Week 8 Recap

I make a lot of terrible predictions in this space. This year, I've been so bad at picking the winner of my self-chosen Matchup of the Week, that the kids have started calling it the Kumpf Kurse, with Bennett being the latest casualty. But the first prediction I made is looking pretty good, as my preseason Stevens Bowl picks, Zacherman and Levine, look like solid bets to be relevant in December. Unfortunately, while Z is still an absolute contender, we have a new favorite to win it all. After his trade rape of Marco last week, I think Barnard has the best team as the calendar turns to November. The best team doesn't always equate to a Chef's Coat, or even a playoff berth, but if Barnard wins this thing in my first season as Commish, something has gone horribly wrong. This is in no way a reverse jinx.


Playoff Odds

After Week 8:
No team has started 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
63% (5/8) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (4/13) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 0-8

After Week 9:
No team has started 8-1 or 9-0
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (3/9) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 0-9

As you can see, being 6-3 or better after Week 9 is a huge delineation, and there is essentially no difference between 5-4 and 4-5. We currently have five teams that are 5-3 or better, meaning that at least one playoff spot is "up for grabs." It also means that all is not officially lost for the multitude of 3-5 teams out there, and that only Bruno is eliminated based on historical league performance. Given the current breakdown of the standings, shit is going to get very interesting between the NiJo Rule and the Division races.


NiJo Rule Watch

Potential Party Crashers:

• Kumpf - 7th place, 3rd in points
• Barnard - 8th place, 4th in points

Potential Victims:

• Levine - 2nd place, 12th in points
• Gutman - 5th place, 5th in points
• BAM - 6th place, 6th in points

Levine's win over Gutman was huuuuge last week as it distances him from the vulnerable 6th place in the standings. Given Barnard and my chances of ending up top 3 in scoring, we are increasingly likely to see the NiJo rule enacted this year.

Playoff Predictions

1. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
2. Zacherman - BYE - Division Champ
3. BAM
4. Levine
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule over Gutman

This shows how truly important Levine's win was this week, and how much Gutman is gonna hate reading this week's post.

Team of the Week - Zacherman

Yes, he had the most points this week and one of the biggest weeks of the year. But he did so with his entire bench on a bye. If you're a fan of roster quirks, and I am, this week was fun for Z. No start/sit decision to make, limited pressure going up against Weissbard, and he put up an insane score. This team is inherently flawed at three positions, but given the way Tom, Gronk and DeMarco are playing, it might not end up mattering.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - BAM starting C.J. Fiedorowicz over Jason Witten

When I saw you guys started the notorious CJF last week, I assumed it was as a bye-week fill in for Witten. I didn't realize he was your secret weapon. You benefited from some extremely questionable roster management from Bennett, but that doesn't change the fact that your TE held down the fort while Beckham was on a bye.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week

This was quite a battle between Bennett and Gutman. Some of these decisions were just bad luck, but all of them cost these teams their matchups:

• Bennett starting Kadeem Carey over T.J. Yeldon
• Bennett starting Cameron Meredith over Vernon Davis
• Bennett starting Cameron Meredith, Mike Evans, and Michael Thomas over Rishard Matthews
• Gutman starting Mark Ingram over Tim Hightower
• Gutman starting TY Hilton and Brandon LaFell over Stefon Diggs, Tim Hightower, Jordan Matthews, and Russell Shephard
• Gutman starting Demaryius Thomas over Stefon Diggs

In the end it comes down to Carey/Yeldon vs. LaFell/Diggs to me. Both of these were abjectly terrible decisions at the time, and they honestly may cost both teams playoff berths. In Gutman's own words:

"Let me just say, I was traveling for work and drank half a bottle of tequila, then put in LaFell because I got in an argument with a Redskins fan coworker, then slept through the game."

That's some New Gutman shit if I've ever heard it, but I do respect the drunk/spiteful lineup management. Bennett starting Kadeem Carey over T.J. Yeldon is the Worst Lineup Decision of the Week.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman vs. Levine

In a matchup of supposed playoff teams, Gut and Levine combined for 95.8 points, less than three teams put up individually. This tells me two things: 1) Neither of these teams is a favorite moving forward, and 2) The next five weeks will be verrrrrry interesting, as the standings don't nearly match the quality of the teams at this point.


Biggest Matchup of Week 9 - Weissbard vs. AGD

The eventual playoff teams are still fully in flux, but the following teams (other than Bruno) can be "eliminated" by being 3-6 or worse after this week: Esco, Weissbard, AGD, Marco and Ajay. Weiss and AGD face each other, making this a Loser Leaves Town matchup. AGD is decimated by byes, but has built some nice depth and will be able to put together a solid lineup anyway. Weissbard has a ragtag squad of underdogs who still have yet to break 75 points. It's been a nice run for Weiss after his early rash of injuries, but his playoff dreams die this week. AGD, you've been #Kursed.