Week 3 Recap

Last week was a Murphy's Law weekend for me. Lost this league matchup without breaking 30 until SNF, lost my other three leagues (including one by 0.18), had my first rough betting week, and Miami lost to the fucking Jets. It can only get better from here, at least that's what I'm telling myself. Belfer and Weissbard also had rough weekends, falling to 0-3. This type of performance is somewhat familiar for Weissbard, as he has the second lowest PAA among active FALAFEL teams, and he ran into Gutman's buzzsaw, but this is entirely new territory for Belfer. After enjoying a top-4 PAA while teamed with Reap, he's reeling after falling to a Marco team that couldn't even crack 75.

Kudos to Zacherman, who not only named his division in the last week, but also picked the best (worst) division so far. He does have three teams above .500, but the average points scored in his division is 253.56, coming in behind BAM (264.3) and Alan (280.36). Alan is obviously the worst here, and he also hasn't named his division yet.

Finally, there's nothing quite like watching Gutman sweat things out as an undefeated team. He's fully aware that his team is a house of cards, and is hoping that no one else realizes it, giving him the ability to swing a trade. Unfortunately for him, he's terrified to trade Rodgers, and knows that no one is paying full price for his Viking receivers. He thought that no one would bid on Wendell Smallwood, because he's Philly's RB3, giving Gutman some "inside" information (full disclosure: Barnard had no idea who Wendell Smallwood was until I asked why he didn't bid on him). Right before waivers processed, Esco sent an inflammatory message in GroupMe, causing Gut to increase his bid from ~$40 to $83, using over 40% of his budget on a player who's not starting on his own team. Like I said, a successful and paranoid Gutman is the best Gutman, though honorable mention goes to Fat Gutman and Food Stamps Gutman (RIP).


Playoff Odds

After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs

After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs

This is always the weird week for playoff odds thanks to Gutman's miracle playoff run from 0-4 a few years back, as well as the fact that no 3-0 team has ever lost the next week. But it's also a big week for delineation, because the difference between 2-2 and 1-3 is pretty large. We currently have five teams at 1-2, so history says the season could already be on the line. None of these five play each other, so we should know a lot more about those teams next week.


Trade Recap
Belfer receives Adrian Peterson
Weissbard receives D'Onta Foreman

LOL. This is obviously a desperation trade between winless teams, but I actually think this was a raping by Weissbard. Peterson has been barely involved on the Saints so far, and it would likely take injuries to both Ingram and Kamara for me to feel comfortable starting him. On the other side, Foreman is already splitting time with Lamar Miller, and could be flex-worthy by later in the season even without injury to Miller.
Belfer Grade: D-
Weissbard Grade: B+


Team of the Week - Alan

Our defending champ gets in the winning column in impressive fashion, taking down undefeated Levine and putting up the weekly high score. He did this all with two arms tied behind his back, as his TE and D/ST combined for 0.6 points. After a rough start to the season, it's encouraging to see guys like Palmer, Cooks, and Baldwin put up big numbers. As mentioned though, this week is also borderline must-win against a truly desperate Belfer team.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Tarik Cohen over Chris Johnson

No one made an amazing decision, but I could see Alan trying to justify his absurd spending on CJ by starting him over Cohen (an extremely savvy pickup post-draft by our defending champ). But he stuck with logic it gave him the win.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Donte Moncrief over Sammy Watkins

There were a lot of terrible lineup decisions this week (Esco, Belfer, Levine and I also cost ourselves wins), but most of them are justifiable. I honestly have no idea what Barnard was thinking here. I would argue that Donte Moncrief is more deserving of being on waivers than he is of being in anyone's starting lineup. Sammy isn't a no-doubt start, but this was terrible.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - BAM!

In my draft recap, I gave this team an F and said "This team could win any given week if the top 4 all explode. But if they even have average weeks, it's likely a loss." Well, this is what is looks like when they explode. BAM's top four would have outscored 5 other teams on their own this week. It's not likely to happen every week, but given this type of potential, along with a solid waiver pickup in Buck Allen, and I'm not completely writing this duo off yet.


Biggest Matchup of Week 4 - Gutman vs. Esco

No obvious choices here this week, so I'll go with the showdown between two of the three highest scoring teams, along with my last two (losing) Matchup of the Week picks. The QB matchup leans heavily towards Gutman, who should get out to a nice early lead thanks to Rodgers. I like the overall depth of Esco's team better, but Gut has slightly better matchups this week. Going into MNF, Tyreek Hill should be a big-game away from taking the lead, but standing in his way is...Chris Thompson? The surprising RB3 on the year will have the chance to ice Gutman's lead, and given the way this year has gone so far, I'm not betting against him. The #Kurse isn't officially back yet, but if Gut loses, I'm ready to bust it out next week.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-2


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 4 Bets
Packers (-7) vs. Bears
Patriots (-9) vs. Panthers
Titans (-1) at Texans
Eagles (Pick) at Chargers
Raiders (+3) at Broncos
Last Week: 2-4
2017 Record: 8-5

NCAA Week 5 Bets
Duke (+7) vs. Miami
Wisconsin (-14) vs. Northwestern
Iowa (+4) at Michigan State
Virginia Tech (+8) vs. Clemson
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 8-5