many of these guys as possible is the key to making the playoffs this year, and also means that no team is unbeatable. Levine and Weissbard look like a pretty clear top two, but there are a lot of teams below them that can put up huge points in any given week. That makes getting a bye extremely important, as winning three straight playoff games will be more difficult in this scoring (and COVID) environment than ever before.

With that in mind, let's take a look at where things stand:

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. Levine (Levine Division Champ, Bye, Best Overall Record)
2. Esco (Wild Card 1, Bye)
3. Weissbard (AGD Division Champ)
4. Barnard?!?! (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. AGD (NiJo Spot)

This is the most fun situation, as I expect Marco to separate himself in the Gutman Division now that CMC is back, so the race for the NiJo spot keeps six teams in play. Barnard as the four seed (and fifth most points) is the true shocker, but he also may not win another game even with Chubb coming back.

Week 9 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)

Putting up 125 with Kyler, Hopkins and potential league-winner James Robinson on bye is extremely impressive. Doing it with your replacement QB not breaking 8 points is enough to take over the top spot once again.

2. Levine (Last Week: 1st)

The Russian is cut! No one has gone undefeated in the regular season since the Cortesian pre-FALAFEL days, and this dream season was bound to hit a speed bump at some point. The fact you lasted this long after losing Dak and Mixon was crazy enough, and if anything having your entire team shit the bed at the same time isn't the worst case scenario.

3. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

Losing to Billy after trade raping him would have been poetic, but Russ refused to let that happen. Will be very interesting to see how CMC looks, but if he returns to 2019 form, you potentially have the top two players in fantasy right now.

4. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

That one hurt. With the chance to keep your division lead, you lost to an Alan team starting three players on the Jersey teams. Between the weather in Cleveland, byes, and mid-game injuries, this was a Murphy's Law game, but as mentioned your team could not afford an injury to a core player and Golladay will be difficult to replace.

5. Zacherman (Last Week: 4th)

The schedule gods smiled on you this week, as a loss would have been devastating heading into this week's showdown. On the plus side, Davante looked really good and Scary Terry is off bye. On the down side, all of your RBs appear to be injured and Lamar isn't the same this year.

6. Esco (Last Week: 6th)

Kamara and Evans showed up, but difficult matchups proved to be too much for the rest of your squad and you blew the chance at taking over the top seed. Your team continues to confuse me, as your Bucs should theoretically be headed in the wrong direction due to AB and Fat Lenny asking for touches, but your Lions may make up for that with Golladay's injury. I have a feeling you will stay in 6th for the rest of the season no matter what.

7. Gutman (Last Week: 8th)

There he is! The trades finally paid off, as Rodgers looked to be in MVP form, Metcalf continues to ruin Barnard's life, and Rob Woods made us all smile. Dobbins even had a good day on your bench, so there was no way to lose. This team is an RB2 away from jumping into the top four.

8. Barnard (Last Week: 10th)

Last week was a huge win for your playoff hopes, and while you did break 100, your fantasy "defense" is still pretty insane. Your opponents have scored the same amount of points as Billy's team this year (somehow Alan and Esco's opponents have scored less than that), and this week you get Nick. You probably need to win 3 of your last 5 to feel comfortable, and with Chubb coming back, it's still in play. I can't wait to see how you fuck it up.

9. Kumpf (Last Week: 7th)

My team has averaged 94 points per week, but if you asked anyone in this league (myself included) if my team has ever broken 100, I think we would all say no. What a forgettable season. Zeke and Gurley on the block. (and I've broken 100 three times)

10. Bennett (Last Week: 11th)

You will likely be the only team in ESPN Fantasy that misses the playoffs with Dalvin Cook. Some of that is bad luck from an injury/COVID perspective, but losses to Billy, Gutman and me really hurt. You have the toughest schedule left in the league, so it would be a huge upset if you went on a run at this point.

11. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)

The Mike Davis Experience comes to an end this week, and while Damien Harris appears to be RB1 in New England for the moment, I'm not sure how valuable that is. I put your team as the last one still alive for the NiJo slot, so wins and losses mean a lot less than just scoring points moving forward. So... score points I guess?

12. Alan (Last Week: 12th)

The exception to the rule this season. Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, and Michael Thomas should theoretically be the 30-point studs that you need to compete for the playoffs. Instead, Allen has fizzled while Jones and Thomas have struggled to stay healthy. Your "defense" somehow has you just a game back in the division, but you need an injury miracle to stay in that race. Might be worth looking to trade Thomas to a team with a more settled playoff spot to keep your season alive.

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

The NiJo spot was your only real hope at the playoffs, but last week may have sunk that ship. You now need to make up 16 points per game on AGD, with five other teams to pass as well. Your toughest decision will be whether to pay Barnard or pull a Donny and retire in disgrace.

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Your CMC trade for depth while he was injured netted you a total of...zero wins. Avoiding the Shot Spot is really the only motivation at this point.

Matchup of the Week: Marco vs. Zacherman

Most weeks this season, picking the MotW has been a slog. The best teams have beaten up on the worst, and we haven't really had many showdowns or playoff previews. That changed this week, with several options for this spot. But the Grandaddy of them all is the de facto Division Championship game between Marco and Z. Because Marco has a 30 point lead on Z, everyone in contention for the NiJo slot should be pulling for him to take the division lead.

The actual matchup should align well with everyone's rooting interest. Z's path to victory will require Lamar, JTT, and Andrews to put up 60+ against their opposing defenses, which does not seem very likely, especially if Taylor is limited. On top of that, Marco has some pretty nice matchups, and even if CMC doesn't get a full workload, I'm forecasting Marco to win big. It's not like anyone ever goes wrong by betting on the Hispanics to come through right?

Pick: Marco
MotW Record: 6-2

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

49ers (+7) vs. Packers

Chiefs (-10) vs. Panthers

Bear (+7) at Titans

Lions (+4) at Vikings

Dolphins (+6) at Cardinals

Charger (+2.5) vs. Raiders

Last Week: 3-2
2020 Record: 22-20-2 (-0.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)