Week 1 Recap

Well that was a doozy of a Week 1. We had twenty non-QBs break 20 points (including James Conner dropping 30 on me as predicted), half the league broke 100, and my Matchup of the Week ended up as a thriller. Even with all those huge performances, I don't know that anything in our league was too surprising. Marco had an absurd week, but his roster setup puts performances like that on the table if everything breaks right. The three lowest scores were Barnard, Bennett and Alan, who had the three lowest draft grades. Everyone else was at least respectable, and that should make for a typically competitive FALAFEL season.

On to the usual recap format.

Playoff Odds

After Week 1:
50% of 1-0 teams make the playoffs
39% of 0-1 teams make the playoffs

After Week 2:
54% of 2-0 teams make the playoffs
50% of 1-1 teams make the playoffs
15% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs

It's obviously early, so these numbers are a long way from being relevant. However it is interesting that 1-0 teams and 1-1 teams have the same playoff odds. The only takeaway so far is that being 0-2 is a bad thing. Shocker, I know.

Team of the Week - Zacherman
Yes, Marco put up the most points. But I'm also not sure if it's sustainable given how much he relies on his RBs. In my mind, Z put up a more impressive performance. He took down Gut in the the Matchup of the Week, and did so without getting anything from an injured Doug Baldwin, a predictably boom/bust Jimmy Graham, and an extremely questionable start for Jeremy Hill. Mahomes and Hill looks like a truly terrifying connection, his RB stable should be solid enough, and that's without even considering how Nuk Hopkins can blow up. The Matchup of the Week may have been a preview of the Stevens Bowl.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Pat Mahomes over Big Ben
There's nothing I hate more than a Z-Ball lovefest, but we didn't have too many close matchups. Big Ben has historically struggled on the road, but after Hard Knocks I had zero faith in the Browns, and Mahomes was still a pretty big unknown going against a supposedly formidable Chargers D. I probably would have gone with Ben, and I would have been wrong.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Reap starting Mike Wallace over Tyler Lockett
This one hurt. The logic made sense on paper with Alshon ruled out, but the Foles factor would have scared me away, especially at the flex position. Getting a goose egg was obviously unexpected, but Lockett looked like a safer play in general, and would have won the week for Reap.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - BAM vs. Alan
As mentioned above, 0-2 is a historically tough hole to climb out of, so the pressure is already on for these division rivals. Sources say that BAM came close to acquiring Saquon this week, but the deal fell through at the last minute. Luckily, they picked up Philip Lindsay, giving them at least some upside at RB2, which is a hell of a lot more than Alan can say. If you told me a team was starting Nick Foles, Tarik Cohen and Sterling Shephard, I would assume they were ravaged by both bye weeks and injuries. The McKinnon injury obviously hurt, but this team was a mess even before that. Alan couldn't afford to not get Lindsay, and it will show this week.
Pick: BAM
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-1

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/10

NFL Bets
Panthers (+6) at Falcons - Loss
Lions (+6) at 49ers - Win
Patriots (-1) at Jaguars - Loss
Cowboys (-3) vs. Giants - Win
Seahawks (+4) at Bears - Loss
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018 Record: 5-4-1 (+0.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Oklahoma (-18) at Iowa State - Loss
Georgia Tech (-4) at Pittsburgh - Loss
LSU (+10) at Auburn - Win
Duke (+6) at Baylor - Win
Wisconsin (-21) vs. BYU - Loss
Missouri (-6) at Purdue - Loss
Arizona State (-5) at San Diego State - Loss
Fresno State (-1) at UCLA - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018 Record: 11-11-1 (-1.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Spurs (Pick) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Cardiff (+2) at Chelsea - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 5-8-2 (-4.07 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Huddersfield (+220) vs. Crystal Palace - Loss
Southampton (+120) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-5 (-1.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/12
Reds (+166) vs. Dodgers - Loss
Giants (+124) vs. Braves - Loss
Twins (+190) vs. Yankees - Win
9/13
Cardinals (+160) vs. Dodgers - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2018 Record: 28-43 (-8.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)