Week 1 Preview

Not a whole lot has happened since the draft, so this will be quick. The two biggest injuries were to Marqise Lee and Jerick McKinnon, and Weissbard somehow has the move of the year with a $0 Alf Morris pickup that he only got after an unclear tiebreak process with Marco. The most influential news since Baltimore is probably the LeVeon Bell holdout, which makes Ajay's $68 value look more and more like Barnard's $60 Fournette bid. I'm obviously happy about this news, but I'm also fully expecting John Conner to drop 30 on me this week.

Biggest Matchup of Week 1 - Gutman vs. Zacherman
I don't have a ton of information to work with, so I'm going with the only divisional matchup this week. It does include two of my favorite drafts, so this should theoretically be a good matchup. To make it more entertaining, all of the current starters are playing Sunday, so it makes the return of football one long, exhausting day for both Gut and Z. I bet on Pitt this week, but Ben on the road is weirdly terrible, and that limits the ceiling for Team Z. He does get last licks with Howard and Graham, but I can see Brees to Thomas linking up for 50+, and that's going to be hard to overcome. My Stevens Bowl pick should start 1-0.
Pick: Gutman
2017 Matchup of the Week Record: 13-6

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/3

NFL Bets
Eagles (+1) vs. Falcons - Win
Patriots (-6) vs. Texans - Win
Steelers (-4) at Browns - Loss
Vikings (-6) vs. 49ers - Win
Seahawks (+3) at Broncos - Push
2018 Record: 3-1-1 (+1.31 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NFL Props
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Packers under 10 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Falcons to win Super Bowl (+1500)
Texans to win Super Bowl (+2000)
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards (+1400)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing yards (+4000)
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving yards (+265)

The Win Total bets have historically hit 55% of the time, so I'd expect to win around 8 of these. Don't super love the Packers or Titans picks, but I feel pretty confident on the rest.

NCAA Football Bets
Duke (+3) at Northwestern - Win
Nevada (+10) at Vanderbilt - Loss
Memphis (-6) at Navy - Loss
Iowa (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Virginia (+6) at Indiana - Win
California (+3) at BYU - Win
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 8-6-1 (+0.86 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 2-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-5-2 (-1.84 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-3 (+0.05 units)

Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/7
Blue Jays (+190) vs. Indians - Win
Last Week: 0-2
2018 Record: 27-40 (-7.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)