Week 12 Preview

 It's a short week, we're past the trade deadline, and hopefully none of you are perusing the FALAFEL blog on Thanksgiving, so I'll keep this brief. After a quick review of the Playoff Picture, I'll use the obvious gimmick of listing one thing each team can be thankful for this season. Enjoy the long weekend and don't give your families the 'Rona.

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. AGD (Best Regular Season Record, AGD Division Champ, Bye)
2. Weissbard (Wild Card 1, Bye)
3. Esco (Levine Division Champ)
4. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
5. Levine (Wild Card 2)
6. Bennett (NiJo Spot)

These last two regular season weeks have the potential for chaos. Seeds 2-6 above all have the same record, and Barnard and I are a game back, so things could shift a lot from week to week. Gutman is 27 points back from the NiJo spot, so he's still alive, but Zacherman is next at 88 points which is where I draw the line for the playoffs. Luckily the schedule gods (Felix at League Lobster) made it so the top 8 teams by record are playing each other this week, which makes for a wildly entertaining Thanksgiving week, and the first expansion of the Matchup of the Week in 2020.

Week 12 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)
Thankful for: Baby Lily. Weiss has a lot to be thankful for this year: the top QB (and fantasy player period), two healthy top 15 RBs plus Ekeler waiting in the wings with Gio as just excess depth, and three top 8 receivers. His TE situation got a one week boost, but now it's back to being his Achilles heel. Either way, the emergence of Dadbard is enough to take the cake here.

2. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

Thankful for: Baker Mayfield and Cleveland weather. Obscure choices here, but if Baker took a step forward this year and/or it was ever not hailing in Cleveland, Kareem Hunt would not be a borderline RB1 on the season. Instead, Baker regressed and loves to check down, and Cleveland stayed Cleveland, so Hunt may carry this team to the best Regular Season Record award and a bye.

3. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

Thankful for: Russell Wilson. Marco has built a pretty strong team over the course of the season, but before he collected the Panthers backfield and Gibson took the lead back role in DC, he essentially had a one man team in Russ. That carried him to early victories over me and Ajay, which kept him alive to take over Gutman's sad excuse for a division.

4. Esco (Last Week: 2nd)

Thankful for: Touchdowns. All season Esco has put up big numbers, but they have been fueled by absurd TD totals, and relatively minimal yards/receptions. It's carried him to the verge of a bye so far, but regression has been looming all season. We'll see if the season of giving continues to gift Esco with repeated 6-point boosts.

5. Bennett (Last Week: 7th)

Thankful for: Free Agent Auctions. Yes, Dalvin has been great, but if Bennett didn't have Chase Claypool and Nyheim Hines, he would have been eliminated weeks ago. Those two, in addition to James Robinson, Justin Herbert, and Justin Jefferson, have been among the best free agent additions of the year.

6. Gutman (Last Week: 6th)

Thankful for: The NiJo Rule. It took this team awhile to find it's footing, but there's enough talent here to make a late run. That wouldn't be possible without the NiJo slot, as Gut's slow start would have sunk him if he had to make the playoffs on record alone.

7. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)

Thankful for: Patrick Mahomes. Similar to Marco, Barnard was carried early by his QB, which helped make up for a roster that was lacking in other areas. Unlike Marco, Barnard decided to use trades to make his team worse, so he's still basically Mahomes or bust.

8. Levine (Last Week: 4th)

Thankful for: Alan. Without Alan gift-wrapping a top five QB for the immortal Dalton Schultz, Levine's freefall would look even worse. I was hoping the haircut would sink Herbert, but the Jets wouldn't let that happen. Regardless, Thielen might have COVID and Mixon is likely out for the year, so Levine's grip on a playoff spot may be loosening.

9. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)

Thankful for: Felix at League Lobster. My team is not great. It's not fun. It has a limited ceiling. But through the luck of scheduling, I control my own destiny if I can beat a perpetually underwhelming Barnard team, and a long left for dead Nick team. I could say that my team is just rounding into form and I'm all aboard the Gus Bus, but I'm not delusional about my chances this year.

