The value of a player in fantasy football depends primarily on two things: talent and situation. Some players are going to be good no matter where they play, and some will suck no matter what, but for the most part they are somewhere in the middle. That's never been more evident than 2020, as we've seen the situation change drastically for several players, sometimes from week-to-week.
Take the Cowboys. Before Dak got hurt, they had the QB1, RB3, three top 25 WRs, and a top 10 TE. Since then, absolute garbage. I have to assume they'll bounce back a little bit, but with all the O-Line injuries they're facing, even if the QB play improves, the ceiling is much lower than it was just a month ago. Situational changes have also played a huge role for players like James Robinson (random no-name who benefitted from a very sad COVID situation), Chase Claypool (WR1 when Diontae is hurt, special teams player when Diontae's playing), and Kareem Hunt (RB2 with Chubb active, RB1 when he's not).
Most people in this league have some sense of this (other than Barnard, who has a very odd sense of both talent and situation, as displayed by his continued loyalty to Melvin Gordon and the Patriots), but no one takes advantage as much as Levine. His year-over-year dominance has been truly amazing, and his strategy is pretty much unchanged since he took over for Kimmel: draft a deep team with a few upside picks, but don't over-rely on any player. He doesn't tend to make trades (this year aside), but he never really needs to. And now he's on pace for a chef's hat despite losing Dak and trading for a damaged Mixon.
(Takes reverse JuJu hat off)
Playoff Picture
This Sunday is November 1st, which means it's time to take a look at the playoff picture. Below I'll run through each of the playoff spots, and take a look at which team is the favorite and who else is in play.
Levine Division Champ
Favorite: Levine
In The Hunt: Esco
This is clearly a two-man race, as Esco has kept pace with Levine every step of the way since losing to him Week 2. The tiebreak here is Points Scored, so the head-to-head matchup isn't as devastating as it looks, and Esco is only 17 points back. This will be a fun race to the finish, and the two schedules here are pretty similar as well. The loser will also likely be in line for a bye, so it may not actually matter who wins the division.
AGD Division Champ
Favorite: AGD
In The Hunt: Weissbard
Another two man race, though Alan and I are still technically alive, this one still has a big matchup in Week 11. AGD has a one game lead right now, but faces a schedule mixed with the top teams and the bottom teams, while Weissbard's is more balanced leading up to a potentially massive Rivalry Week with Esco. The winner will have a shot at a bye, but it's very possible that these two will meet in the first round of the playoffs as well.
Gutman Division "Champ"
Favorite: Zacherman
In The Hunt: Marco, Gutman
This cesspool will need to crown a champion, but outside of record, this division actually has three of the top eight teams in the Power Rankings below. And from a scheduling perspective, Zacherman, Marco, and Gutman still have to play each other, with most of them facing Nick and/or Billy as well. I don't see any one team making a run to 9 wins, but we're not talking about the NFC East here either. I give Z a small edge but this will change weekly.
Wild Cards
Favorites: Esco, Weissbard
In The Hunt: Barnard, Marco
This may be the easiest spot to project right now, with the losers of the Levine and AGD divisions overwhelmingly likely to take the Wild Card spots. Barnard's record and Marco's team strength technically keep them alive here, but that's much more likely to matter for our next spot.
NiJo Spot
Favorite: Marco
In The Hunt: Barnard, Ajay, Bennett, Kumpf, Nick, Gutman
This is the first year in awhile where one team hasn't gotten fucked by the schedule to make them the obvious choice here. The loser of Marco/Z seems like the front-runner right now, and while Barnard would be next in line, his team is predictably headed in the wrong direction. The fun situation is if Marco wins the division, because at that point there are six teams within 60 points (8.5ppg) of Barnard. I like this spot the most because it keeps Nick alive in what would be one of the more unlikely playoff pushes in FALAFEL history.
MotW Record: 5-2
2020 Record: 19-18-2 (-1.44 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)
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