With the Trade Deadline coming up Friday, there are still several questions looming over the league. Can Weissbard runaway with the #1 seed? Will over-performing teams like Bennett, Barnard, and myself make an actual playoff push? Can Gutman stay alive long enough to defend his title? Will Esco con anyone into taking RoJo?
So while the offline chatter is all about trade negotiations, and next week we will focus entirely on the playoff races, this week we can take some time to look at the teams that are out of it, and figure out what went wrong. Considering a whopping 9 of our 14 teams are .500 or better (and Gutman has an outside shot at the NiJo spot), this deep dive will focus only on the teams that don't really have a shot at the playoffs even if they win out, starting with the most obvious failure in FALAFEL history.
Billy
What went wrong?
For better parts of the last decade, Billy has held firm to the strategy of drafting two highly priced RBs and hoping to get lucky with injuries and depth. It has paid off enough to get him a chef's coat, but it's definitely a boom/bust strategy. This year he went bigger than ever, taking the consensus top two RBs in Saquon and CMC, but the luck factor took a turn early when they both got injured for essentially the entire fantasy season. His depth amounted to DJ Moore, Marvin Jones, and Jared Cook, which I didn't hate at the time, but they have all failed to live up to even modest expectations. Joe Burrow was a nice $1 pick, but there was really no other value in the draft. Combine that with an abysmal CMC trade return, and this was just a nightmare season. Even your potential silver lining of beating me after getting 40 fucking points from Devontae Booker and Rex Burkhead fell short when Foles and Jimmy Graham got outscored by Allen Robinson.
What could he have done differently?
Outside of "not spending $145 on two players", I think you should think about investing in some handcuffs. That would have hurt your ceiling elsewhere, and likely still wouldn't have given you a shot at the playoffs, but it would have made the season a little less brutal.
Nick
What went wrong?
Unlike Billy, Nick drafted a team that balanced high end talent and depth, which made him one of my favorites coming out of the draft. However, like Billy, injuries killed him. Godwin, Mostert, and A.J. Brown were never healthy at the same time, and depth pieces that did stay healthy like Jarvis Landry and James White were total busts. Even now, a core of Brady/CEH/Moster/Brown/Godwin is average or better in this league, but somehow Nick is 1-9.
What could he have done differently?
Throughout the season I preached patience for this team, with the thought that when it got healthy, it would make moves toward the NiJo spot. Unfortunately it never got healthy. So in hindsight, an early trade for an RB2 would have made sense, as that position has been cripplingly bad most of the season.
Ajay
What went wrong?
Another combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. Ajay got next to nothing from Courtland Sutton, one big week from Kittle, and random good games from Carson, but the bigger issues have been Kenyan Drake and JuJu. Those guys were healthy enough to start, but rarely produced at the level commensurate with their draft cost. Just a Murphy's Law season all around.
What could he have done differently?
The answer here is probably "drafted better players", but that can be said for any disappointing team. Trading Kittle when he first got hurt would have helped, but similar to the other teams here, this team never really had a chance.
Alan
What went wrong?
Michael Thomas was straight bad luck, but Alan dropped $18 on Cam Akers, who responded with 21.9 points for the entire season, despite only missing two games. That may go down as the worst draft pick of the season when it comes to just lack of production unrelated to injury. His TE draft debacle also didn't help, though Goedert showed flashes at time.
What could he have done differently?
Spending those 18 Akers dollars elsewhere would have been a good start, as well as trading Thomas early, but the biggest issue is that Alan got off to a good start that was clearly fool's gold, so he didn't make any moves. Josh Allen and Aaron Jones were great picks, but this team missing the playoffs can come down to complacency. Thank god we don't have to put a team name that came from a random GroupMe like on an oven mitt.
And with that, we say goodbye to those teams.
Playoff Picture
If the season ended today (pending Week 10 Stat Corrections), the seeds would be:
1. Weissbard (AGD Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record, Bye)
2. Esco (Levine Division Champ, Bye)
3. Levine (Wild Card 1)
4. AGD (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. Bennett (NiJo Spot)
Barnard, Zacherman, and myself are all a game out of playoff spots (requiring tiebreakers), and Gutman is also within 60 of the NiJo spot, so that rounds out the teams that are still alive. Zacherman and I are playing a de facto elimination game, and Gutman needs to start gaining ground quickly, so this group could be pared down further as soon as next week.
Trade Grade 13
Barnard receives Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, and Rams D/ST
Esco receives Julio Jones and Boston Scott
Fucking Barnard. He "upgraded" from Melvin Gordon to RoJo at RB2 which I would argue is essentially the same thing, while going from a top 5 WR to a WR20ish and I guess adding a D/ST. He also loses both Evans and RoJo for Week 13, so he basically guaranteed himself a loss there.
Esco, essentially did the exact opposite, and with Swift getting a starting RB workload, it's a good bit of business. I already had him in 2nd below, so no real change there, but Weissbard vs. Esco Week 13 looks a lot like a Regular Season Championship Game.
Grades:
Barnard: C-
Esco: A
Trade Grade 14
Gutman receives Brandon Aiyuk and Steelers D/ST
Kumpf receives DeVante Parker and Dolphins D/ST
So this is the trade that vaults Gutman and/or Kumpf into playoff contention? I don't see it. Even after the trade neither team is favored in their must-win matchups this week.
I like this trade slightly more for Gutman because Aiyuk is the most talented here and Gutman can absorb the bye week with his current lineup. DeVante seems to have taken a back seat in terms of targets and priority since Tua came on the stage. The potential argument in Kumpf's favor is that the Dolphins have three extremely winnable games in a row where the coaches might take the training wheels off of Tua and the defense should be able to rack up some significant points. But not since the Barndog Pats D/ST days has a defense carried a team to victory. So while I was forced to write about this trade for the blog, I doubt we will speak of it ever again.
Grades:
Gutman: B-
Kumpf: B-
2020 Record: 27-26-3 (-2.52 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)
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