Week 3 Recap

We're now three weeks into the season and both the NFL and FALAFEL have three undefeated teams remaining. There is a team that was aggressively going all-in this season, without regard for long term team construction methods (Rams/Marco), a team led by Pat Mahomes and an impressive assortment of skill players (Chiefs/Zacherman), and a long time sadsack franchise who hasn't had any real success in decades but somehow hasn't lost yet (Dolphins/Weissbard). These teams are all pretty likely to move to 4-0 this week, as they take on three of the bottom 6 teams in the league.

Trade Grade 1
Kumpf receives Ezekiel Elliott, Andy Dalton, and Rishard Matthews
Marco receives Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, and Marvin Jones
I'm a week late on this one, and I'm partially grading myself, so I'll be brief. Marco gave up a stud flex option for a clear upgrade at QB and WR. This was inevitable since he blew his load on those RBs in the draft, but his weekly lineup is a hell of a lot more balanced now, Kirk's weird bed shitting last week aside. From my perspective, I upgraded by RB1, while giving up my backup QB and a WR2/Flex. It raises the ceiling of my team with only a slight hit to my depth. This is a win-win, but I'm giving myself the slightest of edges just because it's apparently possible that Kirk is terrible.
Kumpf Grade: A-
Marco Grade: B+

Trade Grade 2
Alan receives Alfred Morris
Weissbard recieves Sammy Watkins
Yawn. Last week was likely Alf's best game of the season. Breida went down, and Jimmy played most of the game, neither of which is likely to happen moving forward. I guess he's an upgrade at RB2 from Tarik Cohen? But really neither of them are startable on real teams. Also, Alan how do you continually fuck up the formatting of your team name? For the surprisingly 3-0 Weissbard, this is just a swap of flex options. Sammy's ceiling is clearly higher, but given the format of this league, swapping a WR for a RB is usually a downgrade. You were always fucked if Gurley or Quon got hurt, but at least Alf provided some sort of insurance policy. I like this more for Alan simply because RB>WR, but that's not saying much.
Alan Grade: C+
Weissbard Grade: D+

Playoff Odds

After Week 3:
100% (5/5) of 3-0 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams make the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams make the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams make the playoffs

After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams make the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams make the playoffs

As mentioned above, our three undefeated teams could be primed to double the 4-0 teams we've had since 2012, which is pretty incredible. On the flip side, things aren't looking great for the dregs of the league, as only 2 teams have ever made the playoffs with 0 or 1 win through four weeks. Of the 1-2 and 0-3 teams, Levine is the clear favorite to emerge given his point total, the division breakdown, and recent history, while the Ajay/BAM/Reap trio are in a lot of trouble already.

Team of the Week - Weissbard
Bennett's high score was built almost entirely on Matty Ice, and he didn't even need those points to beat Reap, so Weiss gets the trophy here. Other than a misstep on his TE dart throw, his lineup was nearly perfect, and he needed every one of those points to take down Levine. His Deshaun/Gurley/Barkley trio looks to be good for 60+ each week, so if his receivers can hold their own, he'll be competitive no matter what. That in and of itself is a huge upgrade for Fireball Dan, but the prospect of 4-0 is a real possibility against the desperate and discouraged Reap.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Leonard Fournette over TJ Yeldon
Lots of close games this week, but no really strategic choices actually swung matchups. So when all else fails, give it to spite. Yes, Barnard only started an injured Fournette because he was fighting a wicked appletini hangover. But given that this is likely his only win of the season, and over Ajay of all people, getting the W while starting an injured player only makes it more sweet. I would imagine that Ajay will be angry about this for years to come.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Fitztragic over Drew Brees
Yes, Gutman still beat me by 0.4. But it took until literally the last play of MNF, and with Brees he would have been able to breath easy by 4pm on Sunday. Levine, Ajay and myself all made less than ideal decisions that would have turned an L into a W, but all of them were defensible. Benching Brees indoors is unforgiveable.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - Kumpf vs. Bennett
I hate putting myself in this section, but not only is this the only matchup between above .500 teams, but the winner will take the lead in our still unnamed division. It's also a matchup with a lot of drama. Matty Ice and Dalton facing each other, Agholor/Ertz vs. Ajayi, Buck Allen poaching TDs from Collins, and a lack of Cam/Funchess due to bye. The matchup may be dictated by TNF, because if Diggs and Kupp show up, it will be hard for Bennett to catch up, and then I have Kelce and Sanders for last licks. But if tonight hits the under, Bennett may be a surprising division leader through four weeks. These picks have been terrible for me so far, but I'm going to assume that means I'm due. I done #Kursed myself.
Pick: Kumpf
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-3

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/17

NFL Bets
Bengals (+5) at Falcons - Win
Cowboys (-3) vs. Lions - Loss
Bucs (+3) at Bears - Loss
Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals - Push
Saints (-3) at Giants - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2018 Record: 11-7-2 (+2.15 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

For my NFL prop bets, Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards is looking grrrrreat.

NCAA Football Bets
NC State (-5) vs. Virginia - Win
Texas (-9) at Kansas State - Loss
Louisville (+7) vs. Florida State - Win
Washington State (+2) vs. Utah - Win
Duke (-5) vs. Virginia Tech - Loss
Penn State (+4) vs. Ohio State - Win
Last Week: 2-5
2018 Record: 17-18-1 (-3.56 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Loss
Last Week: 1-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 6-9-4 (-5.02 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-6 (-2.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 4-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-1-1 (+2.07 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1.00 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/26
Astros (+110) at Blue Jays - Loss
A's (-101) at Mariners - Win
9/27
Rays (+140) vs. Yankees - Loss
Last Week: 3-0
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)