Week 9 Recap

As we head into the final four regular season weeks, we can rule out a few more teams. As mentioned last week in this space, 3-6 or worse means your season is historically over, so it's "wait til next year" for Ajay, Marco, Esco and the latest #KumpfKurse victim, AGD. It's honestly shocking how bad I am at predicting who will win the matchup of the week. Let's jump right into the playoff discussion...

Playoff Odds

After Week 9:
No team has started 8-1 or 9-0
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (3/9) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 0-9

After Week 10:
No team has started 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
71% (5/7) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
36% (5/14) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 1-9 or 0-10

Six losses still spells doom this week, keeping Weissbard's season perpetually on the line. Every other non-eliminated team is either 6-3 or 5-4, making for a couple of juicy matchups with massive playoff implications. Ending this week at 5-5 doesn't eliminate you, but with all the potential NiJo/Division scenarios, 6-4 looks a hell of a lot nicer.


NiJo Rule Watch

Potential Party Crashers:

• Kumpf - 6th place, 3rd in scoring
• Barnard - 7th place, 4th in scoring

Potential Victims:

• BAM - 4th place, 8th in scoring
• Levine - 5th place, 12th in scoring

ESPN currently lists Barnard as 3rd place, which is not accurate due to our complicated playoff rules. If the season ended today, the NiJo rule would not need to be invoked because I am already in 6th place due to the standard seeding rules (record, then points). Despite being a Division Champ, Barnard would be out of the playoffs because the NiJo rule trumps the Division rule. Once again, despite me potentially benefiting from them this year, I think we need to simplify our playoff rules.

Playoff Predictions

1. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
2. Zacherman - BYE - Division Champ
3. BAM
4. Gutman
5. Levine
6. Kumpf

Gutman's upset of Alan keeps him out of 6th, and saves him from being potentially NiJoed. As just mentioned, this situation has Barnard in 7th as a Division Champ, and not in the playoffs assuming I end up as a top 3 scorer.

Team of the Week - Weissbard

Between subpar drafting and even worse injury luck, Weissbard has spent most of this year trotting out a shitter lineup than Bruno, which is saying something. He did benefit from some absurd schedule luck, but still, no one took him seriously as a playoff contender. Well don't look now, but Weiss almost hit 100 this week, and has a generally respectable roster. I don't know that anyone is really scared of him on a weekly basis, but if he wins out, he controls his destiny. We may be witnessing an underdog story on par with Rudy, complete with its diminutive hero.


No Lineup Decisions of the Week

Between a lack of close games, and a ton of bye weeks leading to relatively empty benches, no team won or lost a matchup based on a start/sit decision. The closest anyone came was Marco starting Devante Parker over Kapri Bibbs, but he still would have lost by less than 1. Hopefully we have better stories next week.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - The Eliminated Teams

Ajay, AGD and Esco make up 4 of our 7 Stevens Bowl champions, and 8 of our 14 Stevens Bowl participants. That success was truly impressive, but it's just as amazing that they're all eliminated after Week 9. Given the performance of the historical powers, one might guess that the first-year teams are experiencing beginner's luck, as was the case early in FALAFEL's history. But that's not the true either, as the only other eliminated teams are Bruno and Marco. It's looking more and more like we're going to get the equivalent of a Cubs/Indians matchup between two long-suffering teams in the Stevens Bowl.


Biggest Matchup of Week 10 - Gutman vs. Kumpf

I've avoided putting myself in most of these sections throughout the year, but the playoff implications here are too big to ignore. Alan vs. Zacherman is obviously a huge matchup, but both of these teams are extremely likely to make the playoffs. Weissbard vs. Levine will be an ugly slugfest, and honestly I've given Weiss too much love already this week. So I settled on the Crow's Nest Bowl, where byes will play a big factor. Gutman loses T.Y. Hilton, but can just plug in Alshon after trade raping Esco. On my side, the over reliance on Oakland is going to hurt a lot as I'm likely starting multiple players in the Tennessee passing game, as well as Eli. I like my team, but not enough to win without my Raiders. Gutman, you've been #Kursed.