Week 2 Recap

It always feels good to get your first win of the year. I felt like it had been awhile since I started 1-0 in this league, and even though we don't have the 2012 league page, I discovered that I haven't led off with a win since 2011! For reference, that year Kimmel was in the league, Gutman's team name referenced Curb Your Enthusiasm (which is luckily relevant again), and Nick's team name referenced Jerry Sandusky (which is unluckily relevant again). Regardless, I'm on the board after two weeks, something that can't be said for Weissbard, Alan, BAM, and Belfer. Better luck this week guys.

Also, Alan and Z still need to name their divisions.


Playoff Odds

After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs

After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs

Still no real delineation here other than at the extremes. It's crazy that we've only had three teams start 3-0 in the last four years, but we're guaranteed at least one more with our Matchup of the Week, and with Gutman/Esco taking on winless teams, we could have as many as three this year alone. There's not a huge difference between 2-1 and 1-2, but our four 0-2 teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.


Team of the Week - Gutman

Levine put up an impressive point total, but he nearly doubled up Belfer, so I'm giving this to Gutman for winning the Matchup of the Week after losing David Johnson. The week could have been even bigger if he didn't start Kerwynn Williams, but he improbably has a decent RB combo with both Washington guys now that Fat Rob broke a rib. I don't know if relying on the Redskins ground game, Vikings passing attack, and a Jet is sustainable, but these wins are banked.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Jermaine Kearse over Adam Thielen

No really close games this week, so unfortunately we have more Gutman love.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Alvin Kamara and Sterling Shephard over Matt Forte and Allen Hurns

Again, no close games. Though that Hurns pickup looks pretty nice right now even if Z hasn't benefitted yet.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Where are the studs?

Alex Smith is QB1, Aaron Rodgers is QB8. Kareem Hunt is RB1, LeVeon Bell is RB25. Michael Crabtree and J.J. Nelson are WR1 and WR2, Antonio Brown is WR3, but Julio is WR18 and ODB has alternated between injured and ineffective. I have done absolutely no research on this, but I'm pretty sure that a team composed entirely of $1 players could outscore the most expensive players at each position. I have no clue which of these performances will last (likely none of them, though Hunt looks legit and the Giants look reeeeally bad), but whoever guesses right and makes a good trade will probably make a deep playoff run.


Biggest Matchup of Week 3 - Esco vs. Bennett

Looking at his roster, I have no idea how Bennett's team is 2-0. Looking at his schedule, it makes a lot more sense. This should be his first real matchup of the season, and he takes on an Esco team that is tied (to the tenth of a point!) with Levine for the most points scored and is impossibly deep. Both teams have QBs that play on SNF or MNF, but despite Bennett getting last licks, I think Esco's team has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling. I'll put Esco at 3-0.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-1


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 3 Bets
Ravens (-4) at Jaguars (London)
Lions (+3) vs. Falcons
Colts (Pick) vs. Browns
Bills (+3) vs. Broncos
Patriots (-13) vs. Texans
Seahawks (+3) at Titans
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 6-1

NCAA Week 4 Bets
California (+16) vs. USC
Michigan (-10) at Purdue
Mississippi State (+5) at Georgia
Georgia Tech (-7) vs. Pittsburgh
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 5-5

Shout out to Barnard who missed a 7-way parlay and a $750 payout thanks to Gostkowski missing an extra points. Ball Don't Lie.