10. Zacherman (Last Week: 9th)

Thankful for: Davante Adams. Zacherman's team was pretty dependent on the Ravens passing game, which is probably the reason he was eliminated last week. But it's still nice to know that you hit on an expensive pick who is the WR1 on the season despite missing 2.5 games. Adams is current outscoring all other WRs by over 4 points per game. Great draft pick, see you next year.

11. Alan (Last Week: 11th)

12. Ajay (Last Week:12th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th) 

Thankful for: These four teams can be thankful that I talked about them last week.

Matchups of the Week: 

Matchup 1: Barnard vs. Kumpf
We start with the two of the worst teams still alive, but this is essentially an elimination game. For me it absolutely is, and while Barnard would still likely be in play for the NiJo slot, he would need to make up some serious ground in Week 13, when he loses Evans and RoJo.
For this week, Barnard has the obvious edge at QB and TE plus RB1 with Chubb taking on the Jags, but outside of that, we're even or I have the advantage. I like having last licks, but considering last licks this week means relying on the Bears passing game, the advantage is negated. When all else fails, bet on Mahomes.

Pick: Barnard

Matchup 2: Esco vs. Marco
The stakes here are not as dire, but the potential reward is larger. The winner here stays in play for a bye as well as the Best Regular Season record prize, and Marco will straight up clinch the division if he wins. The loser is still in pretty good shape based on Points Scored, but will make Week 13 (vs. Weissbard and Gutman respectively) more of a must-win. That means Esco needs this a hell of a lot more than Marco does.
Unfortunately for Esco, half his team is banged up, and while Ben and Hockenson should play, Swift and Julio are a lot more iffy. The other weird factor in this matchup is that more than half of Esco's ideal lineup plays Thursday, while Marco just has his token Washington players. That's going to make this showdown even more disjointed than usual, and unless Esco can take a massive lead into Sunday, he's in trouble. Spoiler alert: He's in trouble.

Pick: Marco

Matchup 3: Bennett vs. Weissbard
Weissbard is in a very similar position to Esco, where one win over the next two weeks will clinch the playoffs given his high point total. Also like Esco, he has two matchups that are not going to be walkovers. Bennett is currently up 20 in the NiJo spot race, so more than anything, he needs to keep putting up 100+. He also has a chance to move up in the standings if Esco and/or Levine loses. Lots of moving parts here.

The highlight of this matchup is the QB showdown, and while Kyler is obviously favored there, if Cam keeps it close, this gets very interesting. Weissbard's RBs are hampered by tough matchups, injuries to their QBs, or both, so Bennett has a huge advantage there, but Weiss makes up for that with his absurd receiver situation. I think this comes down to Claypool and Ebron having big games. They both did it last week, but I can't see lightning striking twice (or 12 times in Claypool's case).

Pick: Weissbard

Matchup 4: AGD vs. Levine

A win for AGD essentially clinches them Best Regular Season Record and a bye, as they get Billy in Rivalry Week, so they would be able to take two weeks off ahead of the Semi-Finals. The much more interesting situation surrounds Levine. After starting 7-0, he has lost four straight and gets AGD and Bennett to end the season. Those are by no means easy wins, so we could potentially see the most epic collapse in FALAFEL history here. He does have a 60 point advantage in the NiJo slot race, so wins and losses may not matter, but heading into the playoffs on a six game losing streak would not make anyone confident about Levine's odds.

This matchup is listed in the MotW section based on the stakes, but not based on the actual matchup. Levine has the walking wounded at RB, and has to hope that David Montgomery can play, which is never a good situation to be in. AGD not only has a better roster, but also great matchups, so I don't think this one is close at all.

Pick: AGD

MotW Record: 7-4

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Lions (+3) vs. Texans

Football Team (+3) at Cowboys

Dolphins (-7) at Jets

Raiders (-3) at Falcons

Colts (-3) vs. Titans

Bucs (+3.5) vs. Chiefs

Bears (+8) at Packers

Last Week: 3-2
2020 Record: 30-28-3 (-2.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)