Week 1 Recap

Week 1 is always weird, for obvious reasons, but this feels like the weirdest Week 1 in fantasy history. The top two picks by a long shot were DJ and LeVeon, and not only did they wildly disappoint, but DJ is now gone for at least 2 months, and more likely the season considering the Cardinals won't have much to play for in December. The rest of the top guys didn't really show up either, other than Antonio Brown, and of the top eleven Week 1 scorers, 4 of them are defenses. I think a lot of this boils down to terrible O-Line play, as that doomed the offenses in Cincy, Houston, Seattle, and Washington among others. Lines tend to play better over the course of the season, so things aren't settled yet, but I feel like this season will be determined by which O-Line can keep its shit together and stay healthy.

Special shout out to BAM for failing to break 30 even after we added half-PPR and slightly bumped DST scoring. To make things even more impressive, even if you played your optimal lineup, you would have only added 1.3 points to your total. Absolutely amazing. I can't wait for Marshall to make his grand reappearance in this year's Christmas card.

Finally, holy hell those waiver bids. I understand BAM's desperation in the case of Buck Allen, but Mike Tolbert? That would be like dropping $61 on Chris Johns-- Alan what the fuck? Absolutely insane. I'm in a 16-team dynasty league with 45-man rosters and no one picked up CJ, so he might be worth $10 here. Given the half-PPR scoring system, the Hurns and Ellington bids were reasonable and are much more likely to pay off than those other monster bids. This was a fitting end to an absurd Week 1.


Playoff Odds
Things are slightly different this year with the modified NiJo Rule and increased focus on divisions, but historical records should still be applicable most of the time.

After Week 1:
50% (14/28) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
39% (11/28) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs

After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs

The old Irish saying goes "You can't make the playoffs in the first two weeks, but you can certainly fucking miss them."


Team of the Week - Esco
Esco wins this week not just because he scored the most total points, but also because he did it while going up against one of the two 29-point DSTs, as well as a tight end who basically got his entire scoring line from one enormous play. Those are easy weeks to lose (or to win, in Weissbard's case), but Esco pulled it out with an extremely balanced and successful roster that has at least three bench players that could start for half the league. Now comes the tough part: Is it better to trade depth for a starter upgrade, or do you hold onto it to battle the inevitable injuries that are likely to strike?


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman's WR2 and Flex decisions
There wasn't one obvious great call by anyone this week, but Z starting Shephard and Sproles over the combination of Prosise, Jamaal Charles, Chris Hogan and Robby Anderson did prove to be the difference in his Matchup of the Week against Ajay.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah and Martavis Bryant over Mike Gillislee
On the flip side, lots of us made choices that lost matchups. In addition to my opening night fiasco, I could have won if I started Bradford over Cam, but I'm giving myself the award because I spotted Levine 43.1 points and still should have won the week. Honorable mention goes to Ajay picking the wrong Panthers RB and Barnard getting cheated by Tom Brady. Fantasy is back!


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Belfer and Reap's collective no-show
It appears that the whole really was greater than the sum of its parts. Reap got the win because BAM is just hilarious, but the former duo combined to put up just 11 points more than Esco. I don't know if this will continue, but I'm all for the narrative that these two literally need each other to survive.


Biggest Matchup of Week 2 - Gutman vs. Marco
This was easy, as it's the only matchup between 1-0 teams. It's also Gutman's first week without David Johnson, so we get to find out if a team intentionally starting Chris Thompson and Kerwynn Williams can get off to a 2-0 record. Spoiler Alert: Not a chance. Even with Rodgers closing things out, I think Marco's squad is up 20+ heading into SNF and pulls out a win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-0


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 2 Bets
Jaguars (+3) vs. Titans
Colts (+8) vs. Cardinals
Ravens (-9) vs. Browns
Raiders (-14) vs. Jets
Last Week: 3-0
2017 Record: 3-0

NCAA Week 3 Bets
Illinois (+17) at South Florida
Pittsburgh (+14) vs. Oklahoma State
Notre Dame (-14) at Boston College
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 4-2