Week 2 Recap

Week 1 was the week of the skill players, but the QBs came back with a vengeance in Week 2. Pat Mahomes threw 6 TDs, FitzMagic is doing crazy shit and wasn't even owned in our league (despite Alan owning 3 unstartable QBs), and the entire league averaged a higher passer rating than Aaron Rodgers' career rating. This league does appear to have a pretty clear upper and lower class, but after two weeks, it's more likely that no one knows anything. I do feel like we're over due for a trade however, so hopefully we get some action soon.

Playoff Odds

After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams make the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams make the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams make the playoffs

After Week 3:
100% (5/5) of 3-0 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams make the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams make the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams make the playoffs

It's crazy that just three weeks in, we already have a 100% historical playoff lock, but that's how it's gone in the past. Marco, Weissbard, Z and myself will all feel pretty good about ourselves if we win this week. But even one loss is a night and day change, and the leaders can fall back to the pack very quickly.


Team of the Week - Zacherman
I know what you're all saying. "But Kumpf, your team came within a garbage time Seahawks TD from setting the all time scoring record!" I know, it was pretty impressive. "But Kumpf, you gave this to Zacherman last week, and this league HATES praising Zacherman!" I know, it's really unfortunate. "But Kumpf, both Alan and Barnard broke 80!" I know, but this section is not about charity. This is about greatness, and Zacherman's lineup not only would have beaten every team other than mine, but his fucking bench would have beaten half the teams in this league as well. That's dominance.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Chris Hogan over all of his other flex options
Gutman's team is unquestionably deep, but one of the issues with a deep team is the lineup decisions. After Hogan shat the bed Week 1, it would have been easy to look at Jalen Ramsey waiting last week and decide to roll with Kerryon Johnson, Marlon Mack, Allen Hurns, or Theo Riddick. Gut kept the faith, and it rewarded him.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Pretty much everything Ajay did
Ajay's team is slightly less deep, and a huge issue with a marginally deep team is that the lineup decisions really suck. Ajay could have started Rivers over Luck, Marshawn over Barber, or John Brown over Corey Davis, and any of those moves would have turned the L into a W. Instead, he's 0-2 and playing in a very depressing Matchup of the Week.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - Ajay vs. Barnard
It's a true loser leaves town match. To be fair, the playoff odds are basically identical at 0-2 and 0-3, but to be taken seriously, you gotta win one of your first three games. No one expected much out of Barnard's team, and he has responded by scoring 7 points more over two weeks than my team did in Week 2 alone. Ajay's luck hasn't been great so far, but he's been below average no matter how you slice it. If Fournette is healthy and LeVeon is still out, these starting rosters look pretty close on paper. Ajay's depth is unquestionably superior, but Barnard having a clear edge at multiple positions is pretty shocking. Having said that, Baby Hands is still chosing between multiple third string RBs or WRs for his flex, which is so, so bad. This pick has been a #Kurse so far this year, but betting against Barnard is a good way to turn things around.
Pick: Ajay
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-2

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/17

NFL Bets
Ravens (-5) vs. Broncos - Win
Redskins (+3) vs. Packers - Win
Eagles (-7) vs. Colts - Loss
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders - Win
Cardinals (+6) vs. Bears - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 9-5-1 (+2.44 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Washington State (+4) at USC - Win
Minnesota (+3) at Maryland - Loss
Boston College (-7) at Purdue - Loss
Oregon State (+6) vs. Arizona - Loss
Vanderbilt (+3) vs. South Carolina - Loss
Texas (+4) vs. TCU - Win
Oklahoma State (-13) vs. Texas Tech - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2018 Record: 13-16-1 (-4.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Watford - Push
Burnley (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Win
Cardiff (+2) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 1-3
2018-19 Spread Record: 6-8-4 (-4.02 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Manchester United (-170) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-6 (-2.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)
Liverpool (Pick) vs. PSG - Win
Schalke 04 (Pick) vs. Porto - Push
Red Star (+1) vs. Napoli - Win
Valencia (+0.5) vs. Juventus - Loss
Manchester United (-0.5) at Young Boys - Win
Bayern Munich (-1) at Benfica - Win
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-1-1 (+2.07 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)
CSKA Moscow (+230) at Viktoria Plzen - Loss
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1.00 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/20
Red Sox (+145) at Yankees - Win
9/22
Blue Jays (+130) vs. Rays - Win
Pirates (+110) vs. Brewers - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2018 Record: 31-43 (-4.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)