Week 10 Recap

The Kurse strikes again! This is honestly getting silly. I've made a legitimate prediction for who will win the Matchup of the Week every week  since Week 2 in this space, and my record is 0-9. In my defense, I picked some pretty damn good matchups, as most of them were decided by less than 10 points, but the fact that I haven't been right once? Now I know what Barnard feels like on a daily basis. I've also spread the love in terms of Kursing teams, other than AGD, who I've hit up three times. Heavy are the heads that wear the crown I guess.

Also, because we're now dangerously close to the playoffs, this is where we would stand if the season ended today (ignoring the default ESPN seeding and using our NiJo/Division rules):

1. Zacherman - BYE - Division Champ
2. Levine - BYE
3. Alan - Division Champ
4. Kumpf
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. BAM

Gutman would currently miss the playoffs by 1.1 points. Also, don't look now but Alan is in a bit of a freefall after losing 4 of his last 5. He already owns the biggest collapse in recent history, missing the playoffs after being 7-4 a few years back. Given his total points, I think Alan only misses the playoffs if he loses out, but the Masandiassance is on life support.

Playoff Odds

After Week 10:

No team has started 10-0 or 9-1

100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs

100% (6/6) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs

71% (5/7) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs

36% (5/14) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/4) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/6) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs

No team has started 1-9 or 0-10

After Week 11:

No team has started 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2

100% (6/6) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs

88% (7/8 of 7-4 teams made the playoffs

38% (3/8) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs

33% (2/6) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/7) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs

No team has started 1-10 or 11-0

This week tells a different story from last week, where 6 losses was a death blow. After 11 weeks, having 5 or 6 losses is essentially identical. You need to win out to have a realistic shot, but if you win out, you're in pretty good shape. This means Ajay, Marco and even Weissbard still have an outside shot of crashing the playoff party. They would potentially be NiJoed out, but crazier things have happened. I mean, Levine is looking at a bye while being 12th in scoring! This gives us 4 very interesting matchups in Week 11.

NiJo Rule Watch

Levine, Barnard and I escaping with wins makes it a lot less likely that we'll see the NiJo (or Division Champ) rule enacted, but it's still possible if things break the right/wrong way.

Playoff Predictions

1. Zacherman - BYE - Division Champ
2. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
3. Kumpf
4. Barnard - Division Champ
5. BAM
6. Levine

This puts Levine in danger of being NiJoed, but it would require Gutman to make up 35 points on me to get into the top three. Then again, if Levine keeps his highwire act going, this won't matter anyway.

Team of the Week - Bruno

It's not just that he got the high score of the week, but as usual in this space, it's how he did it. First of all, he got big games from the random ass dudes that he drafted for $1 in Perriman, Powell, Smitty and Crowder. Next, he dropped an absurd $25 bid for Tampa's D, only to see them put up their best performance of the season by 11 points. But finally, after weirdly picking up Mariota, he curiously traded him for Kyle Rudolph, who also put up a big game! He was on Bruno's bench, but still! Congrats Bruno. This may be your last hurrah, but it's a hurrah nonetheless.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Tyler Eifert over Julius Thomas

Lots of close matchups this week, so I won't list out all of the decisions that were made. Given that I gave Barnard a Worst of the Week award for making this exact decision a few weeks ago, it's only fair that I give him credit when he gets it right. Why he's carrying two TEs is beyond me, but I guess it gives the potential for a bad lineup decision every week, so I'll take it.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - BAM starting C.J. Fiedorowicz over Jason Witten

With respect to Gutman's James Starks/Alshon situation, and AGD's entire team, I have to also return the favor on BAM, who got Best of the Week for this situation previously. You know what they say, if you have two tight ends, you have no tight ends, and you guys really have no tight end. That loss hurts.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Close Matchups Galore

After no matchup was closer than 12 points in Week 9, Week 10 gave us 5 such matchups. This obviously makes lineup management a huge deal, and while we did well overall as a league, teams that don't have a clear-cut starting lineup will have to think long and hard each week moving forward.

Biggest Matchup of Week 11 - Alan vs. Bennett

As shown above, you really want to be 7-4 or better after Week 11. We have three matchups between teams that are in the thick of the playoff race, but two of them are guaranteed to end with at least one team at 7-4. The other is me vs. BAM, and given our points scored, both teams are likely to remain in the playoff picture anyway. That leaves us with Alan's free-falling team trying to right the ship against BMO, who is trying to keep their season alive. Alan's team is finally back at full strength after a string of byes and injuries, so he looks to have the upper hand, but Bennett's WR duo are capable of keeping him in any game. I think Booker's bye will end up being Bennett's undoing, so while I hate to do this, I have to go with Alan. We'll see if the Masandiassance can reverse the #Kurse.