Everything is coming up Kumpf. In the last week, I set the all-time scoring record for our league, took a lead in Levine's still unnamed division, extended my points scored lead to over 10ppg more than second place, and got a job (After sending out 130 applications and doing 60 interviews. Kill me.). But as quickly as everything has come together, it can all fall apart this weekend. Losing to Barnard would be an unspeakable travesty, and coming on the same weekend that UT plays Oklahoma, Liverpool plays Man City, and the Yankees play the Red Sox, my mood come Monday could be vastly different than it is right now. Hopefully there's nothing I can do to lose the job, but everything else could easily go to shit.
Trade Grade 3
Kumpf receives Jarvis Landry and Wendell Smallwood
BAM receives Cooper Kupp and Javorius Allen
Before even talking about the specifics, BAM making a trade is notable in and of itself. I believe this is their first trade as a duo, and I will continue to believe this until proven otherwise. Unlike most trades, this one had no negotiation at all, as I sent out the offer on Thursday morning, and it was accepted as Cooper Kupp was running train all over the Vikings secondary. How you view this trade on my side depends on how you view Kupp's future. Will he continue his dominance, or will the Rams' socialist offense keep him relatively in check moving forward? I like Kupp, but I prefer the high floor of Juice, especially in Baker's offense. From BAM's perspective, they get at worst a slight downgrade at WR in exchange for what is sadly an upgrade at RB. That's a win for them and a TBD for me.
Kumpf Grade: B-
BAM Grade: A
Playoff Odds
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams make the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams make the playoffs
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams make the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams make the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams make the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 1-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams make the playoffs
We've already doubled the number of 4-0 teams in this league since 2012, and there's a decent shot that we do the same with 5-0 teams. Zacherman should make quick work of a struggling Belfer, and while Marco and Fireball Dan have tougher matchups in Levine and Bennett, at least one of them should emerge unscathed. On the flip side, BAM and Reap are on the verge of elimination and could double our 0-5 teams since 2012.
This week is unsurprisingly the most important for the 2-2 teams. There is a clear top 4 in the league, so two of Levine, Gutman, Bennett should have a leg up on the playoffs with a win this week, while a Barnard win would just be a sign of the apocalypse.
Team of the Week - Kumpf
Again, hate putting myself here, but when you set the all-time scoring record by over 5 points, you're the team of the week.
No matchups were within like 20 points this week, so lineup decisions were irrelevant. In lieu of these sections, I'll point out that Reap is in line for the Christmas Card right now with 66.7 points in Week 3 (He also has the second lowest total. Be better Reap).
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Marco vs. Levine
This is such a fun matchup. Marco's team could not be more top heavy, especially with Godwin on the bye, while Levine has depth almost to a fault. ESPN likes Marco's week way more than I do, especially with the Vikings playing in Philly. Kamara and Gordon could easily break 60 between them, but the rest of the team may not, and the winner here should be in the 120s. To cap it all off, Marco needs to root for Kamara and against AP on MNF, which is just fantastic. Assuming Levine's injury situations work themselves out, I'm going to go ahead and #Kurse my rival.
Pick: Levine
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/1
NFL Bets
Ravens (-3) at Browns - Loss
Chiefs (-3) vs. Jaguars - Win
Panthers (-7) vs. Giants - Loss
Chargers (-4) vs. Raiders - Win
Eagles (-3) vs. Vikings - Loss
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018 Record: 13-10-2 (+1.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NFL Prop Bets Check-in
The Good
Packers under 10 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
The Bad
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
The Ugly
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Falcons to win the Super Bowl
Texans to win the Super Bowl
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing (LOL)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing (currently 32nd, 171 yards behind leader)
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving (currently 34th, 230 yards behind leader)
NCAA Football Bets
Georgia Tech (-4) at Louisville - Win
Maryland (+18) at Michigan - Loss
Missouri (+1) at South Carolina - Loss
Northwestern (+11) at Michigan State - Win
Syracuse (-4) vs. Pittsburgh - Loss
Iowa (-7) at Minnesota - Win
Arizona State (+3) at Colorado - Loss
Kentucky (+6) at Texas A&M - Push
Notre Dame (-6) at Virginia Tech - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018 Record: 21-22-2 (-4.03 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (Pick) vs. West Ham - Win
Leicester (-0.5) vs. Everton - Loss
Fulham (+1) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Crystal Palace (+185) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-7 (-3.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Juventus (-2) vs. Young Boys - Win
AEK Athens (+0.5) vs. Benfica - Loss
Tottenham +0.5) vs. Barcelona - Loss
Napoli (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
Inter Milan (Pick) at PSV - Win
Last Week: 4-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Roma (-300) vs. Victoria Plzen - Win
Real Madrid (-170) at CSKA Moscow - Loss
Last Week 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
MLB Win Totals
D-Backs under 85.5 - Win
Orioles over 73 - Loss
Cubs under 94.5 - Loss
Rockies under 82 - Loss
Astros over 96.5 - Win
Royals under 71.5 - Win
Angels under 84.5 - Win
Dodgers under 96.5 - Win
Brewers under 84.5 - Loss
Yankees over 94.5 - Win
A's over 74.5 - Win
Phillies over 75.5 - Win
Pirates over 73 - Win
Padres over 69.5 - Loss
Rays over 77.5 - Win
Blue Jays over 81 - Loss
Nationals under 92.5 - Win
I won 11/17 bets, at $10 per bet gave me a profit of $40 total. My overall O/U projections went 16/29. I still have the Indians to win the World Series at +750, and will likely hedge if they advance to the LCS.
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